In Depth Analysis: Tony Vs Justin

[old school 2]

That was a well thought out unemotionally objective post, hats off to your ability to be... shall we say an Anti-Sherdogesque type of poster...lollipop

There are certain fans that cannot see logic, will not allow themselves to step out from Mom and Dad’s basement to view the world of MMA without allowing their passion to impede or jade dat viewpoint. Amazingly whilst Canner and Khabob are polar opposites, their fans are absolutely unequivocally cut from the same fabric.

I’m a huge El Cucuy proponent and actually a JG fan as well, but I’m honestly worried about the Gaethje fight more than the Khabib matchup. With Khabib you know exactly what he’s going to do, there is no B plan, he’s much easier to fight plan against. Justin on the other hand embraces the chaos, and a majority of the time such as Tony rises to the occasion and flourishes in the war. To me that’s more dangerous than knowing what your opponent will do down to the page, paragraph, verse.

The difference is both of these 2 have proved beatable, Khabib has not.

 

[The Schmoop]

People acting like the ultra hitable tony isn’t going to taste Justin power at least once early in this fight are crazy. Justin is far more dangerous than anyone tony has faced. Pushing forward might be foolish against a guy with crazy power that loves to bite down in the pocket it. Tony’s reach is nice but it doesn’t matter if tony pushes forward and Justin doesn’t back up.

 

[mkess101]

Since he hasn’t fought a real top 5 in 4 years (Cowboy is no more top 10 than Al) this will be a good measurement of his current abilities.

Meh he's beaten the brakes off top 10 guys for years.

 

[fortheo]

Pettis, Barboza and Thomson are all pretty solid knock out guys

None of those guys have the hands that gaethje has though. The blue print to beating Pettis and barboza is pressure past their kicks. With gaethje, things aren't that simple. You stay at kicking range and risk getting your legs chopped down, or you walk into boxing range where he has the best chance of finishing you.

 

[Kumason]

Impressive Tapology stats. Not trolling... I'm curious to see them now that you mention it. You got a link?

Here's my last pick... Woop Woop!!!

...and JJ won that without the bump. I guess the bump happened though.

I didn't realize you asked for a link, I been kinda running around.

Yeah, I'm Kuma there

https://www.tapology.com/profiles/kuma

https://www.tapology.com/member_stats/picks_best_percentage?minimum=25000 (which was recently changed from 30,000 to 25k and that guy with 25.7K picks is a wicked cherry picker hence me noting I have 13k ammy fight picks while he literally has 423) My ammy pick % is 10% lower than my pro pick but I always studied and picked them anyway.

It's funny with the Joanna thing. I don't remember when but I won a season (best points after 3 months) there for $500 and it literally came down to Joanna vs Claudia Gadelha II for the title. I had Joanna decision and I thought she'd lose the first 2 and win the last 3 and rarely does a fight happen they way you think it, but it was like right on point at the perfect time. Holy shit, I was on the edge of my seat for that one lol.

I think Joanna won that Zhang fight too, I had her 3-2 but they were such crazy rounds and I miiight have had a few ginger ales while watching, I still gotta watch that one again, but I really did lean Joanna 3-2 or 4-1. I bombed in that event haha.

 

[Benoitthegr8]

Since he hasn’t fought a real top 5 in 4 years (Cowboy is no more top 10 than Al) this will be a good measurement of his current abilities.

Agreed, unfortunately I think while he seems to stil bel fighting at peak form and his unpredictability is at an all time high, the past injuries, wars and take one to give one will catch up to him in the form of an eyes wide open separation from consciousness. You just cannot fight forever with the stylistic embodiment of the JBG’s without that reality finally catching you, especially going North of 35 with near 25 MMA fights, it’s coming sooner rather than later. I remember personally between 35-40 was when it caught up to me... physically my career dropped off hard, three lower back surgeries and a deuce on the neck later is making working out a damning task these days.

 

[old school 2]

Meh he's beaten the brakes off top 10 guys for years.

