The 1st match only had like 11 days of promo, maybe less, and it did 1.5.
Alot of casuals probably considered it a "downgrade" from the superfight FW vs LW champs.
Nate's twitter followers have probably doubled since then (i remember Nate's being alot lower than Nick's, and now Nate's ahead), and Conor's have increased alot as well (he's over 2 mil now).
I think because of all that, as long as they promote it alot it will at least do similar to the 1st, if not better.