How low would UFC PPV buyrates have to go for them to change their PPV strategy?

Kingfarthur said:
The average UFC ppv is not "about 250K", its higher than that. UFC 168 did enough for four average ppvs then...I think the average is closer too 375-400K.
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I should have worded it better. Definitely there are going to be huge PPV cards that get 600k or whatever to pull the mean up.

I should have said the mode (instead of the mean) is around 250k. As in, most commonly PPVs now sell 250k.

And with UFC 175, it's going to get 700k maybe?

So someone else suggested, is that all that is needed, that occasional stacked card (probably 3 a year) that gets 600-800k and the others with low buys don't matter?
 
Kingfarthur said:
The two co-mains at 173 are good, and Hendo is a big name. 174 is worse, maybe the worst ppv I've seen. I'm gonna call it now.

173=280,000
174=180,000
175=675,000
176=350,000
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Just based on some of the numbers we've been seeing, I think you'll be dead wrong on 173 and 174. Good guess on 175, but on 176, it will get that only if they add another big co main event. Aldo by himself has shown to net only about 250k buys.
 
Until fans vote the message so many times it gets through the thick skulls of UFC execs.
 
BionicCommando said:
It's not just about a number though. It's about a totality of circumstances. It would have to be at a "batten down the hatches" type failure combined with a fat payroll. Let's just play the numbers game momentarily using only the briefest of amounts.

Let's say this event does 150K. 150K x 60 bucks is 9 million dollars. Splice that in half for PPV providers and you've got 4.5 mil. Throw in anywhere from 1 to 2 mil from Fox to air prelims and you're at 5.5 to 6.5 mil. Now throw in a live gate of about 1 mil (for the low side) and you're at anywhere from 6 to 7 million. Subtract 1.2 mil to put on the event since that's the estimated production costs and subtract, for the sake of argument, 1 million to pay fighters on the event.

7 mil minus 2.2 mil still gives you 5 mil IN THEORY off an event, just playing off of isolated value like gates PPVs, productions and the check they get to air these shows. Now remove PPV and try that again. NOW you're hitting a real panic area.


That's why they're stuck on PPV despite their constant admission that they see Fight Pass as the next step. It's why they'll sit there and go "well if Ali Bagautinov vs Mighty Mouse is a flop on PPV, we're still making bank on the event". Would they be happy about it? Probably not but it's also the only thing they know right now.


That's why Fight Pass over the next two years matters a lot for them. If the WWE Network manages to salvage itself (which I think it will) and Fight Pass continues to go up, I can easily see them dicing 4 PPVs off the schedule, putting them on Fight Pass and adjusting the price to something that would help soften the blow. Until then, PPVs would have to drag ass.
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Very valid points and that sounds like a likely scenario. So would 100k ($6 million / 2 = $3 mil) be enough for them to continue on with the same model?

If it is enough, then we're not going to see any changes to the PPV model as I suggested since it's very unlikely that we get under 100k buys.
 
j18lee said:
Just based on some of the numbers we've been seeing, I think you'll be dead wrong on 173 and 174. Good guess on 175, but on 176, it will get that only if they add another big co main event. Aldo by himself has shown to net only about 250k buys.
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That and June (as well as August) tends to be historically a down PPV month for the UFC. I think 174 is going to be ugly all around for them in terms of that event from the gate to the PPV buys.


They'll probably make it all back though in July with the cards in July. UFC 175 should be big, I'd imagine the finale the next night will do well and I bet they'll make a killing in Ireland.
 
#5: Include all PPVs in UFC Fight Pass and increase price to $14.99/month

I think this would work if there was a pricing system that discounted those willing to pay for longer subscriptions up front. WWE found a way to do it, hopefully the UFC can find a similar system and make it profitable. It would also increase viewers on smaller cards and maybe even bring a few new stars about thourgh exposure.
 
I like more cards. Football isnt in season, soccer sucks, baseball is suicidal, and hockey isnt popular where im from.
They should decrease price because champs fighting 3x is good, is it the best idea, but these morons get injured in their camps.

