Gustafsson vs Shogun, Thiago Silva and Rumble odds

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by rularn, Jan 22, 2015.

  1. rularn

    rularn Yellow Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2012
    Messages:
    187
    Likes Received:
    31
    Gustafsson had 1.56 vs Shogun and 1.48 vs Thiago Silva. Now, when he's about to maul Rumble he's down to 1.35-1.4 on many brokers. Source: http://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma/alexander-gustafsson-v-anthony-johnson/winner

    So he's a bigger favorite to win now compared to when he fought Rua or Thiago Silva. It seems like Sherdoggers in general think to much of Rumble and his abilities. To be honest, I think Gus will make it look very one sided. You guys on the other hand should bet on Rumble.
     
  2. 105

    105 Full Metal Jacket Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    1,985
    Likes Received:
    1,518
    Location:
    MN
    Rumble is going to give Gus the big brother treatment against the cage enroute to a KO/TKO in round 2-3... Heard it here first.
     
  3. 105

    105 Full Metal Jacket Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    1,985
    Likes Received:
    1,518
    Location:
    MN
    LHW Anthony Johnson is a different beast.
     
  4. 7437

    7437 Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2013
    Messages:
    24,732
    Likes Received:
    22,585
    Well rumble is better than shown or thiago Silva, so it makes sense that Gus wouldn't be as heavy of a favorite.
     
  5. Sir RaldoBabalu

    Sir RaldoBabalu Orange Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2014
    Messages:
    281
    Likes Received:
    0
    Wow didn't expect odds so low on Gus
     
  6. rularn

    rularn Yellow Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2012
    Messages:
    187
    Likes Received:
    31
    No you got it wrong. He is a bigger favorite to win now vs Rumble than he was when he fought Silva and Rua
     
  7. Reach4theSky

    Reach4theSky Playin' a riddim

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2006
    Messages:
    15,904
    Likes Received:
    65,904
    Location:
    10th Island
    Of coarse he is. He went the distance with arguably the GOAT. His stock has risen quite a bit since those two fights.
     
  8. HeexX

    HeexX Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2012
    Messages:
    11,005
    Likes Received:
    136
    Location:
    The North
    Let me remind you that these are the odds where people put their money where their mouth is. Real money.
     
  9. Post 2 Decision

    Post 2 Decision Red Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2014
    Messages:
    9,917
    Likes Received:
    20,754
    Location:
    604
    Gus is better everywhere except power, rightful favourite

    As long as he doesn't get hit with a bomb he'll win a decision or maybe even get a late sub.
    The guy's got one of the best chins in the UFC too
     
  10. HeexX

    HeexX Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2012
    Messages:
    11,005
    Likes Received:
    136
    Location:
    The North
    He's a heavier favourite though..?
     
  11. ArtOfDrowning

    ArtOfDrowning Lecter Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2013
    Messages:
    32,273
    Likes Received:
    47,015
    Location:
    Hannibal's dinner plate
    Seems like a lot of people, me included, think that Gus can keep Rumble on the end of his jab and good footwork. Low odds on Gus, I wish they were a bit higher.

    Probably Gus by UD even tho Rumble is a beast and probably beats everyone in LHW except Jones, Gus and maybe DC.
     
  12. 7437

    7437 Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2013
    Messages:
    24,732
    Likes Received:
    22,585
    Oh, I see. Damn foreign odds got me mixed up.

    I'd say thats great odds to take rumble then.
     
  13. rularn

    rularn Yellow Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2012
    Messages:
    187
    Likes Received:
    31
    It certainly is! To bad I'm not one of those who thinks Rumble will win. But there are lots of sherdoggers who should put a bet on Rumble, he's up at 3.46 atm!!
     
  14. Miiiiiiighty

    Miiiiiiighty Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    15,023
    Likes Received:
    3,028
    Location:
    France
    Rumble is on a mission so I wouldn't bet the house on Gus especially with those weak odds..

    Rumble has big power and Gus, though he has a granite chin, takes a lot of shots.
    I think Gus either clinchfucking him against the cage or grapplefucking him to make him gas and then outstriking him in the later rounds when is power is way down is the most likely scenario if Gus fights intelligently, but I wouldn't bet a dime on this fight.
     
  15. sickboy_1

    sickboy_1 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2006
    Messages:
    2,607
    Likes Received:
    1,623
    Location:
    Berlin
    Wow, gambling sounds so easy. I wonder why not everybody earns big from it. ;-)
     
  16. RockyLockridge

    RockyLockridge Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2013
    Messages:
    10,595
    Likes Received:
    5,989
    This is one of the most bittersweet affairs in recent UFC history for me.

    I want to see both of theses guys challenge Jones, but I almost want rumble to win because it's a match up that we haven't seen and rumble has not fought for a UFC championship yet.
     
  17. JBJ was here

    JBJ was here Yellow Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2014
    Messages:
    249
    Likes Received:
    13
    One of the first rules of sports betting is to never bet in favor of the team or guy who has a particularly rabid or oversized fanbase, because that competitor will have a disproportionate amount of money bet on them without consideration of the odds, tending to make their odds a poor bet. Smart money will go the other way, but only so long as the odds, including the house rake, favor it.

    Gus, fighting in Sweden, is an awful bet, and you don't really need to even know the odds to know that. The overwhelming majority of the dumb money laid on this fight is laid on Gus. Rumble should be an even money or slightly positive expectation bet, and a Gus bet is a definite negative expectation.
     
  18. thomm030

    thomm030 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2011
    Messages:
    1,726
    Likes Received:
    71
    Location:
    The Netherlands
    I'm surprised at those odds but I still think Gus will win.
     
  19. HeexX

    HeexX Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2012
    Messages:
    11,005
    Likes Received:
    136
    Location:
    The North
    How would Gus at even money be a bad bet exactly?
     
  20. clumseygenius

    clumseygenius Red Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2006
    Messages:
    9,548
    Likes Received:
    5,202
    Location:
    Toronto

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.