Now it is the most hyped fighted in MMA history. It's a fight between two fighters each on 12 fight winning streaks which has probably never happened ever! I get all of that but in reality, or at least on paper, it's probably not even going to be Khabib's hardest fight so far. This is why:
STANDING UP
- Tony gets taken down relatively easily and will almost invite takedowns in order to play into his dangerous bottom game.
- Tony doesn't have the 1 shot KO power required to put Khabib out early. Khabib might take some shots in the first round but he will have plenty of chances to keep trying to take Tony down and he can actually be more aggressive in the striking because Tony isn't really a sniper either. Tony is also fairly hittable and Khabib hits hard. The takedown down threat will make him even more hittable.
ON THE GROUND
- I understand that Tony is very dangerous off his back and he's good with elbows too but he's only really effective when he's inside the guard. Khabib doesn't play around in anyone's guard and he won't be in any position for Tony to effectively elbow or attack with submissions. He'll have Tony against the fence with his legs trapped and his wrist controlled. Or he'll stack Tony in his guard with his legs crossed and land heavy blows from a standing position. He also stands up in people's half guard to do his ground and pound. Tony's guard isn't exactly impossible to pass either.
- Kevin Lee had him in full mount and Danny Castillo arguably won their fight using grappling. If Khabib has him in full mount, he is trapping one of Tony's arms first before smashing him. Khabib also isn't gassing like Kevin Lee.
- Tony's glass tank is the best in the UFC imo (not just P4P) but how good will it be after 2 or 3 rounds of repeated smeshing. Tony gets chaotic and frantic when he's in bad situations like when he was flailing his arms all over the place when Kevin Lee was hitting him from full mount. Or when Pettis dropped him and he was spinning like he's in a washing machine. I can imagine him wasting his energy (yes it's actually possible, he's a human being) when Khabib has him in horrific positions which he'll achieve relatively easily.
Tony is an awesome fighter and the 2nd best lightweight ever but I've got to be honest. I think a lot of fans are inflating his chances and his abilities in general because they've bought in to this idea that Tony Ferguson is some super human whose gas tank literally does not run out or he gets dropped as part of his strategy. Or that he's the type of guy to beat Khabib off his back whilst talking to him.
Long story short, I think people have taken the 'Tony is the type of guy' joke too far and now they really see him that way.
As one of the biggest Khabib fans around here. Here's what I got for you:
Stand up: I believe Tony outstrikes Khabib. He has a freakishly long reach for LW division. He also throws a lot of spinning shit, awkward shit from crazy angles as well as elbows. He is in my opinion technically a more sound striker than Beeb.
I disagree with Khabib being a hard puncher. The haymaker he landed against Conor was beautiful, but this has so far been the first and last time we've seen something like that from him.
He won't be able to jab Ferg like he did AI due to Fergusons freakishly long reach, Ferg will outjab him at distance. Khabib will need to close the distance and get a hold of Ferg and clinch him up or go for a TD. Ferguson will be able to land elbows and spinning shit when Khabib is coming in.
One advantage Khabib has over Ferguson in the stand up department is better chin. Khabib's father pointed out several times in interviews that Khabib might be able to trade with Ferg and drop him first. This might work and would be very impressive if Khabib decided to do that.
Ground: Khabib dominates and controls him here. I don't believe in that "elbows from bottom" BS. He won't be able to land many of those with Khabibs level of top control. Sure he might land some, but those won't do the damage needed to beat Khabib and will not be the deciding factor in this fight. I do however believe Ferg might catch him with submissions, so Khabib will need to be careful. The chances of this are slim though.
Khabib will highly likely get him down, control him and pound his face into Bolivia though.
Conclusion:
Those people saying Ferguson should invite Khabib to take him down and not try to get up are delusional. Fergs best shot at winning this fight is not getting taken down, keep back of the fence, keep distance and outstrike Khabib from range using his freakish reach advantage.
