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Dustin is really good but I think he's too basic for Tony. The only x factor is if he's on psych meds.
Most of the winning fighters you’ve listed, Tony had not faced yet, with the exception of MJ, so they’re bad examples. Conor has had much more dominant and impressive wins than Tony.Right but feelings aren't facts. They are literally just your feelings.
Poirer got tapped out by the Korean Zombie and spectacularly knocked out by both Conor and Michael Johnson. Cub Swanson even out wrestled him, and he's a pretty average wrestler at best. Dustin hasn't faced the elite of the division since he arrived.
Conor was put away in the second round by Nate Diaz, who almost as a rule has lost to top 10 ranked opponents. He then got absolutely smashed in a completely noncompetitive fight with Khabib.
We can't say "its a toss up" with Tony who has managed 11 consecutive wins without getting put away repeatedly and has the more impressive strength of schedule compared to all his peers.