How unpredictable is MMA compared to other sports?

[HHJ]

The stakes didn’t get any higher, sorry.

Not for me. This is Mano y Mano. Once that bell rings,your on your own. Stakes are so epic. Throwin a ball around just dont compare,even though i do enjoy high stakes ball games,its just not the same for me.

 

[HHJ]

It is strange the fact that baseball is that inconsistent.

I thought team sport can be easily figure out - but when you look at it - baseball is coming down to the pitcher and the hitter. I wonder if there is other factor that influence the chance or luck factor in baseball.

MMA is an individual sport where a fighter need to have everything correct if you wanted to have a clean record:

the ones who are nailing it:

• mental game and confidence need to be up there: Yan, Khabib
• technique: Zabit, Gane
• weight cutting need to be on point: Colby
• a good prepared gameplan: Whittman
• fight IQ - ability to adjust mid-fight: Cejudo
• conditioning: Colby, Holloway
• endurance: Tony, Diaz, Elkins
• in and out, lateral movement: Cruz
• well-roundedness: GSP, Islam
• athleticism: Romero

the ones who aren't nailing it:

• frail mental game: O'Malley
• lack of training or technique: Kris Moutinho
• rough weight cutting: Figueiredo
• bad gameplan-er: ?
• bad fight IQ: most new fighters have this
• bad conditioning: Michel Pereira
• frail endurance: James Vick
• ineffective feet and body movement: Barber
• one dimensional fighter: Holland, Askren
• zero athleticism: Ryan Hall, Chase Hooper

there are also fighters who are unable to perform on big nights like Cowboy
and coin-flip fighters like Michael Johnson

things those are outside of fighters control over the course of fighters career are:

• height
• reach
• leg reach
• experience
• environment (covid exposure, death of closed ones, etc)
• age
• official fighting record (will affect the fighters mentally, mentality going into the fight)

things those can improved (or even regress) over the course of fighters career:

• mental game and confidence: Charles Oliveira, Poirier
• fighting ability: Jan Blachowicz, Khabib, Usman
• endurance: Overeem (regress)

...

Obviously a fighter need to have both good mind and body to achieve something in the sport.

To me what the fighters did on the days outside of fight week also influenced what that will happened inside the octagon.

Through these myriads, melting pots of factors you will calculate what have yous to know who will win it and who will not.

I dont think Vick has frail endurance. His lack of good defense has simply caused him to get knocked into next week over and over again. For a guy with such a height advantage,youd think he'd be better at protecting his chin

 

[First Day UFC Intern]

I dont think Vick has frail endurance. His lack of good defense has simply caused him to get knocked into next week over and over again. For a guy with such a height advantage,youd think he'd be better at protecting his chin

Similar to Rockhold then, either lacking or the abandoning of striking defense

 

[JPhenomenal]

The most unpredictable.

 

[sdpdude9]

Found an article from oddshark listing underdog percentage wins over the previous 5 years (written in March 2020).

Major League Baseball 41.6%
National Hockey League 41.4%
Ultimate Fighting Championship 35%
National Football League 34.2%
National Basketball Association 32.1%
NCAA Basketball (all divisions) 25.9%
NCAA Football (all divisions) 21.9%

https://www.oddsshark.com/sports-betting/which-sport-do-betting-underdogs-win-most-often

 

[HHJ]

Similar to Rockhold then, either lacking or the abandoning of striking defense

It seems like he tries to lunge forward and counter guys coming in with his long reach,but if they get past his hands,he's a sitting duck. He keeps his hands low,maybe to anticipate a takedown attempt? I dont know,but once guys get inside on him,if he cant clinch up,he'll get murdalized. Ive seen him take hits before. Its not his chin,at least not in the beggining. Its just the lack of defense. Wth Rockhold it seems more to do with reckless arrogance,but with Vick,it seems like its a part of his style,that is just exploited as the fight goes.

 

[MikeyB]

I mean baseball has a much larger sample size. You also have more constants with the pitching staff. The ace wins more than he loses by design.

Feels like mma is way more unpredictable.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Baseball is very predictable using statistical numbers and mathematic formulas.

A sport like hockey is very, very random, however.

 

[Karl_Hungus]

MMA's ruleset allows for literally pulling something out of your ass,to win.

