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Invicta FC 31 Jandiroba vs Morandin

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Aug 27, 2018.

  1. null Gold Belt

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  2. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Unibet got odds for the main event
    Jandiroba -360
    Morandin +245

    For sure taking a stab at Morandin at those odds
     
  3. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Bet-at-home got odds for the whole event, juiced as fuck though and I don't know how to change to american odds on their site

    upload_2018-8-31_19-32-12.png
     

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  4. Karmello Purple Belt

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    I really like watching Morandin fight, she has great boxing, heavy hands and is good in the clinch, but I'm a bit hesitant to bet her here. Morandin gets taken down so easy and in a 5 rounder against Jandiroba, she will likely be on her back a lot and get subbed or otherwise lose a decision because she gets controlled on the ground.

    How do you see this one playing out, you think she can keep it standing?
     
  5. null Gold Belt

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  6. piglord Black Belt

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    morandin has decent hands but i think this is a terrible match-up for her.
     
  7. Karmello Purple Belt

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    Yeah I agree, this fight is definitely a pass for me
     
  8. null Gold Belt

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    If it's a terrible matchup for one of the fighters, why is it a pass?
     
  9. piglord Black Belt

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    price presumably. personally i got dalby + jandiroba close to evens and i'm happy about it.
     
  10. Karmello Purple Belt

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    The odds on Jandiroba are 1,30 and I really don't like playing those odds here and although it's a bad matchup for Morandin, she can crack and has serious power for the 115 division. I think Jandiroba will win this most of the time by taking her down and controlling her, but I could see a scenario were she get's cracked and for me 1,30 is just not worth it. If the odds on Jandiroba get better, I'll definitely play her.
     
  11. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Right or wrong, I think the typical mindset (me included) is that it's much harder to find "value" with a prohibitive favorite. Obviously the only thing that value is really is the actual perceived likelihood of an outcome to a bettor vs what the odds say is the likelihood of that outcome. But I think (for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the inherent unpredictability of a sport where one mistake can mean the end of a fight 1 second later) the natural tendency is to pass more often on large favorites, even if a bettor sees some perceived value in their line.

    To put it more simply, it's intellectually "easier" to justify small risk for potential large reward vs larger risk for potentially smaller reward. Even when the math dictates that a play on the 2nd scenario is warranted.

    That's not to say I won't bet favorites, even large ones. I do it often. But I know that subconsciously I need more value in betting a big favorite than I do betting a big dog. I suppose because of the capital that I'm risking from my BR. That doesn't mean my position is correct or mathematically justified. I'm just trying to explain it the best I can.
     
  12. Karmello Purple Belt

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    Missed out on Dalby, but looks like you got a great price on him. What odds did you get him at? He's down to 1,15 now :(
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2018
  13. null Gold Belt

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    I get what you guys are saying. For me, I also take into account the fact that there are limited fights to bet on this weekend so that makes me more likely to throw down on some odds I might have thought were marginal value propositions otherwise just to entertain myself.
     
  14. Lightbringer Yellow Belt

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    Jandiroba should be an implied 90 percent. She has a massive td, ground, and cardio advantage. Morandin also had her gas tank sapped vs Souza from all the grappling which Jandiropa will follow the blueprint of. If you are hesitant because of a potential strawweight getting a ko, you need to actually ask yourself what the risk of that is happening. I highly doubt Morandin gets a knockout more than 1 of 10. This fight is a mismatch and Jandiroba is going to steam roll her.
     
  15. Karmello Purple Belt

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    IMO Jandiroba will probably win more than the 77% of the time that her 1,30 odds stand for, but I'm really not to confident, so I'm just gonna pass on this fight. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that playing Jandiroba isn't the right side here, but I'm just not feeling like playing her at this price.
     
  16. piglord Black Belt

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    i got him between -250 and -300. have about £400 tied up in two parlays - one with ferreira and one with jandiroba.
     
  17. null Gold Belt

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  18. null Gold Belt

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  19. Xuh Silver Belt

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    Firminho might be worth a bet at the longish odds.
    Admittedly I haven't seen her fight much but she has some reasonable wins. Gonzales looked good last fight, but not so good in her UFC fights. Used a £20 freebet on Royal Panda @ odds of 3.75 on her :rolleyes:
     
  20. null Gold Belt

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    Pathetic that 5Dimes and the major sportsbooks aren't at least copying these Euro lines with $50 openers like they often do lately and are ignoring another Invicta FC card once again.
     

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