Interesting/Relevant JDS Statistic

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Towelie by TKO, Oct 14, 2013.

  1. Towelie by TKO

    Towelie by TKO The Continental Belt

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    Most are saying JDS' only chance to win the rubber match vs Cain is to land a big shot early in the fight. So, how often is JDS able to land a big shot early on his opponents? The answer is: very often.

    Here's the amount of time elapsed in each of his UFC fights before he lands a shot on his opponent hard enough to either drop them or at least visibly hurt them:

    Werdum: 1:15
    Struve: 0:48
    Cro Cop: 1:27
    Yvel: 1:59
    Gonzaga: 3:43
    Nelson: 1:56
    Carwin: 4:15
    Cain: 0:56
    Mir: 4:42
    Hunt: 1:37

    Average time until JDS lands a big shot on his UFC opponents: 2:15

    For people saying that JDS' first win over Cain was a fluke, because he was "lucky" that he found a way to land a big shot early, I don't think that's the case. Landing big shots early is JDS' game and he's good at it. The shot he landed on Cain in the first fight was similar to what he was able to land on Hunt, a much more experienced striker than Cain. The rematch with Cain is the only fight where he didn't hurt his opponent early. That fight is the outlier, not the first fight.

    I'm not saying that JDS should be the favorite, or that him KO'ing Cain is some kind of given, but saying that a JDS win would require "luck" is a stretch. Statistically speaking, Cain has less than half a round to get JDS down, wear him out, or land his own big shot early.

    Looking forward to Saturday. Cain's an awesome fighter and if my favorite fighter has to lose twice to somebody, I'd prefer it to be a guy like Cain. May the best man win!
     
  2. Jose Aldo Nova

    Jose Aldo Nova in vino veritas Platinum Member

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    Interesting! Didn't think about that - thanks, TS.
     
  3. 315MMAFighter

    315MMAFighter MąïȚře Đë Đəğåť§ - Pure Dominican Platinum Member

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    Nice TS, Junior always has the punchers chance
     
  4. Senzo Tanaka

    Senzo Tanaka Silver Belt

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    JDS' resume is hard to beat. It's better than Cain's.

    He just had a really bad gameplan going in against Cain in the 2nd fight and he underestimated him. He stuffed what, 7 or more takedowns from Cain in the first around before finally getting tired and getting blasted. Every time he was taken down, he would get right back up, further making him more tired only to get taken down again.

    Your strategy against a high level wrestler like Cain and GSP can't be to stuff every take down and then keep getting up. Horrible idea. You ARE going to get taken down and you ARE going to gas.

    I'd stay on the outside out of takedown range, try to throw the big shot and use your BJJ if it hits the ground to sweep or sub. Don't waste the energy to keep getting up.
     
  5. Aza

    Aza Orange Belt

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    Nice thread. well put.
    Always found silly people claiming JDS's first win over Cain was plain luck. He landed a punch, and he does that all the time.
     
  6. berimBOWLoh

    berimBOWLoh Silver Belt

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    all Cain needs to do is make JDS move backwards from the beginning and it wont matter. JDS doesnt have KO power moving backwards and frankly isnt much of a striker moving backwards.

    If you watch the 2nd fight right out the gate Cain is backing JDS up. That was the beginning of the end.

    All those fighters you listed have one thing in common. They arent pressure fighters, are either slow or strikers themselves that gave JDS room to work. Cain in the 1st fight was clearly not as mobile and made the same error.
     
  7. Aza

    Aza Orange Belt

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    Either that or be more explosive and relentless...
    I feel like he was a bit too hesitant on the last Cain fight.
     
  8. PowermmA

    PowermmA Purple Belt

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    Good thread mate
     
  9. Jarnee

    Jarnee Blue Belt

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    JDS knows he can stuff takedowns and return to his feet AND obviously take Cain's punches, so will be a different fight I think. His only fear is gasing out so will try to remedy that somehow?
     
  10. GrindingANARCHY

    GrindingANARCHY Banned Banned

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    Good job TS. I support this thread.
     
  11. mccallievols

    mccallievols Gold Belt

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    i actually learned something, well done towelie
     
  12. IloveTHIS

    IloveTHIS Gold Belt

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    Good thread. Im incredibly sick of people talking this stupid nonsense that JDS landed a "lucky" punch.

    he threw a strike intended to hurt Cain as much as possible. His strike landed. It completed the objective. LOL at luck.
     
  13. Break Brick

    Break Brick Black Belt

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    [​IMG]
     
  14. BambooWater

    BambooWater Orange Belt

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    JDS set Cain up and caught him sleeping.

    He is awake now
     
  15. Biggs34

    Biggs34 Green Belt

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    Good analysis. I see why you were Frank Dux' shidoshi.
     
  16. VictorCosta

    VictorCosta Brown Belt

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    Also the kick ko now.
     
  17. Chapter40z

    Chapter40z Red Belt

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    Cheers mate, quality thread.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. GrindingANARCHY

    GrindingANARCHY Banned Banned

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    I'm hoping Cigano shuts a lot of people up.

    First round. Which has been by prediction since the fight was announced.
     
  19. VictorCosta

    VictorCosta Brown Belt

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    The Only problem is to get a sub or a swep will also gas JDS.
     
  20. jsmooth

    jsmooth Orange Belt

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    So rare for a thread to get so much love lol
     

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