None currently top 10. I would say Lee but if Al beat him twice and Al is number 12....

 

[old school 2]

People acting like the ultra hitable tony isn’t going to taste Justin power at least once early in this fight are crazy. Justin is far more dangerous than anyone tony has faced. Pushing forward might be foolish against a guy with crazy power that loves to bite down in the pocket it. Tony’s reach is nice but it doesn’t matter if tony pushes forward and Justin doesn’t back up.

Valid point.

 

[mkess101]

None currently top 10. I would say Lee but if Al beat him twice and Al is number 12....

Well Tony does send them on downsides with the bearings he gives...

 

[old school 2]

Agreed, unfortunately I think while he seems to stil bel fighting at peak form and his unpredictability is at an all time high, the past injuries, wars and take one to give one will catch up to him in the form of an eyes wide open separation from consciousness. You just cannot fight forever with the stylistic embodiment of the JBG’s without that reality finally catching you, especially going North of 35 with near 25 MMA fights, it’s coming sooner rather than later. I remember personally between 35-40 was when it caught up to me... physically my career dropped off hard, three lower back surgeries and a deuce on the neck later is making working out a damning task these days.

I would add that the higher the weight class the longer the career. Power is the last thing to go and if you’re 265 lbs you can definitely fight at 40 but tooooo much speed is needed in the manlet classes all the way up to the shark tank at 155.

 

[Myrddin Wild]

The first thing that comes up when I google Kumason sherdog breakdown is

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/my-belcher-okami-breakdown.2342917/

Good job on your breakdown and I appreciate your effort!

I think something often skipped when looking at this fight is Belcher's striking defense standing.It's not very impressive imo he get's hit too much.I was singing the same song about cerrone leading up to the nate diaz fight too much about offense and their great chins allow them to fight this way..that's how their games evolve over the years and that gap stays there.Kind of like nate diaz and his td defense cause he's so good off his back.With the evolution of the sport these small gaps are becoming big holes.

Okami is a meat and potatoes striker but he's long technical tight and effective.I still give Belcher the edge in striking by a little bit because of his all around striking game but his lack(unless he's worked on it like crazy) of defense makes this much closer.Belcher is still the lethal striker though so even though he won't win every exchange and possibly look at time's like he's losing the standup he can still finish there where I don't think okami will be able to.

All in all without getting into much detail I lean toward Okami because of his takedown abilities and his style of wrestling is good against belcher who get's taken down more by trips body locks etc as opposed to singles and doubles(if I remember correctly).I did a breakdown of the difference between okami's wrestling and sonnen's wrestling and how okami wouldn't do anything with it vs silva.I wrestled for most of my life so I analyze people's style's in that department without even thinking about it.

Belcher is still young and improving quick he's arguably on a 7 fight win streak(I think didn't look) and that learning curve with a great camp you never know how he's going to look.I don't think Okami's making the same leaps as Belcher so between that,the finishing ability of belcher and Okami possibly improving at a slow rate(which is like going backwards in this game that moves so fast) I got belcher right there too.I still favor Okami probably 60-40 because of style's but I will be rooting for belcher!

Man, Alan Belcher... that takes me back. He basically got Khabibed by Yushin... & you called that right about him not having the skills to stop it. Even worse was the fact that he played the game with him instead of playing hot potato & circling out & away from the cage. This is a perfect example of how not to fight a guy like that.

In an earlier breakdown in this thread, I pointed out how Conor had stuffed several TD attempts from Khabib... to where Khabib wasn't even touching him... but instead of making distance & re-setting... Conor dove right back into the clinch!! I couldn't believe my eyes & was on my feet throwing my hands in the air while watching live hollering at the fooking TV. (Alone in my living room after midnight... lol )

Alan did that same thing vs. Yushin. 1st round initiated a choke instead of focusing hard on pummeling & getting out of the clinch. Got thrown on his ass & lost the round. Round 2 landed a round winning punch to Yushin's face but in stead of sticking to what was working... he INITIATED ANOTHER FOOKING CHOKE. NOOOO FFS... that's not how you fight these smothering grapplers. Belcher gets on top, but gets reversed. You gotta play hot potato with these guys. This isn't the time to test your fooking black belt to honor your BJJ teacher. Askren kept telling Belcher in his corner to circle out. "Circle, Circle, Circle" was his exact quote. What did Belcher do? Went straight fooking back into the cage.

