How unpredictable is MMA compared to other sports?

It is strange the fact that baseball is that inconsistent.

I thought team sport can be easily figure out - but when you look at it - baseball is coming down to the pitcher and the hitter. I wonder if there is other factor that influence the chance or luck factor in baseball.

MMA is an individual sport where a fighter need to have everything correct if you wanted to have a clean record:

the ones who are nailing it:
  • mental game and confidence need to be up there: Yan, Khabib
  • technique: Zabit, Gane
  • weight cutting need to be on point: Colby
  • a good prepared gameplan: Whittman
  • fight IQ - ability to adjust mid-fight: Cejudo
  • conditioning: Colby, Holloway
  • endurance: Tony, Diaz, Elkins
  • in and out, lateral movement: Cruz
  • well-roundedness: GSP, Islam
  • athleticism: Romero

the ones who aren't nailing it:
  • frail mental game: O'Malley
  • lack of training or technique: Kris Moutinho
  • rough weight cutting: Figueiredo
  • bad gameplan-er: ?
  • bad fight IQ: most new fighters have this
  • bad conditioning: Michel Pereira
  • frail endurance: James Vick
  • ineffective feet and body movement: Barber
  • one dimensional fighter: Holland, Askren
  • zero athleticism: Ryan Hall, Chase Hooper

there are also fighters who are unable to perform on big nights like Cowboy
and coin-flip fighters like Michael Johnson

things those are outside of fighters control over the course of fighters career are:
  • height
  • reach
  • leg reach
  • experience
  • environment (covid exposure, death of closed ones, etc)
  • age
  • official fighting record (will affect the fighters mentally, mentality going into the fight)

things those can improved (or even regress) over the course of fighters career:
  • mental game and confidence: Charles Oliveira, Poirier
  • fighting ability: Jan Blachowicz, Khabib, Usman
  • endurance: Overeem (regress)

...

Obviously a fighter need to have both good mind and body to achieve something in the sport.

To me what the fighters did on the days outside of fight week also influenced what that will happened inside the octagon.

Through these myriads, melting pots of factors you will calculate what have yous to know who will win it and who will not.

Maybe it's just that I am noob when it comes to baseball... I mean, MMA, I put so much more like hundred times more time into it you know...so maybe baseball isn't that difficult...but...for me....baseball seems 100 percent 100 times more difficult to call...

Nice post by the way, very well thought out!

Ken Florian is kinda like Cowboy...they fold under bright lights when they have biggest fights...lol I'm sure there are more but yea
 
If you really want to know an aswer to your question, you can compare betting lines between different sports. The sport with the closest betting lines on average is the most unpredictable.

Not true, what you talking about man, if there are large gap in betting odds, and if they are most often right, then it's less predictable. IF the odds are close and if it keeps going one way or another, then it IS more unpredictable because you have no idea.

For example, if everything is like GSP vs ____ opponent, or Jon Jones vs ____ opponent, obviously betting odds would be lopsided. A lot, a lot more than most baseball games.

But they are MORE predictable since the odds are so wide. I mean, what I'm saying is, the closeness of betting odds doesn't indicate necessarily the predictableness of those events.
 
Baseball is very predictable using statistical numbers and mathematic formulas.

A sport like hockey is very, very random, however.

Well you made money off it based on those predictable statistical numbers and mathematic formulas?
 
I mean, I guess i didn't know it for sure, that's what I felt, that baseball was so much more unpredictable, not even in same dimension, but with so many people disagreeing, feels good to have something that backs me up in a way
 
I knew it, thanks!

The only caveat I would add is it would appear UFC does have “bigger” underdogs win than MLB. But that could be a product of just having wider odds than you’d see in mlb. But overall, this article and the info supports your initial hypothesis.
 
The only caveat I would add is it would appear UFC does have “bigger” underdogs win than MLB. But that could be a product of just having wider odds than you’d see in mlb. But overall, this article and the info supports your initial hypothesis.

Thanks bruh! Yeah that I think personally is because the lines are off because I think whoever's setting the lines for MMA might not be as used to setting lines for MLB. That's what I think anyways. Or they are in a boxing mindset, just like we have boxing judges and scores, where it just isn't the same.

But cool! Good to be proven sorta right after lots of people disagreeing lol! Cheers!
 
Not true, what you talking about man, if there are large gap in betting odds, and if they are most often right, then it's less predictable. IF the odds are close and if it keeps going one way or another, then it IS more unpredictable because you have no idea.

