Elections How The Hell is Justin Amash a Spoiler for Joe Biden?

[Hollywood Jack]

Jackie, my summary of Amash's political compass, and chances of becoming President, is as follows -

It doesn't matter, and its very debateble, if he's to the left/right of Trump, Biden, or Johnson.

What does matter is, and isn't debatable, is Justin Amash is a cunt.

Amash is unquestionably to the right of Biden. Trump or Johnson is more debatable, although personally I'd still peg him as further right of Trump, especially philosophically, and also to the right of Johnson. Johnson considers himself to be "socially inclusive" and that manifests in ways that are not conservative or even libertarian. For instance, Johnson supports forcing bakers to make cakes for same-sex weddings. He's actually to the LEFT of me on that (I think it's a manufactured bullshit issue where LGBT activists went out of their way to call up dozens of bakers until they finally found one who wouldn't do it for religious reasons. I also think they targeted Christian bakers but not Muslim or Jewish bakers in an unfair way.). A lot of libertarians have issues with him about stuff like that, but not with Amash because he is solidly conservative libertarian across the board.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I also think the media thinks that Amash is more influential than he really is. I'm pretty sure he's running because he doesn't think he can hold onto his current seat.

"Conservative on economics, libertarian on social issues" is a view that almost no one holds, and the few who do are mostly in the media, seems like. Massive blindspot.

It's crazy that democrats are worried about Amash when the real threat to tipping the election in Trump's favor is the Biden assault allegation. That's something that's going to alienate traditionally democratic voters who have a strong ethical core and who are going to refuse to vote for a man on either side of the aisle if they believe him to be a sexual predator.

The issue is that I don't think anyone actually believes her latest allegation (the first one I think almost everyone does) so it's not having any impact (obviously people who oppose Biden's candidacy for other reasons are pretending to believe it).

 

[ultramanhyata]

The issue is that I don't think anyone actually believes her latest allegation so it's not having any impact (obviously people who oppose Biden's candidacy for other reasons are pretending to believe it).

I'm not surprised that you think those dems who are holding Biden to the same standard as they previously held Kavanaugh are not worthy of respect but, instead, should be written off as people who just didn't vote for Biden in the primary and have an axe to grind.

 

[Trotsky]

I know those Never Trump guys you're talking about like Matt Lewis but I don't know if there was ever a realistic shot they would vote for a Dem nominee. They would have write in a vote or abstained for eventually gone with Trump.

I think the people upset with Amash were hoping he'd endorse Biden which could give him a bump in MI.

I also think the media thinks that Amash is more influential than he really is. I'm pretty sure he's running because he doesn't think he can hold onto his current seat.

Yeah, this sounds about right. If a semi-competent primary challenger appears, I think Amash is inevitably toast. You can't be a principled dissident in a party/movement that demands, above all else, strict conformity to daddy.

 

[Joe]

I tend to see it the same way.

The counter argument presented by some here - that Amash will somehow take the votes of the conservative "Never Trump'ers" - is weak. Because almost to a man and woman every conservative NT I have encountered is politically engaged and literate.

These are the last types of folks who are going to throw their vote away on some third-party guy who doesn't have a shot in hell of winning the election. They want to beat Trump at all costs. And a vote for the dem nominee is the only way to do it.

It's crazy that democrats are worried about Amash when the real threat to tipping the election in Trump's favor is the Biden assault allegation. That's something that's going to alienate traditionally democratic voters who have a strong ethical core and who are going to refuse to vote for a man on either side of the aisle if they believe him to be a sexual predator.

What makes you think the assault allegation will have an impact? Unless something new comes up it'll be a distant memory. Hell it's completely fallen off since last week. I don't think Reade expected biden to come out addressing it before she did. Though I fully expect something new to come out closer to the election.

 

[ultramanhyata]

The issue is that I don't think anyone actually believes her latest allegation

In light of the friends and family members who have corroborated her full story, in order to dismiss Reade's allegation as false one would have to accept that: Reade was already privately claiming she was digitally raped by Biden back in the 1990's. When she, by definition, had absolutely nothing to potentially gain from it publicly or financially.

This is the same craziness those defending Kavanaugh had to swallow with Ford as she, too, had witnesses step forward to say Ford had privately related the bedroom assault decades before Justice Brett was even a glimmer in Trump's eye.

The only other option is to believe that all the witnesses themselves chose to blatantly lie in order to support what Reade/Ford allege. And that places one out in CT land.

 

[tonni]

If it's Trump vs. Not Trump, he loses. If it's Trump vs. whomever the best-non-Trump candidate is, the vote might be split enough to get him the win.

 

[Joe]

The conclusion to the piece you linked is that it's inconclusive, not that Amash was more likely to cause problems for Trump than for Biden.

One thing is that ~43% of the population still thinks that Trump is doing a good job. Recent poll showed that 30% think the country is better off now than it was in 2016! If it's Trump vs. Not Trump, he loses. If it's Trump vs. whomever the best-non-Trump candidate is, the vote might be split enough to get him the win.

