High value odds coming soon

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Kaiokenrye24, Jan 24, 2019.

  1. Kaiokenrye24

    Kaiokenrye24 Brown Belt

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    I find it insane that Raphael Assuncao(+185) and Kelvin Gastelum(+210) are such steep underdogs. I think both these odds should be closer to even money.

    I understand that Marlon Moraes is more dynamic, but Assuncao is more wellrounded and only lost to TJ Dillashaw at 135. He can even use wrestling too and skilled at winning via decision.

    I think Whittaker's wars with Romero will eventually take it's toll, granted he will be off for 8 months by the time he fights again. Kelvin is a slob but undeniably a super talented boxer who can close the distance. He also has never been knocked out
    Again not saying Gastelum or Assuncao will win, but that the odds should be closer
     
  2. Lando

    Lando Blue Belt

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  3. Gluhov

    Gluhov Black Belt

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    Whittaker is going to murder him.
     
  4. EndlessCritic

    EndlessCritic Gold Belt

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    if you want insane value, bet ledet against walker.
     
  5. Dirge

    Dirge Black Belt

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    Marlon already beat assuncao once. Yes it was a close fight but there is a definite psychological edge there. He also has a lot more power and a higher finish rate. The odds there are about right

    Whittaker should go through gastelum pretty easily. He is better everywhere and does not have cardio issues.
     
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  6. Mga223

    Mga223 Steel Belt

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    Gastelum is worth a bet
     
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  7. Kaiokenrye24

    Kaiokenrye24 Brown Belt

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    Assuncao won via split decision ufc 212
     
  8. AndyHugMercury

    AndyHugMercury Blue Belt

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    Sounds about right
     
  9. Franklin U.

    Franklin U. Gold Belt

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    Whitaker is pretty much -210/ +185 everywhere which is an honest line. That makes Kelvin a mild underdog in the fight game.I mean if you really like KG then it looks like good value but as long as Robert comes in healthy , he should be at least 2-1 here.
     
  10. Dirge

    Dirge Black Belt

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    Thanks. This is what happens when you post late at night.
     
  11. McBlaze

    McBlaze Purple Belt

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    I got Moraes and Kelvin
     
  12. Post 2 Decision

    Post 2 Decision Black Belt

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    Moraes basically won their first encounter, I see why he's the favourite.

    And I think Kelvin needs to get back to WW
     
  13. maxi diablo

    maxi diablo Black Belt

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    Gastelum will prove that being good at running is worthless when it comes to fighting.
     
  14. Kaiokenrye24

    Kaiokenrye24 Brown Belt

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    I scored the fight for Moraes too and am leaning towards him here but Assuncao at +185 odds is worth a look.

    Gastelum is better off going to 170 but he's a slob and I just don't see him not ballooning after fights
     
  15. Chris Baynham

    Chris Baynham White Belt

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    Interested to hear you expand on that.
    No-one seems to be giving Ledet a chance. His striking is very good and he can submit people too.
    Walker has the hype train though.
     
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  16. FreddieRoachsVoice

    FreddieRoachsVoice Green Belt

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    Again, really don't understand the point in complaining about odds being in your favor. If you see value, bet... don't complain.

    Also, the line for Kelvin is more than fair considering he has frequently under-performed in big fights and was dropped and finished by a far worse striker in Weidman. 6 of Kelvin's last 8 wins in the UFC are over guys who are now retired and Jacare is definitely past his prime as well. Proceed with caution.
     
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  17. AtaTheCrow

    AtaTheCrow Immortal

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    I want Whittaker to win, but yes, i can see Gastelum pulling it off. Dont sleep on the fatty
     
  18. ArmenianAssasin

    ArmenianAssasin Brown Belt

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    The fight could of gone either way tbh

    Main issue is that assuncao is 36 in a very young division while it seems like Moraes is now getting into his prime (turned 30)
     
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  19. FreddieRoachsVoice

    FreddieRoachsVoice Green Belt

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    Agreed. Assuncao is also not much of a finisher and considering 3 of his last 8 fights were split decisions, I certainly wouldn't feel comfortable betting on him... especially for the meager payout from this line. Moraes wins this and Assuncao begins his downslide due to injuries accumulating IMO
     
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  20. Naterade

    Naterade Orange Belt

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    One of the worst decisions ever lol. Go back and watch the fight. Relatively competitive but marlon won 29-28

    http://mmadecisions.com/decision/8130/fight
     

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