So this fight is a perfect example of what not to do while fighting that style of grappler. Hot potato is the game... & circle, circle, circle. Treat that space between the center line & the cage like there was a 10' deep pit with spikes at the bottom that will kill you instantly, because in a sense, it is the death of you for that round. If he does get a clinch on you... it's hot potato time. Act like him touching you is burning your skin & you gotta get the fook out of there before you get 2nd & 3rd degree burns.

Was cool to reminisce & re-watch that fight. Good on Belcher for recognizing when to get out of the fight game... & retiring at 31. He was all beat up with lingering injuries & said fook it. He said his eye was never the same after orbital surgery in 2010 & it still gets blurry to this day. He says it won't even dilate in the dark. Fooking Bisping gave him 8 stitches in his eye with that poke on top of that. (Wish that was turned to a NC.)

He had nagging shoulder & back issues as well & it was all taking the fun out of it for him... so he took a break... netted a couple million with business stuff... retired in his prime & went back to training people & inspiring all those around him. He's missed in MMA but it's a beautiful success story.

I know I have done whole card breakdowns here a few times long ago. My problem is my breakdowns are generally quite long, and even that was just a reply to a thread and me on autopilot saying my thoughts. I used to do it a lot on other websites, I stopped here because half of the replies are TLDR, and you put in effort and it's like almost everyone here is on adderall, like give me the f'ing cliffs man! lol, so I just don't do them here anymore, well rarely. Plus life has been so busy that it's hard to really study footage every card and stuff. I would get 5x more likes with a dumb gif than a long breakdown, not that I care about likes, it just puts things in perspective. It's like why waste your time.

That was dickish of me, but it is my pet peeve when people just throw out stats. There's three kinds of lies, lies, damn lies and statistics.

Haha... we're alike in a lot of ways. (I was a wrestler too ) I related to your breakdown of Belcher & Okami... & my breakdowns tend to be long as fook too... lol. I don't give a fook though. I do it as much for my own enjoyment as to whether or not it's appreciated by a lot of people. It helps me work out my own thoughts when I write it out as a post, so all good. Someone's going to enjoy it & so that's good enough. If not... fook em!!! haha...

it is my pet peeve when people just throw out stats. There's three kinds of lies, lies, damn lies and statistics.

Lol... the worse is when people quote fight metric stats & say "ya see!!! How the hell did so & so win when my guy got 10 more strikes." FFS...

This is back to your point about actually watching the fight & making your own determinations. For one... you get a fight metric point for a soft insignificant grazing blow just as you get 1 fight metric point if you knock the fucking guy off his feet & into the cage rocky style.

In reality, that one punch is worth 20 or 30 pitty pat punches... but you won't see that distinguished on fooking fight metric. Lets say at the start of the 1st, both guys come out & land one punch each. One guy softly touches the other... & then that other guy knocks him on his ass... the score at that moment, according to fight metric is 1 to 1. That's a big problem with quoting fight metric numbers.

Another thing is that they're inaccurate because they're done live & not adjusted afterward. Several times I've taken a very controversial round, that everyone was bitching and arguing about, & I'll watch it in slow motion. (Conor/Nate 2... round 4 for example) I'll pause & re-wind as needed & take notes on time stamp, what kind of strike, how hard it was, the effect it had on the receiver etc... in order to be 100% clear & decisive as to what my pov is & how & why I score it like I do. (Conor won that round by a long shot btw) Without fail the fight metric strike count is never correct. I get it... they're watching it & pushing their buttons live & that's a wrap... where-as I'm using technology after the fact & slowing it down n stuff... that's not the point though... the point is that "they're never right!"

