Ilia is the favorite vs any LW but [...]?

[Rubios]

I'm excluding Poirier because he's on his way out. Not saying I'd favor Dustin, I didn't even think about a potential fight bw the two.

Topuria can beat anyone @ LW, but IMO he wouldn't be the favorite vs Islam, Arman, Oliveira*. Period.
I'm excluding Gamrot, Hooker... and anyone below the top #5 because that fight is not going to happen.

*Oliveira has a 13 cm advantage in reach.

And Gaethje is 10 cm taller. Justin didn't look very good against Fiziev but it was a tune-up fight. Against a calculated, responsible Gaethje like the one that won JG-DP #2... I'd say 51%/49% for Ilia.

Ilia's move to LW is ballsy. He's not only the shortest (along Arman, same height) but, due to his ape index, he has a big reach gap against anyone.
Arman's reach is almost 10 cm longer.

Thoughts?

 

[jsbx45]

Size matters.

 

[RockyLockridge]

I'd liqudate everything I own into Fiat currency and bet it all on Illa if he were the underdog to charles. I give charles a 5% chance to beat illa

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

If it's only the champ and top 5 we're counting and not including Dustin, then what you're saying is Ilia would only be a favorite over Justin and Max, right?

 

[Chagaev]

He has the advantage of a good chin over this lot of aged fighters. Not only he can take a hard shot, but he can give one back instantely. He needs it too, because he fights short and he' s gonna get kneed in the head and countered while closing the distance against guys with range.

His grappling exchanges with Bryce didn't aged well enough to say I'd favour him over Charles on the ground. He couldn't finish that Zalal guy on the ground either, but Charles might turn into a white belt when he's rocked and Topuria can rock him.

I'll always give Top the puncher's chance, but I think the reverse is also true, he takes chances coming in and could walk into something big any time. If I was to bet on Topuria against Charles, I'd need very favourable odds.

 

[Rubios]

Charles is hittable. Very hittable, even. He has survived Justin's and Dustin's power, though.

Point is: is that hittable in the pocket vs a fighter over which he has a 13cm reach advantage?

Plus is a southpaw, so finding openings and closing the distance is even harder.

Put a little respect on Olives. If Ilia and him were to fight, no outcome would surprise me.

 

[svmr_db]

I think he'd be the betting favorite over Oliveira at this point.

Would be a near pick em with Arman I imagine although I'd expect the betting market to turn Ilia into the favorite.

 

[payton]

Size matters.

its not the size that matters, its how you use it

 

[Harlekin]

Gaethje is not technical enough, we saw that against short reach Holloway.
Ilia finds those oppenings easily.

Oliveira is chinny and his defense questionable, he has a chance with knees and kicks though

I'd favor him against anyone but Islam

 

[Rubios]

If it's only the champ and top 5 we're counting and not including Dustin, then what you're saying is Ilia would only be a favorite over Justin and Max, right?

Jumping a division and being (IMO) a favorite over everyone minus the champ, #1 and #2 doesn't sound bad to me.

 

[RockyLockridge]

Charles is hittable. Very hittable, even. He has survived Justin's and Dustin's power, though.

Justin and Dustin Let him recover because they are scared ont he ground. Illa would just jump on him and either sub him or tko him charles has already been subbed/tko'd gnp in the UFC 6+ times by worse grapplers than Illa.

 

[Rubios]

Gaethje is not technical enough, we saw that against short reach Holloway.
Ilia finds those oppenings easily.

Oliveira is chinny and his defense questionable, he has a chance with knees and kicks though

I'd favor him against anyone but Islam

You'd favor Ilia vs Arman? Not arguing, just asking as you didn't mention him in your breakdown.

 

[HeadKickerV2]

I think Ilias ground game is a little overrated. I think Charles will have advantage on the ground, the question is will he be able to take it to the ground.

Charles doesn't do well when he gets rocked, and he takes a lot of risk on the feet moving forward.

Charles can win that one if he plays it smart.

 

[HatKick]

He's crisper, faster, a better athlete, and hits as hard as any lightweight. He's also younger and less damaged than most of them. I'd favor him against all of them except maybe Islam.

 

[jsbx45]

its not the size that matters, its how you use it

Keep telling yourself that LOL. It matters. Not that Illia can't hang as an elite athlete, but most of the time, its gonna be an advantage being the larger guy.

 

[Skarsgard]

Don't think he should be the favorite over anyone until we see if he can continue to perform at a higher level.

 

[svmr_db]

He's crisper, faster, a better athlete, and hits as hard as any lightweight. He's also younger and less damaged than most of them. I'd favor him against all of them except maybe Islam.

Likely hits harder than Arman sure but I wouldn't say he has him necessarily beat on these aspects.

 

[Kal-El]

I'd liqudate everything I own into Fiat currency and bet it all on Illa if he were the underdog to charles. I give charles a 5% chance to beat illa

What's the etiquette for a friendly bet on here? AV bet?
If they fight ill bet you. Riding with Charles.

 

[HatKick]

Likely hits harder than Arman sure but I wouldn't say he has him necessarily beat on these aspects.

He's definitely crisper than Arman as in he has better hands but you're right, Arman is a great athlete too. That's a hard one to call.

 

[TriangleMonkey]

Ape-index is legit and is probably my only worry with Ilia’s move to LW

He def has the skills to compete with them though

And there was a guy, although heavy as a stump, had minimal Ape-index for the weight class, exceptional power along with grappling. Former champ Hendricks