My nightmare prediction is the economy will slightly recover and people will give trump credit thus completely forgetting the cluster fuck response to the virus

 

[ultramanhyata]

What makes you think the assault allegation will have an impact? Unless something new comes up it'll be a distant memory. Hell it's completely fallen off since last week. I don't think Reade expected biden to come out addressing it before she did. Though I fully expect something new to come out closer to the election.

I made a thread yesterday related to a poll showing 26% of democratic voters say the allegations are disqualifying and the dems need to decide on a new nominee.

Even if only a small fraction of this many democratic voters decide to sit it out in the swing states due to their belief in Biden's guilt it will mean almost certain victory for Trump.

 

[Joe]

I made a thread yesterday related to a poll showing 26% of democratic voters say the allegations are disqualifying and the dems need to decide on a new nominee.

Even if only a small fraction of this many democratic voters decide to sit it out in the swing states due to their belief in Biden's guilt it will mean almost certain victory for Trump.

And what are the odds those are from likely bernie supporters? The only thing dragging down biden would be if there is anything new it.

 

[ultramanhyata]

And what are the odds those are from likely bernie supporters? The only thing dragging down biden would be if there is anything new it.

So you are another one who wants to believe this 26% are not dems consistently and admirably holding Biden to the same standard as they held Kavanaugh and Trump but, instead, are just bitter Bernie Bros using the allegations as a means to an end to try and railroad Joe.

OK.

 

[Joe]

So you are another one who wants to believe this 26% are not dems consistently and admirably holding Biden to the same standard as they held Kavanaugh and Trump but, instead, are just bitter Bernie Bros using the allegations as a means to an end to try and railroad Joe.

OK.

What makes you think I'm a believe all women and not just investigate? If nothing new comes out it'll be well it could be true it could not but Trump is a moron and I can't afford another 4 years.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Dems just stacking up more excuses for Biden losing so they can deflect and take no responsibility for their failures. Imagine losing to Trump twice!

I personally think Biden wins out of being tired of Trump’s incompetence and bullshit. I think anybody on the D ballot for potus beats trump based on the fact that Biden is the nominees-obviously peop;e don’t give a shit about policy or history. Makes Sanders losing in the primary all the more tragic.

 

[Trotsky]

In light of the friends and family members who have corroborated her full story, in order to dismiss Reade's allegation as false one would have to accept that: Reade was already privately claiming she was digitally raped by Biden back in the 1990's. When she, by definition, had absolutely nothing to potentially gain from it publicly or financially.

This is the same craziness those defending Kavanaugh had to swallow with Ford as she, too, had witnesses step forward to say Ford had privately related the bedroom assault decades before Justice Brett was even a glimmer in Trump's eye.

The only other option is to believe that all the witnesses themselves chose to blatantly lie in order to support what Reade/Ford allege. And that places one out in CT land.

Hmm, no. Considering Reade had already made a lesser allegation concerning Biden, I think it's reasonable to presume the first allegation - workplace impropriety - is the more likely reality and that the escalation to rape was due to the first allegation not landing as flushly as she wanted.

I think it's frankly silly to think she, a rape victim, came out to the press 20 years later to break a revelation about shoulder rubs and then months later add "btw, he raped me too."

 

[ultramanhyata]

What makes you think I'm a believe all women and not just investigate? If nothing new comes out it'll be well it could be true it could not but Trump is a moron and I can't afford another 4 years.

I was just responding to you saying the 26% were likely Bernie supporters.

 

[ultramanhyata]

Hmm, no. Considering Reade had already made a lesser allegation concerning Biden, I think it's reasonable to presume the first allegation - workplace impropriety - is the more likely reality and that the escalation to rape was due to the first allegation not landing as flushly as she wanted.

I think it's frankly silly to think she, a rape victim, came out to the press 20 years later to break a revelation about shoulder rubs and then months later add "btw, he raped me too."

This completely disregards the decades-old corroboration that was the centerpiece of my post.

 

[HereticBD]

And what are the odds those are from likely bernie supporters?

What does that have to do with anything? If they're 26% of the Dem base, that's all that matters. They're going to need those votes.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I'm not surprised that you think those dems who are holding Biden to the same standard as they previously held Kavanaugh are not worthy of respect but, instead, should be written off as people who just didn't vote for Biden in the primary and have an axe to grind.

Yeah, I've heard the party line on that. Everyone except Republicans is supposed to pretend that the situations are the same. But I'm just saying that I don't think that anyone really believes that her latest story is true.

 

[ultramanhyata]

But I'm just saying that I don't think that anyone really believes that her latest story is true.

So you're saying everyone who says they believe Joe is being sincere. And everyone who says they believe Reade is lying for political reasons.

 

[Lead]

I didn’t think he’d get much traction but I have seen some people talking about his campaign. Not sure if those people always gravitate third party or are pulling votes away from Trump or Biden. I’d say if he’s the highest profile third party candidate this year, there won’t be a problem with “spoilers”. People were worried about Gabbard, Bloomberg, and Starbucks CEO and it seems like none jumped in. Any credible person seems to understand the blowback if they got credited for keeping Trump in due to a pointless third party bid.