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Idk, KD hit the nail on the head hereNo sports fans shit on their own sport more than MMA fans.
Idk, KD hit the nail on the head hereNo sports fans shit on their own sport more than MMA fans.
It is strange the fact that baseball is that inconsistent.
I thought team sport can be easily figure out - but when you look at it - baseball is coming down to the pitcher and the hitter. I wonder if there is other factor that influence the chance or luck factor in baseball.
MMA is an individual sport where a fighter need to have everything correct if you wanted to have a clean record:
the ones who are nailing it:
- mental game and confidence need to be up there: Yan, Khabib
- technique: Zabit, Gane
- weight cutting need to be on point: Colby
- a good prepared gameplan: Whittman
- fight IQ - ability to adjust mid-fight: Cejudo
- conditioning: Colby, Holloway
- endurance: Tony, Diaz, Elkins
- in and out, lateral movement: Cruz
- well-roundedness: GSP, Islam
- athleticism: Romero
the ones who aren't nailing it:
- frail mental game: O'Malley
- lack of training or technique: Kris Moutinho
- rough weight cutting: Figueiredo
- bad gameplan-er: ?
- bad fight IQ: most new fighters have this
- bad conditioning: Michel Pereira
- frail endurance: James Vick
- ineffective feet and body movement: Barber
- one dimensional fighter: Holland, Askren
- zero athleticism: Ryan Hall, Chase Hooper
there are also fighters who are unable to perform on big nights like Cowboy
and coin-flip fighters like Michael Johnson
things those are outside of fighters control over the course of fighters career are:
- height
- reach
- leg reach
- experience
- environment (covid exposure, death of closed ones, etc)
- age
- official fighting record (will affect the fighters mentally, mentality going into the fight)
things those can improved (or even regress) over the course of fighters career:
- mental game and confidence: Charles Oliveira, Poirier
- fighting ability: Jan Blachowicz, Khabib, Usman
- endurance: Overeem (regress)
...
Obviously a fighter need to have both good mind and body to achieve something in the sport.
To me what the fighters did on the days outside of fight week also influenced what that will happened inside the octagon.
Through these myriads, melting pots of factors you will calculate what have yous to know who will win it and who will not.
If you really want to know an aswer to your question, you can compare betting lines between different sports. The sport with the closest betting lines on average is the most unpredictable.
Volkov won just about every exchange and every second of that fight for 24:30
Baseball is very predictable using statistical numbers and mathematic formulas.
A sport like hockey is very, very random, however.
Found an article from oddshark listing underdog percentage wins over the previous 5 years (written in March 2020).
Major League Baseball 41.6%
National Hockey League 41.4%
Ultimate Fighting Championship 35%
National Football League 34.2%
National Basketball Association 32.1%
NCAA Basketball (all divisions) 25.9%
NCAA Football (all divisions) 21.9%
https://www.oddsshark.com/sports-betting/which-sport-do-betting-underdogs-win-most-often
I knew it, thanks!
The only caveat I would add is it would appear UFC does have “bigger” underdogs win than MLB. But that could be a product of just having wider odds than you’d see in mlb. But overall, this article and the info supports your initial hypothesis.
Not true, what you talking about man, if there are large gap in betting odds, and if they are most often right, then it's less predictable. IF the odds are close and if it keeps going one way or another, then it IS more unpredictable because you have no idea.
For example, if everything is like GSP vs ____ opponent, or Jon Jones vs ____ opponent, obviously betting odds would be lopsided. A lot, a lot more than most baseball games.
But they are MORE predictable since the odds are so wide. I mean, what I'm saying is, the closeness of betting odds doesn't indicate necessarily the predictableness of those events.
On average it does, and is by far the best indicator that answers to TS's question. I really don't care whether you or anyone else here understand it or not, English is my third language and its not easy for me to explain.
Sports betting is a whole different storyWell you made money off it based on those predictable statistical numbers and mathematic formulas?
MMA's ruleset allows for literally pulling something out of your ass,to win.
It's far more unpredictable b/c it just takes that 1 mistake to lose. Throw a lot of regular season games in the NBA and MLB out b/c matchups and long seasons cause odd things once in a while. But in the playoffs you RARELY see an 8 seed beat 1 seed for example.
In sports like NBA you have 48 minutes for the better team to come out on top. In MMA you can dominate for 14 or 24 minutes and get caught in the last 2 seconds and lose.
Come up with these fights where a guy lost after dominating for 14 or 24 minutes. You make it sound like it happens a lot.
Other than Paul Craig submitting Ankaleev and Sonnen losing to Android and like Volkov getting ktfo by Lewis, and I guess Elkins Bektic in terms of third round come back, please do tell which fights you have in mind where you can say "In MMA you can dominate for 14 or 24 minutes and get caught in the last 2 seconds and lose" as if it's a common occurance.
Ok..not in the last 2 seconds. But there are tons of cases where a fighter is clearly better and is going on to win until BOOM, out of nowhere.
Chael - Silva
Overeem - Rozenstruik
Duffee - Russow