Opinion Identity Politics Won: America's Divide is Demographic, Not Ideological

If his job was moving dirt in Oklahoma sure, but a white working class guy in NY would be exposed to everything you mentioned and in much different situations, it's one thing to met a few nice black guys at your law school, it's completely different if he is a cop and actually has to work in a black area.
Maybe the white rural guy went to Iraq too and met muslims that actually wanted to kill him and not just some foreign student that happens to wear a hijab.

hiya Cuauhtemoc,

yes, of course all of this is true.

that kinda was my point, my friend.

when i wrote my post i was responding to PrinceofPain and the odd, reverse elitism that the poor and less educated use to sneer at the well educated, and i suppose, make themselves feel better at their own situations.

its kind of funny to me, but also a little wretched.

*high five*

-
IGIT
 
Anti-intellectual and proud of it.

Please, be skeptical of academics, deeply skeptical.

As well as of self interested farmers, restive auto mechanics, or shrewd businessmen who want something out of politics. Something out of you.

Almost all of them do not want something good for you or me, those passionate about politics usually want to punish their enemies, and avoid the shame of losing face.

An academic can add something valuable to the conversation, but save for a few specific areas of expertise, not much to politics and philosophy unless they studied those things deeply and really care about people, not just their people.

That is a bit rare these days, any day, ever.
 
those passionate about politics usually want to punish their enemies, and avoid the shame of losing face.

hello InternetHero,

peculiar thing to say on a political internet forum, but good to see you.

- IGIT
 
hiya Cuauhtemoc,

yes, of course all of this is true.

that kinda was my point, my friend.

when i wrote my post i was responding to PrinceofPain and the odd, reverse elitism that the poor and less educated use to sneer at the well educated, and i suppose, make themselves feel better at their own situations.

its kind of funny to me, but also a little wretched.

*high five*

-
IGIT

Politics, especially among the young and excitable activists, is not so much about helping others but punishing the rival group.

E-verify would be a lot more effective than a Wall, but the respective bases love/hate the Wall, and even more hate the side that wants/does not want it.
 
hello InternetHero,

peculiar thing to say on a political internet forum, but good to see you.

- IGIT

Greetings IGIT, always a pleasure.

As it was once said, "Do everything in love."
 
what they were exposed to, though, were black people. and asian people. and gay people. and lesbians. and jewish people. and rich people. some really rich people...and some incredibly poor people (they seem poorer at times, due to the contrast that's on regular display between the opulence of the ubber rich and the ordinary and the poor).

the other 24 year old guy, the rural one...working some salt-of-the-earth job moving dirt or working at the local auto body shop, in the middle of snow white Oklahoma....lol. its that guy who seems pretty sheltered to me. i mean, doesn't that sound even a little bit insular to you?

Oh, you can find plenty of them (SFW) in rural America but people don't exactly center their entire existence around it. They aren't what comes to mind for most when someone says "gay people"; as in, the stereotypical feminist infused public image cultivated during and after the LGB liberation movement of the 60s and 70s. I specify that because 'modern' rights itself in the west had its beginnings in 19th century Germany.
 
hi InternetHero,

Politics, especially among the young and excitable activists, is not so much about helping others but punishing the rival group.

my own first hand experience differs from your own observations, however you gleaned them

*muses*

i did, however, also attend a town hall event hosted by Sue Myrick, during the Obamacare meetings years ago. i remember an ocean of white haired, geriatric activists who hated Mr. Obama and the very concept of "government healthcare" with the heat of a thousand suns (though they did cling tenaciously to their own "government healthcare").

E-verify would be a lot more effective than a Wall, but the respective bases love/hate the Wall, and even more hate the side that wants/does not want it.

E-verify was offered to the Senate in a bipartisan proposal, but Mitch McConnell killed it, since he knew that Mr. Trump wouldnt sign it.

- IGIT
 
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Arguing with each other, begging the government to strip our rights, celebrating the silencing of each other, meanwhile we all agree on the majority of shit <Lmaoo>
We are some suckers
Quick! While the government’s shut down somebody start a new one!
 
hi InternetHero,



hmmm. i'm probably too old to be here. *sigh*

i remember going to Live Aid at JFK stadium. i also remember marching at Columbia, to push for disinvestment during the apartheid era. more recently, i remember hanging out with the Occupy group when they came down to Charlotte - they mostly wanted to untangle money from politics. there wasn't alot of talk of punishing going on at these events, just so you know.

that is to say, my own first hand experience differs from your own observations, however you gleaned them.

*muses*

i did, however, also attend a town hall event hosted by Sue Myrick, during the Obamacare meetings years ago. i remember an ocean of white haired, geriatric activists who hated Mr. Obama and the very concept of "government healthcare" with the heat of a thousand suns (though they did cling tenaciously to their own "government healthcare").



E-verify was offered to the Senate in a bipartisan proposal, but Mitch McConnell killed it, since he knew that Mr. Trump wouldnt sign it.

