I can definitely see Tate winning - good takedowns, very good top game, very good resiliency/conditioning. Yes, Holly may pick her apart, but I think it's close to a toss up.
I like your analysis but I'd just like to point a couple of other things out, Miesha has never finished a UFC-calibre opponent & she has also never been a full 5 rounds period, at least we know Holly has done 30 minutes in boxing and is a freak athlete, Miesha has never gone more than 20 minutes in any sport.To the original poster: I concur with your analysis. Tate is going to get lit up, and she doesn't have many ways to win the fight. But she has a few things going for her.
1. Tate's head movement is just as bad as Rousey's so she will eat a lot of punches, but Tate is very durable. Her pain tolerance is quite high.
2. Holm is a very cautious fighter - sometimes too cautious. If Holm respects Tate's takedowns/ground game too much,it may allow the fight to go 5 rounds. I think, if Holm shrugs off a few Tate takedowns early, she will go on to absolutely destroy Tate (imagine Jojed teeing off on Esparza, just add 20 pounds...or I suppose you can just rewatch the last 30-40 seconds of Zingano-Tate to get an idea). But, if Holm fights too cautiously and the fight drags on the full five rounds, this will help Tate tremendously.
3. Holm comes from a boxing background and presumably 5 rounds won't be a problem for her. But, we just haven't seen her go 5 rounds in an MMA fight. There is an outside chance she gets tired in the later rounds. This would also help Tate considerably.
4. Tate really has nothing but her takedowns and LnP (which can win the fight for her). If Holm prepares well and her takedown defense is on-point, she will likely quickly gain confidence, step into the pocket and just maul Tate (might see a homage/replay to Young's face-kick KO of Tate). But Tate's camp has recently made claims that Tate could KO Holm and other such nonsense. It's an outside chance, but if Tate's camp believes this BS and they decide to ignore Tate's takedowns and focus on boxing with Miesha, this would also help Tate tremendously.
So...Tate does have a few things going for her and a few more things that might go her way. But, in all likelihood, she will get punched a lot while ankle diving/going for ineffective takedown attempts. Her stubbornness and toughness will prevent the fight from being stopped and we will watch Tate take a horrific 5-round beating.
Jarl
That "sandbagging" story was complete BS. Please stop spewing that Jackson camp Spin Doctor nonsense.
This argument has been defused so many times before... Several times in this very thread.
Cliffs:
sandbagging, holding back, dragging out fights, UFC debut against Rocky, herniated disc, broken arm.
they are pretty good. miesha is more crafty than ronda.
That sandbagging story, holding back, whatever you want to call it isn't true. That's Greg Jackson spin doctor nonsense. And who doesn't go into a fight hurt in someway.
Holly's a good striker, great for WMMA. She can be game planned like anyone else. Meisha will have a better game plan and worlds better coaching than Ronda. Holm most likely wins a UD, but if Meisha fights a grindhouse boring fight and can keep the distance close, she has a chance.
It wasn't Jackson, it was Winklejohn, who was her coach from the beginning: Kickboxing/Boxing/MMA. It's not like he was bragging about it, either. He mentioned it very briefly in the post fight interview of the Ronda fight. "We were holding back on a few things in previous fights" is what he said I believe.
Then Holly went on air in an interview and admits to drag out fights.
While I tend to disbelieve training camp statements, it seems reasonable with Holly, given she admits to it herself.
Winklejohn also spews Jackson camp Nonsense too since they are the same camp. I said in the previous post it's Jackson camp nonsense.
If they would have said "we had Holm follow our boring point fighting game plans t" then it would have possibly been the truth.
But to say they had a super secret plan to make Holly look worse to trick Ronda into fighting her (which is exactly how that was presented post fight) then that is crazy talk and them trying to seem to smart for the room (which they are prone to do.)
Holly looked pretty good to me in her fight against Reneau. She was fighting a girl that was back peddling the entire fight. I don't know what more she could've done. It's funny how people judge that performance when she was being extremely aggressive against someone who wanted no part of it. In any case, how does that fight have any bearing in this fight against Meisha?Holm wasn't awesome before her last fight so I'd say Mieshas chances are pretty good.