So not only are fight metric numbers inaccurate... they don't distinguish solid strikes from pitty pats. So how the hell could anyone realistically hold up fight metric numbers like they're waving their national flag & declare that because of these numbers their guy won? They can't... it's a completely hollow argument.

 

[Myrddin Wild]

Since he hasn’t fought a real top 5 in 4 years (Cowboy is no more top 10 than Al) this will be a good measurement of his current abilities.

If the top 10 is made up of mostly guys who have never fought a top 5 guy... & the number 4 guy loses 3 times to those ranked 1, 2 & 6... then does that mean he should be ranked below those other guys?

It's an interesting question. "Level of competition" means a lot. I'll give it to Dan Hooker for beating everyone around him outside of the top 5, but until you get past that gate & see that same level of competition that Cowboy is losing too, it's hard for me to justify that they should be ranked higher than him... or that Cowboy's washed up. He's just not as good as the people he's fought that the others in the top 10 haven't.

I always thought Gaethje was over-rated. Look what happened to him... he killed it in the lower levels & got ktfo both times he entered the top 5. He got past the gate by beating Cowboy, but he's otherwise not that proven in the top 5. We're going to learn a lot here next week. That said, Justin has adapted his style to be less wreckless, so that might had been the difference that got him that win against Cowboy & could get him more top 5 wins, so we'll see.

 

[RockyLockridge]

Justin Gaethje has nothing to offer Tony Ferguson.

Ferg by whatever he wants, whenever he wants.

very naive take.

 

[old school 2]

If the top 10 is made up of mostly guys who have never fought a top 5 guy... & the number 4 guy loses 3 times to those ranked 1, 2 & 6... then does that mean he should be ranked below those other guys?

It's an interesting question. "Level of competition" means a lot. I'll give it to Dan Hooker for beating everyone around him outside of the top 5, but until you get past that gate & see that same level of competition that Cowboy is losing too, it's hard for me to justify that they should be ranked higher than him... or that Cowboy's washed up. He's just not as good as the people he's fought that the others in the top 10 haven't.

I always thought Gaethje was over-rated. Look what happened to him... he killed it in the lower levels & got ktfo both times he entered the top 10. He got past the gate by beating Cowboy, but he's otherwise not that proven in the top 5. We're going to learn a lot here next week. That said, Justin has adapted his style to be less wreckless, so that might had been the difference that got him that win against Cowboy & could get him more top 5 wins, so we'll see.

I hear what you are saying but there are levels to this game. Real top 5’s (Ferg,Conor and Gaejhe) went through Cowboy very fast especially Conor and Gaejhe. Cowboy has been finished 7 times in the first round. He is a great fighter and I am sure he would be one of the funnest fighters to have a beer with but he should not be taking the massive damage of fighting top 5’s any more . He could fight Hooker, Lee or Felder (near top 10’s) but he is out of his depth at 36 years old with top 5’s. Gaejhe on the other hand is 31. He had a war with #3 Dustin and since Tony has avoided fighting any top 5 , I would like to see how good he is at 36 as well. I would love to see Tony fight (in order) Khabib,Conor,Dustin and Gaejhe. If he keeps fighting only 3 times in 4 years I will be more than happy to see him with Gaejhe now.

 

[Jean-Claude_Bloodsport]

Gaejthe is fun to watch but has a glass chin and doesn't impress me with his striking other than his leg kicks. Tony via whatever he wants

 

[Myrddin Wild]

Tony has avoided fighting any top 5

Not on purpose though. he's been trying to take on the baddest man on the block now for yearz. He's been baiting teh fook out of Conor for years. It's not from lack of trying. & it's not like he's taking on scrubz in the meantime.

Ranking at the time of their fight.

• #2 RDA
• #4 Donald
• #6 - Pettis
• #8 - Kevin Lee
• #12 - Thompson (close enough to top 10 imo)
• #13 - Barbosa

If he keeps fighting only 3 times in 4 years I will be more than happy to see him with Gaejhe now.

