GOP S.Carolina Primary/Dem Nevada Caucus Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by ShoelessRye, Feb 20, 2016.

  1. ShoelessRye

    ShoelessRye Gold Belt

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    Grand Old Party has their South Carolina Primary today, and Democrats have their NV Caucus - What say you the results?

    Trump - 27
    Cruz - 24
    Rubio - 19
    Bush - 13
    Kasich - 10
    Carson - 7

    Trump has been cratering in polling, while still showing a lead, it was 2x second place finisher until the debate and or Scalia death. It's his own fault for not spending any money on ground game or little on ads, he can mock Bush for spending 20x what he has on his campaign and having nothing to show for it, but Rubio and Cruz are spending tens of millions as well and they do have things to show for it.

    Hillary - 52
    Sanders - 48

    This one has narrowed greatly over the past week as well. Basically the same pattern of Hillary having a huge lead because she is the known brand name and already has ground game and operations in all the States, but Sanders is basically playing State-to-State, and didn't really turn his focus to Nv until after NH. So once he gets into a State with real focus, folks like what they see and hear with him. He's going to run into problems on Super Tuesday when there is 11 States all on one day, but if he wins here, that reverberates into S.Carolina in a major way as he'd have two wins in the first three. If he wins here, I think Hillary has to go hard negative and try to carpet bomb him with negative ads in SC and all Super Tuesday States. Worry about the GE afterwards and repairing the damage, you gotta get there first.

    Both Dems and GOP made the same mistakes early in their primaries - Hillary should have nuked Sanders, and Repubs should have barred Trump from even running - kick him out and double dog dare him to run an indie campaign. He would have never caught on to the level of support he has now as a third party and it would have cost him a lot more money to even try to wage a third party campaign and he would have probably passed on trying. Sanders should have been scored as a socialist outsider who thought himself too pure to even join the Democratic Party or call himself one his whole career. He should have been called out as a lefty loon radical who championed somebody to Primary Pres Obama in 2012. Both Dems and GOP tried to play nice with the fringe nut trying to run in their Primary, thinking nobody would pay attention and they'd just fade away with no hurt feelings and not pissing off any of their base in the process. Now both Trump and Sanders have entrenched bases that will need to be pandered to even if neither win their respective primaries.
     

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