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This fight is very very simple in my opinion, DC will win a vast majority of clinch work and grappling with his only concern being a guillotine during a scramble. Neither man wants to take too many shots from the other, Jones will absolutely dominate DC if he can keep the fight at long range. If DC can close the distance and apply that patented Cain V like pressure consistently this is his fight. IMO the moments when DC closes the distance is where this fight will be determined.
Honestly I believe this is Cormier's fight to lose, I really would like him to put Jones on his back and keep him there. This should be Jones first fight where he has a grappling disadvantage and I expect to see this fact make his striking and clinch more hesitant but due to Cormier's performance last night I can safely say this fight will be my second most-anticipated fight of the year, behind only Weidman and Machida.
good point, i see the fight pretty similar to you, i think jones is too long and too fast, with too diverse of a striking game for dc at range, and i do believe it would be very difficult for dc to close the distance. but dc does have the clear cut advantage once that distance is closed. but thats a good point you brought up, about how dc's grappling advantage will affect jj's striking. great point! i could see him being a bit more tentative with a lot of the kicks he throws.