- IGIT

Perhaps we can view it as Mill's lamented in "On Liberty," the majority wants to oppress the minority.when given the chance. While the individual celebration at a Live Aid or Peace Rally is "doing the right thing," what the right thing amounts to is someone expressing their feelings a lot of times without examining the underlying facts.The man or woman has not inspected their beliefs in an Aristotelian fashion, but rather feelings very, very strongly about there virtues, often with little examination of the thinking behind them, the feelings in their hearts, or the utilitarian results of their feelings.

They want something, because they believe more or less.

This eventually comes out as not so much helping another group, but making the appearance of helping while punishing the other whether Jim Crow or oppressing Gay Americans. (Or Pro Choice people in different circles. Would it help crime and violence more to outlaw assault weapons, or to change policing tactics and incarceration for gun crimes? The logical answer is the former, the passions of the activists is the later, namely because it will stick it to a group they do not like - rural, white, religious, and "backwards.")

As well, seemingly agreeable people at a meeting of Green Peace or the NRA are all charitable in image when working for the same principles. If a challenge is invoked, the people become more restless.

Let's talk about hippies. I imagine we both like hippies a lot. If I ask a generally, seemingly kind hearted hippy, "What do you think about the poor in India my friend?" and he would lament, with some genuine concern the ideas of peace and eternal love.

All right, my free love friend, I ask, "What do you think of Republicans?" The mood changes, the heckles rise, and the unadulterated anger and resentment will pour out at the "black beast." with a whole strange brew of evils, perhaps real, mostly imagined about the group he does not understand, nor to be fair, want to.

I agree with you here, as a philosopher once said, "If we live good lives, the times are also good. As we are, such are the times." (Augustine of Hippo)

Certainly, in the "Age of Trump," and the more passive-aggressive age of Obama to be completely honest, seething contempt going back to the Bush/Gore battle has bred beneath the surface of Americans.

These times do tend to bring out more of that uncivilized behavior, but we might wonder, was it because we have been forgetting what it means to be civilized?

@Bald1 (He is into cultural discussions.)
 
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Maybe the white rural guy went to Iraq too and met muslims that actually wanted to kill him and not just some foreign student that happens to wear a hijab.
Maybe if you show up in somebody else's country with a gun, topple their government, kill their president, and throw their society into a chaos that ends up costing hundreds of thousands of lives, it's not *that* weird that they'd want to kill you.
 
Maybe if you show up in somebody else's country with a gun, topple their government, kill their president, and throw their society into a chaos that ends up costing hundreds of thousands of lives, it's not *that* weird that they'd want to kill you.
That's all true but it still molds a person psyche
 
You don’t know what a margin of error is if you think it’s 40% in this case.
I’ll try to explain tomorrow.

Its based on sample size and thus the point of my original point. Context is bitch but eventually I can get someone to finally get to it.

All polls are USELESS because of their tiny sample size which can be used to push a narrative. You take your small sample pool from areas most likely to produce your desired result and even if the end results are the opposite, you get to claim "Margin of error". So your sample size of 100 people show you 98% will vote for Clinton, but only 50% do...its fine, its within the 10% margin of error.

Useless. Polls prove nothing.
 
and he was gonna get that passed, how?

remind me, who contributes to political campaigns? who controls the Liberal party (neolibs)?

I live in reality, not fantasy land
The GOP is entirely composed of neoliberals while few Democrats are. Please don't use terms you don't understand.
 
You don’t know what a margin of error is if you think it’s 40% in this case.
I’ll try to explain tomorrow.

Imagine it the polls predicted a 50% tie vote between Clinton and Trump and the results were 50.1% Trumps vs 49.9% Hilary. According to him that would be an error of infinity (0.1% actual error / 0% predicted). So you may be wasting your time here.
 
Its based on sample size and thus the point of my original point. Context is bitch but eventually I can get someone to finally get to it.

All polls are USELESS because of their tiny sample size which can be used to push a narrative. You take your small sample pool from areas most likely to produce your desired result and even if the end results are the opposite, you get to claim "Margin of error". So your sample size of 100 people show you 98% will vote for Clinton, but only 50% do...its fine, its within the 10% margin of error.

Useless. Polls prove nothing.
I suspect this is hopeless, but I'll try:

Margin of error is a stat that shows how accurate the sample might represent the actual population. The wider the margin, the less accurate the poll may be.
For instance, a poll might say that it has 95% confidence that Hillary will receive 52% +/- 3% of the vote. What this means is that the poll predicts that Hillary will probably receive somewhere between 49-55% of the vote, and if the actual results fall out of that range, there was some special cause for why the poll was so wrong. The +/-3% is the margin of error in the poll, and it shows that it is still within predictions for Hillary to get less than half the votes. Taken as a whole, the poll says that Hillary is likely to win, but Trump still has a chance.