Best course of action is to.decrease price. You either get some money or no money.
 
bigearv14 said:
#5: Include all PPVs in UFC Fight Pass and increase price to $14.99/month
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Fight Pass in it's current form simply isn't built to handle that kind of project.


NOW will it in two years? I suppose that's the hope if you're a fan.
 
j18lee said:
Very valid points and that sounds like a likely scenario. So would 100k ($6 million / 2 = $3 mil) be enough for them to continue on with the same model?

If it is enough, then we're not going to see any changes to the PPV model as I suggested since it's very unlikely that we get under 100k buys.
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I think that they're aware that the pay per view model is on it's last legs. I think the reality though is that until other things change, this is the model they have and this is the model they'll continue to live and die on for the short term. I think long term, the hope would be a bigger Fight Pass or a bigger TV deal.
 
BionicCommando said:
Fight Pass in it's current form simply isn't built to handle that kind of project.


NOW will it in two years? I suppose that's the hope if you're a fan.
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Agreed. It would be a big change, especially since Fight Pass just started and the UFC still needs to see how well it does in its current state.

But if problems arise as TS mentioned, I see something similar to this as a strong possibility.
 
I see the the UFC doing away with the PPV model and going completely online in the future with Fightpass. A Netflix for MMA that streams everything live and includes all their old events, episodes of TUF, Pride, WEC, Strikefore etc
 
bigearv14 said:
Agreed. It would be a big change, especially since Fight Pass just started and the UFC still needs to see how well it does in its current state.

But if problems arise as TS mentioned, I see something similar to this as a strong possibility.
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They've already discussed hybrid-ing it (less UFC PPVs, numbered events on Fight Pass) if certain people are to be believed. The problem is Fight Pass in it's current form has already met it's projected total of subscribers and they still have a PPV contract in place that stipulates a set # of events.
 
vanzella said:
no one knows.
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While we don't know enough data... Plenty of UFC execs would know this very well. Maybe even some grunts at UFC headquarters know this also, some intern in the account division or something.

But regardless, the ideas being floated around in this thread has been very enlightening and entertaining.

I didn't realize the power of the Fight Pass and how likely it could have a huge part in the future of UFC programming.

I guess I should have realized that since online subscription is the way to go with almost anything these days - NFL/NBA/MLB, Netflix, Amazon Prime, HBO Go, etc.
 
bigearv14 said:
#5: Include all PPVs in UFC Fight Pass and increase price to $14.99/month

I think this would work if there was a pricing system that discounted those willing to pay for longer subscriptions up front. WWE found a way to do it, hopefully the UFC can find a similar system and make it profitable. It would also increase viewers on smaller cards and maybe even bring a few new stars about thourgh exposure.
Click to expand...

Didn't the WWE's stock drop like by like 2/3's because of that move?
 
j18lee said:
While we don't know enough data... Plenty of UFC execs would know this very well. Maybe even some grunts at UFC headquarters know this also, some intern in the account division or something.

But regardless, the ideas being floated around in this thread has been very enlightening and entertaining.

I didn't realize the power of the Fight Pass and how likely it could have a huge part in the future of UFC programming.

I guess I should have realized that since online subscription is the way to go with almost anything these days - NFL/NBA/MLB, Netflix, Amazon Prime, HBO Go, etc.
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I guess there aren't any ufc execs on sherdog giving this type of information.

Also, it's implied the "no one" is directed at our controlled enviroment, not at the whole universe.
 
theanticool said:
Didn't the WWE's stock drop like by like 2/3's because of that move?
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Partially. It was more that Vince McMahon told anyone who would listen that they were going to double their television revenue and then they signed a deal for some 100 mil less than that.
 
I imagine when Fight Pass is able to become the delivery model and they are able to cut out the Cable and Satellite distributors they will have a much higher profitability. A Fight Pass can be for different levels. The current $10/month for what you get now, maybe $250/ year for All Access to every card or $30 per PPV on its own.
 
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