For example, if everything is like GSP vs ____ opponent, or Jon Jones vs ____ opponent, obviously betting odds would be lopsided. A lot, a lot more than most baseball games.

But they are MORE predictable since the odds are so wide. I mean, what I'm saying is, the closeness of betting odds doesn't indicate necessarily the predictableness of those events.

On average it does, and is by far the best indicator that answers to TS's question. I really don't care whether you or anyone else here understand it or not, English is my third language and its not easy for me to explain.
 
On average it does, and is by far the best indicator that answers to TS's question. I really don't care whether you or anyone else here understand it or not, English is my third language and its not easy for me to explain.

I get everything you re saying it's good

--
From another member


Found an article from oddshark listing underdog percentage wins over the previous 5 years (written in March 2020).

Major League Baseball 41.6%
National Hockey League 41.4%
Ultimate Fighting Championship 35%
National Football League 34.2%
National Basketball Association 32.1%
NCAA Basketball (all divisions) 25.9%
NCAA Football (all divisions) 21.9%
 
Well you made money off it based on those predictable statistical numbers and mathematic formulas?
Sports betting is a whole different story

But yes people actually do win those baseball fantasy games because of certain formulas
 
MMA's ruleset allows for literally pulling something out of your ass,to win.

First one to develop incapacitating farts will become a force to be reckoned with.
 
It's far more unpredictable b/c it just takes that 1 mistake to lose. Throw a lot of regular season games in the NBA and MLB out b/c matchups and long seasons cause odd things once in a while. But in the playoffs you RARELY see an 8 seed beat 1 seed for example.

In sports like NBA you have 48 minutes for the better team to come out on top. In MMA you can dominate for 14 or 24 minutes and get caught in the last 2 seconds and lose.
 
The number of ways a person can win a fight before its (timed) conclusion does make MMA more unpredictable. You always have 9 innings to come back and win in baseball- not true in MMA.

Also, the number of ways to win or gain advantage in MMA is more broad than other combat sports.
 
It's far more unpredictable b/c it just takes that 1 mistake to lose. Throw a lot of regular season games in the NBA and MLB out b/c matchups and long seasons cause odd things once in a while. But in the playoffs you RARELY see an 8 seed beat 1 seed for example.

In sports like NBA you have 48 minutes for the better team to come out on top. In MMA you can dominate for 14 or 24 minutes and get caught in the last 2 seconds and lose.

Come up with these fights where a guy lost after dominating for 14 or 24 minutes. You make it sound like it happens a lot.

Other than Paul Craig submitting Ankaleev and Sonnen losing to Android and like Volkov getting ktfo by Lewis, and I guess Elkins Bektic in terms of third round come back, please do tell which fights you have in mind where you can say "In MMA you can dominate for 14 or 24 minutes and get caught in the last 2 seconds and lose" as if it's a common occurance.
 
Come up with these fights where a guy lost after dominating for 14 or 24 minutes. You make it sound like it happens a lot.

Other than Paul Craig submitting Ankaleev and Sonnen losing to Android and like Volkov getting ktfo by Lewis, and I guess Elkins Bektic in terms of third round come back, please do tell which fights you have in mind where you can say "In MMA you can dominate for 14 or 24 minutes and get caught in the last 2 seconds and lose" as if it's a common occurance.

Ok..not in the last 2 seconds. But there are tons of cases where a fighter is clearly better and is going on to win until BOOM, out of nowhere.
Chael - Silva
Overeem - Rozenstruik
Duffee - Russow
 
I mean maybe not all the time, but fairly sure more often than MMA. I think.
 
I compare with pro boxing damn unpredictable and not rare cases with close matchups.

Even for small proms: I might bring one example: small promotion and they does have mma, KB, boxing.
fighter's promoter vs mma guy. You are able to sell tickets? Cool. $ you might bring in?
Okey, maybe let's talk how much from this you agree to pay for opponent and who you will select for this fight?
Ofc some might book cheapest awailable fighters.
While the same prom might go mad if his lad get a draw in pro boxing.

It is like: u are watchable as pro KB, MMA lad? Sales are good? OKEY.
You are pro boxer? Wtf, this is 5-0 lad, another is 6-2-1 lad, why he does have 6-2-1 record etc alike.

Unpredictable pro boxing fights sadly usually more happens at very high level or in all levels if event's promoter needs just to fill time in event with some fight added to card.

MMA, KB, MT are lesser predictable fights.
 
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