Horseracing Discussion -- 2020

[Black Paladin]

Let's get it going.

I am only going to talk about spots where we would have a chance to get 3/1 or better.

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 3 -- #1 Alien Invasion (speed of the race)
RACE 4 -- #3 Cabre (speed of the race)
RACE 5 -- #5 Big Boss Lady
RACE 7 -- #4 Shore Magic (speed of the race)
RACE 9 -- #2 Unchained (class of the race)
RACE 10 -- #9 Lucky Polly (class of the race)

 

[Sharkey]

This applies to 2020 as well as any and every other year;

"What I like to see are the books and programs by fellows such as Andrew Beyer and William Quirin, the experts. And don't get me wrong, these guys are experts. These people serve a purpose. Whether they're teaching the correct thing, I can't say. But for my purposes, speaking purely for myself, what they teach me is very important. And that is, whatever they say, do the exact opposite. That's a very valuable piece of information as far as I'm concerned. You need that. You cannot develop a pattern of success unless you know who the losers are. Once you know who the losers are, once you discern properly the pattern they are using, if you do everything but what they do, you will be successful. This is basically what I've done in handicapping."

- Buddy Alvarado

 

[Sharkey]

Even those who bet by simply watching the tote board are sheep and fortunately, many of them don't mind sharing their methods with others.

"I like to watch for the early money as it usually comes from those closely connected to the horse."

Oh really?

*cue pool manipulation*

- Sizeable false bet on a bad favourite (which stays visible on the board for 15-20 minds in smaller pools)
- Cancel false bet with 1 MTP when most of the money comes in
- Make real bet

Yeah, I don't see any rules that says I can't play the role of a "sharp money" type who needs to get his bet in early because he's too busy with his horse.

 

[Sharkey]

Gambling is still and will always be one of the places where the introverted & observant independent thinkers of the world will have a big advantage over the more extroverted & linear thinkers.

 

[Sharkey]

I always find it funny how the herd mentality doesn't even understand herd mentality, and how much value there is just in that statement itself.

 

[Sharkey]

"The public as a whole are the best handicappers."

So I've heard countless times in horse racing circles.

The public = majority thinking

So, being a odds type, it would seem the initial statement itself would come from majority thinking, no? i.e. the public

Yet 98% of the public lose money betting.

Fact.

 

[mposhtkouhi]

"The public as a whole are the best handicappers."

So I've heard countless times in horse racing circles.

The public = majority thinking

So, being a odds type, it would seem the initial statement itself would come from majority thinking, no? i.e. the public

Yet 98% of the public lose money betting.

Fact.

Hey man quick question seems like u only post about horses do you follow mma and do you bet on it?

 

[Sharkey]

Hey man quick question seems like u only post about horses do you follow mma and do you bet on it?

I don't really watch much MMA anymore, M, but I still try to keep up with the news and results somewhat. And no, I haven't made a bet on it in about a decade. The last event I bet was when Nam Phan got robbed against Garcia at a TUF finale I think it was. I started losing interest before that point, went on a slide with my MMA betting, and knowing my interest wasn't likely to come back any time soon, I just stopped betting it completely.

 

[mposhtkouhi]

I don't really watch much MMA anymore, M, but I still try to keep up with the news and results somewhat. And no, I haven't made a bet on it in about a decade. The last event I bet was when Nam Phan got robbed against Garcia at a TUF finale I think it was. I started losing interest before that point, went on a slide with my MMA betting, and knowing my interest wasn't likely to come back any time soon, I just stopped betting it completely.

do u bet on horses daily?

 

[Sharkey]

do u bet on horses daily?

Nah, not daily, although I do try to look at races from my preferred tracks (like MVR in winter) on the days they are running. But the amount of spots I can find that are worth the bet for me are pretty limited nowadays, though, so in 2019 I was averaging just over 1 race per day that I bet.

 

[Sharkey]

Mahoning gets some freezing rain and snow a few days ago, and then outside go out and win 9 of the next 10 immediately after (other was mid). Same thing happens all the time at that track.

 

[Sharkey]

#1, #5, and #9 should be the counter types to the #4 and #7 here.