Your biggest misunderstanding is that the polls you quoted said that Hillary had a 90% chance of winning, not that she would have 90% of the votes. It's like if you had a 10 sided die, and someone told you that there was a 90% chance you would roll a 9 or below. Then you roll a 10 and call the other person an idiot getting it wrong.
 
I suspect this is hopeless, but I'll try:

Margin of error is a stat that shows how accurate the sample might represent the actual population. The wider the margin, the less accurate the poll may be.
For instance, a poll might say that it has 95% confidence that Hillary will receive 52% +/- 3% of the vote. What this means is that the poll predicts that Hillary will probably receive somewhere between 49-55% of the vote, and if the actual results fall out of that range, there was some special cause for why the poll was so wrong. The +/-3% is the margin of error in the poll, and it shows that it is still within predictions for Hillary to get less than half the votes. Taken as a whole, the poll says that Hillary is likely to win, but Trump still has a chance.

Your biggest misunderstanding is that the polls you quoted said that Hillary had a 90% chance of winning, not that she would have 90% of the votes. It's like if you had a 10 sided die, and someone told you that there was a 90% chance you would roll a 9 or below. Then you roll a 10 and call the other person an idiot getting it wrong.

<{cruzshake}>

"The margin of error has been described as an "absolute" quantity, equal to a confidence interval radius for the statistic. For example, if the true value is 50 percentage points, and the statistic has a confidence interval radius of 5 percentage points, then we say the margin of error is 5 percentage points. As another example, if the true value is 50 people, and the statistic has a confidence interval radius of 5 people, then we might say the margin of error is 5 people.

In some cases, the margin of error is not expressed as an "absolute" quantity; rather it is expressed as a "relative" quantity."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

What you are attempting to use is Sampling Theory and you are using it incorrectly. "Sampling theory provides methods for calculating the probability that the poll results differ from reality by more than a certain amount, simply due to chance; for instance, that the poll reports 47% for Kerry but his support is actually as high as 50%, or is really as low as 44%. This theory and some Bayesian assumptions suggest that the "true" percentage will probably be fairly close to 47%. The more people that are sampled, the more confident pollsters can be that the "true" percentage is close to the observed percentage. The margin of error is a measure of how close the results are likely to be."

Just more proof that political polls are as USELESS as your red herring which proves my argument which you are arguing against. If a poll can say a thing is 70% in favor of, it can actually be the opposite.

<GrassoBless>
 
<{cruzshake}>

"The margin of error has been described as an "absolute" quantity, equal to a confidence interval radius for the statistic. For example, if the true value is 50 percentage points, and the statistic has a confidence interval radius of 5 percentage points, then we say the margin of error is 5 percentage points. As another example, if the true value is 50 people, and the statistic has a confidence interval radius of 5 people, then we might say the margin of error is 5 people.

In some cases, the margin of error is not expressed as an "absolute" quantity; rather it is expressed as a "relative" quantity."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

What you are attempting to use is Sampling Theory and you are using it incorrectly. "Sampling theory provides methods for calculating the probability that the poll results differ from reality by more than a certain amount, simply due to chance; for instance, that the poll reports 47% for Kerry but his support is actually as high as 50%, or is really as low as 44%. This theory and some Bayesian assumptions suggest that the "true" percentage will probably be fairly close to 47%. The more people that are sampled, the more confident pollsters can be that the "true" percentage is close to the observed percentage. The margin of error is a measure of how close the results are likely to be."

Just more proof that political polls are as USELESS as your red herring which proves my argument which you are arguing against. If a poll can say a thing is 70% in favor of, it can actually be the opposite.

<GrassoBless>
You basically repeated my explanation without understanding it.
 
You basically repeated my explanation without understanding it.

Going to keep ignoring every actual refute eh? This one not only contains information showing you two different things and you are acting as if its the same thing and what is this the forth time I have said even if you are right, you are propping up my example that polls are useless because they can show a result that can in fact be the opposite of what it says it is.

But do keep on deflecting, it shows how useless you are to the topic as well.
 
Going to keep ignoring every actual refute eh? This one not only contains information showing you two different things and you are acting as if its the same thing and what is this the forth time I have said even if you are right, you are propping up my example that polls are useless because they can show a result that can in fact be the opposite of what it says it is.

But do keep on deflecting, it shows how useless you are to the topic as well.

You said...
You actually sad those polls showing Clinton had a 90%+ chance of winning was within the margins of error...having been 40%+ OFF...
Your use of "margin of error" is flat out incorrect, hence my comment. It's not worth acknowledging your refutations if they don't even make sense to start with.
 
Going to keep ignoring every actual refute eh? This one not only contains information showing you two different things and you are acting as if its the same thing and what is this the forth time I have said even if you are right, you are propping up my example that polls are useless because they can show a result that can in fact be the opposite of what it says it is.

But do keep on deflecting, it shows how useless you are to the topic as well.

Refute is not a noun
 
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