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Yes history does say Diaz will lose via UD but history also shows us that Diaz has only improved as a more complete fighter from 7 years ago when those wrestlefuck fights took place. Let's also not forget that the Diego fight, the Karo fight, the Riggs fight, and the Sherk fight were all incredibly close and controversial with opinion basically split 50/50.
I think Nick will surprise some people with his ground game.
I'm more interested in what GSP will do standing. He was a beast and I was a huge fan of his early on but he took his foot off the gas pedal. If GSP comes in this fight like 2006/2007 GSP, I won't rule Diaz out but he'll need to be perfect to beat GSP.
I'm also curious to see how agressive GSP will fight since he really wanted to fight against Diaz and that he wanted to put a whooping on him. Maybe he has found an opening to a finish or maybe he just really hates him.