Don't forget that he's been fighting Reptiles that live in the walls of his home. Those things are fooking nasty & they probably would've taken over the earth by now were it not for warriors like Ferg keeping them at bay. God bless those holy soldiers!! I have a feeling Gaethje's taken on a few of them himself too though... so it seems like a perfect matchup.

 

[old school 2]

Not on purpose though. he's been trying to take on the baddest man on the block now for yearz. He's been baiting teh fook out of Conor for years. It's not from lack of trying. & it's not like he's taking on scrubz in the meantime.



Don't forget that he's been fighting Reptiles that live in the walls of his home. Those things are fooking nasty & they probably would've taken over the earth by now were it not for warriors like Ferg keeping them at bay. God bless those holy soldiers!! I have a feeling Gaethje's taken on a few of them himself too though... so it seems like a perfect matchup.

He fought RDA 4 years ago and RDA had already been beat by Khabib and Eddie KTFO of him 5 months earlier so I am impressed by the win but Tony was 32 then he is 36 now and he has been fighting top 15’s since. He needs a top 5 and as much as we all want to see him and Khabib or Conor I honestly think both handle him easily. I for one want to see Tony’s face first style against some heavy hitters and Gaejhe, Dustin and Conor all hit much,much harder than anything Tony has fought in a long time if not ever.

 

[C0NCH3TO]

Justin must go all in to ktfo Tony early( 10 min max). Even if he ends up on E and gets obliterated. His best shot is to do that.

Tony needs to fight very cautious and check that defense. If he gets wild and clipped hard, Justin won’t let him recover. Once he gets to the 3rd round round, then he can go wild and put a beating on Justin.

 

[Myrddin Wild]

I didn't realize you asked for a link, I been kinda running around.

Yeah, I'm Kuma there

https://www.tapology.com/profiles/kuma

https://www.tapology.com/member_stats/picks_best_percentage?minimum=25000 (which was recently changed from 30,000 to 25k and that guy with 25.7K picks is a wicked cherry picker hence me noting I have 13k ammy fight picks while he literally has 423) My ammy pick % is 10% lower than my pro pick but I always studied and picked them anyway.

LMAO... here's my dumb ass calling out an OG picker.
I'm glad I did though, cause I'm glad I got to know you a bit in this thread.

Man, you pick every fooking thing from boxing to Bellator. I'm reduced to UFC PPV's at this point, as I could never do justice to the volume you're picking.

My group of pickerz does a competition across 10 PPV events. (we don't pick the Fight nights) After the 10th event, we crown the winner & then we re-set back to zero & do it again for another 10. Right now this next event is the 10th & final of this season. I'm in a 3 way tie for first... & the top 7 being only 1,2 (twice) & 3 correct picks off of ours... so this is gonna be an exciting run to the championship!

I haven't started digging in on the whole card yet, but I'm locked in on going with Tony to out last Justin.

In honor of this thread title... hearz a breakdown.

Ferguson vs Gaethje breakdown​

imo... All the technical analysis & styles considered... Justin's main chance is blitzing in the first 2 for a KO... & I don't see a KO happening. Anything's possible, but I'm not putting safe money on something that's never happened yet.

A decision is maybe possible... if Justin can take the first 3, but I don't think he can keep up with the pace he's about to be subjected too & if he keeps it up for 3 full rounds to the point where he wins them all... he likely over-extended himself & gets finished in the final 2.

Dustin gave it right back to Gaethje teh whole fight, & the "Poke Meister" was sucking wind in the last half of the 3rd. This is what Ferg is going to do to him as well & he's going to keep bringing it at the same pace if not a higher pace. Justin can't just develop cardio out of nowhere in 2 years. It takes time to develop that "fight hard for 5 rounds" type of resilience & unless he has absolutely dedicated his life to it... there's no way he's even close to Ferg's level of cardio. There may be some biological reasoning to cardio as well, but Justin's already shown he's not a natural 5 round cardio machine at that pace. So even if he's been balls to the wall on cardio development... he's still behind Ferg who has been developing his cardio at a higher level than Justin.