I think it is not so much the rule set as the nature of combat sports, in general. Any rule set only limits the range of techniques, but I get what you are saying. As someone mentioned, the unpredictable nature of combat sports is amazing, and entertaining. Adrenaline junkies love it. I will say that, as MMA matures, it becomes more like other sports, where upsets are less likely. Still, even with the leveling of the playing field due to advanced training and nutrition regimens, etc., the unpredictable nature of MMA still remains, which is why it is more entertaining than boxing, which has become stagnant under it's rule set. I still enjoy MMA, but it has become much more standardized, or something, than it was. Very few unique specialists anymore. Lots of well-rounded canon fodder.

 

[HHJ]

There's just nothing like seeing Weidman diving into a flying knee by Yoel Romero.

I mean even if you predicted that,its still like watching a fuckin car accident

 

[HHJ]

I think it is not so much the rule set as the nature of combat sports, in general. Any rule set only limits the range of techniques, but I get what you are saying. As someone mentioned, the unpredictable nature of combat sports is amazing, and entertaining. Adrenaline junkies love it. I will say that, as MMA matures, it becomes more like other sports, where upsets are less likely. Still, even with the leveling of the playing field due to advanced training and nutrition regimens, etc., the unpredictable nature of MMA still remains, which is why it is more entertaining than boxing, which has become stagnant under it's rule set. I still enjoy MMA, but it has become much more standardized, or something, than it was. Very few unique specialists anymore. Lots of well-rounded canon fodder.

I think the guys who have weird styles like Perreira and Jiri are always gonna be around,and theyve done quite well for themselves. Zabit also.

 

[Bruce Lee666]

No other (non-combat) sport can a competitor be winning the entire match but suddenly lose to "inferior" opponents.

western football? Man it's so unfair a team can kick 30 times, destroy in all aspects and control the whole game and in the end lose because team Y make 1 goal.

 

[First Day UFC Intern]

western football? Man it's so unfair a team can kick 30 times, destroy in all aspects and control the whole game and in the end lose because team Y make 1 goal.

Other than it is tied, and they depend who wins via penalty, I think there is not much luck factor or unpredictability in a soccer match.

Easy 6-0, 2-0 happened quite often too.

 

[GreatSaintGuillotine]

I have a pretty decent track record at picking fights but shit in a sport that allows strikes its impossible to be totally certain on anything

 

[Individualthoughtpatterns]

Sudden doesn't mean more shocking man.

New York was winning by seven runs then lost with a grand slam in the nineth against the best closer. That's more shocking than Lewis knocking out Volkov by hundred times.

What's so shocking about Lewis knocking about Volkov anyways? lol

Volkov won just about every exchange and every second of that fight for 24:30

 

[TeenageMutantLesnarTurtle]

Soccer is similarly unpredictable on an individual game basis, but over the course of a season it tends to even out so that the usual suspects win the overall competitions.

 

[Melas Chasma]

So we hear all the time how unpredictable sport MMA is and how that un-predictableness makes it so much more exciting.

I'm just wondering how unpredictable MMA really is compared to other sports. For example, baseball. I don't see nobody talking about how unpredictable baseball is as a sport, but I feel like baseball is like 10 times more unpredictable than MMA to predict outcomes for. It's ridiculous.

Admittedly, I watched incomparably more MMA and spent just as much more time thinking and talking about MMA compared to baseball. But my impression still is that baseball seems to be incredibly more unpredictable than MMA.

I'm not saying MMA is necessarily predictable, but compared to baseball, it feels like baseball is just so much more unpredictable. In baseball, even the greatest pitcher with the greatest line up could lose to a triple-A mostly line up and a rookie pitcher, and the pitcher might just say afterwards "I just didn't have it, next one we go!", after getting shelled 10-2.

If you really want to know an aswer to your question, you can compare betting lines between different sports. The sport with the closest betting lines on average is the most unpredictable.

 

[Grayto]

Today we learned unpredictable does not mean exciting.

 

[GrantB13]

Wasn’t that a 3 round fight?

Ah yes it was actually

 

[Bruce Lee666]

Other than it is tied, and they depend who wins via penalty, I think there is not much luck factor or unpredictability in a soccer match.

Easy 6-0, 2-0 happened quite often too.

Porto de Portugal, a second-class team, has already managed to be European champion, beating teams 10 times better as well.

in Spain a team that does not have 5% of the investment of Real or Barcelona managed to be champion, football is unpredictable.