Most are saying JDS' only chance to win the rubber match vs Cain is to land a big shot early in the fight. So, how often is JDS able to land a big shot early on his opponents? The answer is: very often. Here's the amount of time elapsed in each of his UFC fights before he lands a shot on his opponent hard enough to either drop them or at least visibly hurt them: Werdum: 1:15 Struve: 0:48 Cro Cop: 1:27 Yvel: 1:59 Gonzaga: 3:43 Nelson: 1:56 Carwin: 4:15 Cain: 0:56 Mir: 4:42 Hunt: 1:37 Average time until JDS lands a big shot on his UFC opponents: 2:15 For people saying that JDS' first win over Cain was a fluke, because he was "lucky" that he found a way to land a big shot early, I don't think that's the case. Landing big shots early is JDS' game and he's good at it. The shot he landed on Cain in the first fight was similar to what he was able to land on Hunt, a much more experienced striker than Cain. The rematch with Cain is the only fight where he didn't hurt his opponent early. That fight is the outlier, not the first fight. I'm not saying that JDS should be the favorite, or that him KO'ing Cain is some kind of given, but saying that a JDS win would require "luck" is a stretch. Statistically speaking, Cain has less than half a round to get JDS down, wear him out, or land his own big shot early. Looking forward to Saturday. Cain's an awesome fighter and if my favorite fighter has to lose twice to somebody, I'd prefer it to be a guy like Cain. May the best man win!