Rumble also has a win over an elite fighter in his prime and a win over a legend (past prime, yes but still recently won a decision against top 5 Rashad), something Gustafsson doesn't have.
The odds aren't a prediction on whos gonna win the fight
He's only folded being underweight
When you assess both of their skills, Gustafsson comes out on top because he's the more skilled fighter. Both are well rounded enough to where it's not really an issue about who is more rounded. Gustafsson is the more technical fighter of the two, particularly in the standup. And Rumble beating Lil Nog isn't anything special, he was nearly 40 years old and hadn't fought in over 1 1/2 years. He was rusty and looked slow as hell. Gustafsson beat a much bigger (and also past his prime) legend in Shogun, a guy that already beat Lil Nog when they fought.
Who's comes up with these odds?
I guess easy money to be made this weekend
He may be the more technical fighter, but the more technical fighter isn't always the one that wins. He's lighter on the feet, is more fluid with his combinations, is good at changing levels especially with his jab, has a killer uppercut, is well-rounded and can mix TDs into his game... Gustafsson is a great fighter, but these skills haven't always translated into exceptional performances. Rumble may not be as diverse or as light on his feet, but he has good head movement with good boxing and lethal kicks. He snaps off kicks at good angles and has great timing, and although his footwork isn't flashy, he's very good at cutting off fighters in the cage (similar to Weidman). Not to mention he (along with Gus) has very good takedown defense.
Nogueira had just beaten Rashad, and it's impossible to analyze a fighter's performance when the fight hardly lasted a minute. Shogun had looked absolutely terrible against a low ranked guy in Brandon Vera, and Gustafsson still didn't look leaps and bounds above him (which shouldn't have been the case, seeing as how Sonnen submitted him in a round in his next fight)
This makes no sense!
Rumble is on a tear ever since his move to lhw. He made top 10 fighters look like amateurs. On the other hand Gus only claim to fame is close fight with jones n since beat unranked manuwa.
Who's comes up with these odds?
I guess easy money to be made this weekend
I love when people say Manuwa was unranked...
The odds aren't a prediction on whos gonna win the fight
Because Gus is the only man (besides Vitor's attempt to armbar) to put in danger a champ who cleaned the division.
easy money on GUS. I'm 94% confident.