International Hydrocarbon Wars: Russia, Saudi Arabia & US Shale (Trump Saves The Day? OPEC+ Cuts 10 Million BPD)

[MVelsor]

I like this guys threads.

You always come through Big Dick, and I appreciate that. This forum is filled to the brim with hyperpartisan domestic political horseshit and endless discussion about gheys, tronnies and moslems. It's 90% fucking nonsense and I like topics that are actually relevant to global affairs.

You know, the shit that moves real weight to shake, shift and stand the world on its head. That would be science; it would be energy; it would be industrial high technology. So, that's what I discuss when I'm not batting down and bitch smacking retards misrepresenting my subculture and conflating me with pedophiles.

 

[MVelsor]

MBS and Putin are determined to crash the world economy to win a pissing contest.

It's too bad we won't get more of these moments.

Why Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Tanked Oil Markets

With the oil bet, MBS took on Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite its high costs, it could still pay off, but there’s no guarantee. It also comes amid renewed palace intrigue in Riyadh. The Crown Prince is further consolidating his position as de facto ruler and heir to the throne. In the past few days, he ordered the arrest of four senior princes, including the former crown prince whom he had already shoved aside.

The decision to boost oil output came following a meeting of OPEC members and Russia. The oil producers were discussing a proposal to slash output by 1.5 million barrels per day starting in April to prop up prices amid collapsing global demand brought on by the coronavirus outbreak, which has forced factories to shut down and people to cancel flights and other travel.

But Russia refused to go along with the plan, dooming any coordinated cut to output because Putin thought cuts would help America’s shale oil producers, which would not only benefit from higher prices but could capture market share from Russia and OPEC. MBS would have none of it. Not only did he surprise everyone, it seems, with a decision to raise output, the magnitude of the increase proved he meant war—an oil price war against Russia.

Riyadh announced it would bring an eye-popping 12.3 million barrels per day to the market—its highest amount ever and an increase of more than 2.5 million barrels per day from its current level. The number exceeds Saudi production capacity, which means the kingdom will dip into its reserves to artificially depress oil prices.



With his gambit, the crown prince has also caused troubles for President Donald Trump in an election year. Trump, who rose to MBS’ defense in the wake of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, initially tried to paint the oil price drop as good news for consumers, with “gasoline prices coming down!”. But the stock market swoon, and the realization that it could wound American oil companies and shale oil producers, some in electoral battleground states, soon changed the calculus.

 

[ElKarlo]

Imagine this scenario if the US didn't frack? The Saudis and Russians lower production and oil goes up to 2008 levels again. This would damage the economy badly.
And again Europe is benefiting from what the US dean without fracking oil prices would be high and basically everyone that isn't Norway would be feeling it.

 

[MVelsor]

[Removed]

 

[MVelsor]

Shale drillers are unbelievably resilient but given the tightening lines of credit, Russia and Saudi may actually (temporarily) get what they want this time short of federal intervention. You can expect bankruptcies in the dozens within the next couple months and hundreds if the price war carries beyond the Summer. The man isn't lying though, Saudi Arabia and Russia certainly didn't anticipate Shale being able to innovate at a level that cut their breakevens in half the last time this was attempted.

Yeah it's the small and medium guys who did it all. XOM and chevron are just writing checks.

I fully support government subsidizing / aiding our Fracking producers. We can't let them go under.

Things looked grim for American energy in the mid-2000s.

Oil production was in steep decline and natural gas was hard to find. The Iraq War threatened the nation’s already tenuous relations with the Middle East. China was rapidly industrializing and competing for resources. Major oil companies had just about given up on new discoveries on U.S. soil, and a new energy crisis seemed likely.

Everyone knew it was crazy to try to extract oil and natural gas buried in shale rock deep below the ground. Everyone, that is, except a few reckless wildcatters - who risked their careers to prove the world wrong.

