Lovato's striking is not so good, maybe even pretty bad. No defense and doesn't know what to do when under pressure. He doesn't have great wrestling, has to work hard for his takedowns. Mousasi is a strong MW and will punish him when Lovato fails his takedowns.
I think Mousasi schools him. Lovato's striking defense will be exposed. He will be eating jabs all night long, just like all of Gegards opponents and even worse.
Don't know if Gegard will finish him. He often finish people with gnp and I don't think he will follow Lovato on the ground if he drops him. A 5 rounder is possible.
Of course there is the possibility Lovato takes Mousasi down. But that doesn't mean it's an insta submission for Lovato. Like I said Mousasi is strong and he will get on his feet if the opportunity arises. The opposite is true as well. If Mousasi makes a small mistake on the ground Lovato will submit him.
In the end I think Mousasi will beat him 9/10.