Interesting/Relevant JDS Statistic

[berimBOWLoh]

For him that seems to have worked well, but take Chuck Liddell for example - he simply popped back to his feet literally as he was being taken down, which conserves energy he'd use in a prolonged ground battle that he likely wouldn't win. JDS largely does the same thing. It can being tiring to do over and over again, I'm sure, but do you see him submitting Cain or sweeping him?

Cain is just so relentless, even if you pop up its hard to get separation and you end up in a grappling battle again or a dirty boxing battle which Cain is much better at than JDS as well.

I agree that trying to sweep or sub Cain is likely to end up with JDS getting beat up. He is just in a bad spot once Cain closes the distance. He doesnt have good footwork moving backwards or much offense. This is why i see Cain as a good favorite if he plays his pressure game which im sure he will. JDS needs to find a way to keep some distance and be able to get off his strikes. He needs to circle better and make Cain pay anytime he tries to close in.

 

[Mikeyz]

Most are saying JDS' only chance to win the rubber match vs Cain is to land a big shot early in the fight. So, how often is JDS able to land a big shot early on his opponents? The answer is: very often.

Here's the amount of time elapsed in each of his UFC fights before he lands a shot on his opponent hard enough to either drop them or at least visibly hurt them:

Werdum: 1:15
Struve: 0:48
Cro Cop: 1:27
Yvel: 1:59
Gonzaga: 3:43
Nelson: 1:56
Carwin: 4:15
Cain: 0:56
Mir: 4:42
Hunt: 1:37

Average time until JDS lands a big shot on his UFC opponents: 2:15

For people saying that JDS' first win over Cain was a fluke, because he was "lucky" that he found a way to land a big shot early, I don't think that's the case. Landing big shots early is JDS' game and he's good at it. The shot he landed on Cain in the first fight was similar to what he was able to land on Hunt, a much more experienced striker than Cain. The rematch with Cain is the only fight where he didn't hurt his opponent early. That fight is the outlier, not the first fight.

I'm not saying that JDS should be the favorite, or that him KO'ing Cain is some kind of given, but saying that a JDS win would require "luck" is a stretch. Statistically speaking, Cain has less than half a round to get JDS down, wear him out, or land his own big shot early.

Looking forward to Saturday. Cain's an awesome fighter and if my favorite fighter has to lose twice to somebody, I'd prefer it to be a guy like Cain. May the best man win!

Interesting stats there. I am surprised Mir lasted 4:42 with JDS before finally getting tagged. i would have thought it would have been alot earlier then that

 

[marcus_kane]

Cain is just so relentless, even if you pop up its hard to get separation and you end up in a grappling battle again or a dirty boxing battle which Cain is much better at than JDS as well.

I agree that trying to sweep or sub Cain is likely to end up with JDS getting beat up. He is just in a bad spot once Cain closes the distance. He doesnt have good footwork moving backwards or much offense. This is why i see Cain as a good favorite if he plays his pressure game which im sure he will. JDS needs to find a way to keep some distance and be able to get off his strikes. He needs to circle better and make Cain pay anytime he tries to close in.

Agreed. 'Ride his bike' as Goldberg would say.

 

[Uncommon Valor]

Interesting, TS. Very interesting.

 

[MartyMcFry]

I really believe JDS is going to try and hit big shots early. If he sees openings, he's not going to waste it and throw something, but the thing is, I see Cain going all over the place and not letting Junior time a shot, which is why I think it's going to be hard for Junior to land one. Hope Junior can, but I still feel Cain is going to beat him and stop him.

 

[Silverstar17]

I'm hoping Cigano shuts a lot of people up.

First round. Which has been by prediction since the fight was announced.

Amen brother.