Far from the limelight, Aubrey McClendon, Harold Hamm, Mark Papa, and other wildcatters were determined to tap massive deposits of oil and gas that Exxon, Chevron, and other giants had dismissed as a waste of time. By experimenting with hydraulic fracturing through extremely dense shale—a process now known as fracking—the wildcatters started a revolution.

In just a few years, they solved America’s dependence on imported energy, triggered a global environmental controversy—and made and lost astonishing fortunes. No one understands these men—their ambitions, personalities, methods, and foibles—better than the award-winning Wall Street Journal reporter Gregory Zuckerman. His exclusive access enabled him to get close to the frackers and chronicle the untold story of how they transformed the nation and the world.

 

[MVelsor]

USA is best and unstoppable.

I actually don't really see it that way, and acknowledge the multitude of domestic socioeconomic issues that leave a large segment of its citizenry behind -- when particular sectors and industries aren't the specific focus.

As @JudoThrowFiasco once eloquently stated, you could also consider it the premier venue for highly capable, hyper-competitive ambitious people. It wouldn't make sense to bring up demographics or student loan debt in threads about energy or industrial tech.

What is undeniable is that it's a continent-sized nation with wildly advantageous geographic features, an abundance of natural resources and the world's primary driver of cutting edge scientific research, technological innovation, advancement and progress. It's a stupidly powerful country.

 

[Fluffernutter]

How much longer until Arab Spring 2.0 in Riyadh?

 

[MVelsor]

How much longer until Arab Spring 2.0 in Riyadh?

How many fluffernutters do you consume per week?

(Never Eaten One)

 

[Fluffernutter]

How many fluffernutters do you consume per week?

(Never Eaten One)

Chuckle chuckle.

How much longer until the citizens of KSA revolt in Riyadh, Jeddah, or Dammam?

 

[MVelsor]

Chuckle chuckle.

How much longer until the citizens of KSA revolt in Riyadh, Jeddah, or Dammam?

They Won't IMO. This FP article is nearly a decade old now but still essentially applies today, if not even more so under MBS The Great and Vision 2030. The House of Saud along with the CCP in China (who just managed to place over 500 million people on lockdown) are two entities and geopolitical realities that are likely to outlive even the youngest of us Sherdoggers.

There Will Be No Uprising In Saudi Arabia

Unlike many of the regional governments currently facing unrest, the kingdom has a strong record of fiscal responsibility. Revenues from energy exports and more than $500 billion in foreign reserves amassed during King Abdullah’s rule have been tapped to fund development projects that benefit the kingdom’s surging population. In fact, the Saudi government has spent tens of billions in the last several years alone to build universities, schools, hospitals, rail links, and housing developments.

King Abdullah recently announced a financial amelioration package, which had been in development since December 2010, to coincide with his return from abroad. These include $29.5 billion in extra expenditures that will benefit the poor, aid the unemployed, provide housing assistance, and support a real estate fund and bank of credit. Another program will raise the salaries of public employees and military personnel and give part-time public sector employees full employment and benefits. Another aims to help those impacted by inflation.

All these programs will be augmented by a further series of initiatives that will be announced later this year and included in the 2012 budget, with a focus on social security, unemployment, and housing. It is precisely these types of programs that were lacking in those countries that have witnessed revolution or are now facing unrest.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

I actually don't really see it that way, and acknowledge the multitude of domestic socioeconomic issues that leave a large segment of its citizenry behind -- when particular sectors and industries aren't the specific focus.

As @JudoThrowFiasco once eloquently stated, you could also consider it the premier venue for highly capable, hyper-competitive ambitious people. It wouldn't make sense to bring up demographics or student loan debt in threads about energy or industrial tech.

What is undeniable is that it's a continent-sized nation with wildly advantageous geographic features, an abundance of natural resources and the world's primary driver of cutting edge scientific research, technological innovation, advancement and progress. It's a stupidly powerful country.

Not only is the US the Superbowl for the ultra competitive and capable, the US style of cut throat captialism allows for other developed nations to focus on their social spending because they have a juggernaut they can turn to for FDI, corporate buyers, trade and free access to bio, space, medical, tech and engineering research.