Since cardio is so important... Does Justin's late placement hit his cardio harder? or has he been preparing to step in & will be full capacity. He told ESPN that he feels he will be at 90% come fight night. Trolling or real?

In the same Mexico City (elevation 7,300 ft) that led to the downfall of Cain's cardio, Ferg worked just as hard in the 5th vs dos Anjos as he did in the 1st. Gaethje gassed in the 3rd in Glendale Arizona vs Dustin (1,150 ft) Lemoore, Ca where this event is... is way down at 230 ft... so that will help Justin. It would also help Ferg though. Any thoughts about who this will benefit more? Obviously if the fight were in Mexico City this is a no brainer for Gaethje gassing. Does he still gas at 230 ft. elevation?

Justin's leg kicks are a factor. Portier was limping after the fight & rightly so & he's not the first victim of them. So it's safe to say that he may try that vs. Ferg. I don't think he's that much better than Dos Anjos, & as we saw in that fight, Tony can play that game too. Ferg got a nice check in the first that slowed DosAnjos down big time with the leg kicks. Dos Anjos kept playing the game, but Ferg was too.

It's not all about Cardio either. Everyone's talking about Gaethje being crisper & cleaner, but Ferg can jab him teh fook up & stick n move with some out there movements that catch Gaethje. & Gaethje's chin has been marked where Ferg's hasn't

I'm not going to call this a wash for Ferg by any means, but I'm pretty sold on my pick for Ferg.

 

[Myrddin Wild]

It's funny with the Joanna thing. I don't remember when but I won a season (best points after 3 months) there for $500 and it literally came down to Joanna vs Claudia Gadelha II for the title. I had Joanna decision and I thought she'd lose the first 2 and win the last 3 and rarely does a fight happen they way you think it, but it was like right on point at the perfect time. Holy shit, I was on the edge of my seat for that one lol.

Great job, & thanx for sharing that story. So much fun to have it all come down to that one moment. There's a lot of fun to be had in just watching fights, but when you have picks on the line that are being tallied into a competition, it invests you that much further. To have the pickem championship come down to one fooking fight musta been off teh hook!!!

This isn't on the same level as a whole season boiling down to one fight... but I had a perfect pick going wit teh Fooking Knuckles/Romero card at UFC 213, & it was 2 rounds to 2 going into the 5th & I thought I had that perfect pick in the bag.

I was getting more & more on the edge of my seat throughout the whole event as everything I picked was coming up right. I was especially there & even standing up with gestures to my TV... alone after midnight... watching the main event unfold. My whole world atm was riding on this as we went into the 5th ...2 rounds to 2! haha Oh my... how fooked I was when Romero just gave up gassed teh fook out. I still haven't forgiven him for that.

I think Joanna won that Zhang fight too, I had her 3-2 but they were such crazy rounds and I miiight have had a few ginger ales while watching, I still gotta watch that one again, but I really did lean Joanna 3-2 or 4-1. I bombed in that event haha.

Well the rules legit call for "damage" as a major judging criteria... & the bump happened in the 3rd, & Weili hit it square again in the 4th making it bigger. I don't believe in rolling damage through to other rounds scoring wize, but the damage was made significantly worse in the 4th so she would have to get credited for that. Damage is one of the most significant criteria. That injury aside... those 2 rounds were very competitive & close, & so damage takes those 2 rounds imo. So I have to concede to the defeat of JJ & my fooking perfect pick that almost happened.

Strange how the judges actually scored it though. They were all over the fooking place & not all of them even gave Weili the 3rd & the 4th. I'd have to watch it again to have a really solid opinion on it, but I find it hard to think that kind of damage didn't take those rounds.

FOTY for sure unless Gaethje can keep the pace for all 5. We'll have to re-evaluate FOTY if that happenz.