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Gastelum got his title shot based off beating a Bisping who got KO'd by GSP 3 weeks beforehand, and a dodgy and debatable decision win over Jacare. Even past it Weidman was able to destroy him. In reality his striking is limited and he's not very athletic, he relies on his chin and his opponents walking themselves into his range. People say Israel's performance against Anderson is not impressive but truth be told I am not sure Gastelum can beat Anderson either. Even though Anderson is past it physically his skills and brain are still there.
I agree on a lot of counts. I think it doesn’t make sense why he can’t make 170. But at MW he’s definitely ‘live’ against anybody. He lost to Weidman cuz eventually the size mattered when they grappled in the 3rd.
I just think Izzy hasn’t proved himself in the grappling yet.
I don’t know how the fight will play out but I could see Izzy catching a slick head kick somewhere or just smoothly use his range and batter Kelvin. Or I could see Kelvin coming on in the later rounds and eventually finishing on the mat with a TD or maybe even a knock down.
I always at least give the advantage to the party with the better grappling ability for obvious scoring reasons.