 

[MVelsor]

 

[MVelsor]

Not only is the US the Superbowl for the ultra competitive and capable, the US style of cut throat captialism allows for other developed nations to focus on their social spending because they have a juggernaut they can turn to for FDI, corporate buyers, trade and free access to bio, space, medical, tech and engineering research.

What this doesn't reveal are the areas of R&D the funding is being directed. The US put $160+ billion towards fundamental pure science research in 2017, more than double that of the CCP or EU's investment.

 

[The ScorpioN]

You always come through Big Dick

This forum is filled to the brim with hyperpartisan domestic political horseshit and endless discussion about gheys, tronnies and moslems.

Those are the fun ones!
But I too, like your threads. I always learn actual facts.

 

[The ScorpioN]

What this doesn't reveal are the areas of R&D the funding is being directed. The US put $160+ billion towards fundamental pure science research in 2017, more than double that of the CCP or EU's investment.

Looks like China really picked up their investment into stolen scientific novelties!
I wonder if a graph that shows Chinese representation in STEM research in the West follows a similar trend.

 

[Sauron]

This is kinda rich from the US. This whole thing is happening because the US has declared economic war on multiple countries. It's acting as a reactionary power, that instead of innovating to stay ahead, sanctions to keep its competitors down.

I think we're going to see quite a few nations put the boot in - especially in the lead up to the November elections. People are sick of American financial bullying. In this case Russia kicked back.

 

[Oceanmachine]

Sounds like a typical dumb Oil bought neocon Republican idea.

Yes lets be more unilateral and rogue and make things worse!

What else could one expect from an old oil industry republican from a midwest state?

 

[JohnnySagebrush]

Russia is trying to hurt us, I don’t believe Putin is naive enough to think he will completely crush shale oil. He doesn’t need to. The shale boom was driven by credit supplied by suppressed interest rates. The data surrounding shale-such as break even price-needs to be examined in the context of never ending liquidity. The inability to become an overall profitable industry over 12 years is concerning.
You need to look at EROI. If EROI is declining, then the shale revolution is questionable in it’s ability to sustain itself. There’s a chance that shale is all smoke and mirrors. I’m not convinced one way or the other at this point, though I have concerns due to continuing unprofitability and hazy data surrounding EROI.

An embargo during the beginning of a recession is an awful, politically driven pork-barrel idea. Cut off a ready supply of cheap oil to become reliant on an oil source that is dependent on credit when credit is drying up? It’s asinine. A bail-out is slightly more palatable but there needs to be strings attached, like a broader profit sharing model where company profits directly fund Education or are disbursed as citizen rebates (should the industry ever become profitable.)

 

[MVelsor]

Looks like China really picked up their investment into stolen scientific novelties!
I wonder if a graph that shows Chinese representation in STEM research in the West follows a similar trend.

China's R&D is still predominantly focused on Development.

Europe is alright.

http://academic.oup.com/spp/article-abstract/45/1/14/3788009

The European Union (EU) seems to presume that the mass production of European research papers indicates that Europe is a leading scientific power, and the so-called European paradox of strong science but weak technology is due to inefficiencies in the utilization of this top level European science by European industry. We fundamentally disagree, and will show that Europe lags far behind the USA in the production of important, highly cited research.

We will show that there is a consistent weakening of European science as one ascends the citation scale, with the EU almost twice as effective in the production of minimal impact papers, while the USA is at least twice as effective in the production of very highly cited scientific papers, and garnering Nobel prizes. Only in the highly multinational, collaborative fields of Physics and Clinical Medicine does the EU seem to approach the USA in top scale impact.

 

[MVelsor]

Yes lets be more unilateral and rogue and make things worse!

You've been acting very womanly in this thread. Calm Down, or I'll have you removed by @ElKarlo via @irish_thug. I'm not saying it's a good idea, and most American refineries are still configured to process heavier crude grades.