Economy GOP back to Inflation worries. "Hyperinflation" (Update: 2022 Inflation Highest in 40 Years)

[panamaican]

Last proposed bill they were talking about was 10 trillion dollars. If we text all those corporations that you're complaining about getting a break, even though our rates are about the same as most of europe, would it even begin to cover that 10 trillion?

As I said, the question doesn't make any sense. My post was about the prior stimulus and the most effective way to address the excess funds that it created. When they pass a $10 trillion bill, we can talk about it then.

The prior stimulus money will cycle through the economy and eventually end up in Wall Street and corporate balance sheets. The best way to recapture it is to tax the end stage of the cycle. This is more effective than not helping needy Americans. Help the people, recapture it in the tax markets over time.

 

[K1levelgrappler]

The right trots this shit out every time there’s a Democrat president. I guess there’s only so many episodes you can do on transgender sports and Dr. Seuss.

 

[nostradumbass]

What do you mean "back to"? Where did the concerns go? I've said for my entire adult life that spending needs to be cut back, but any time Trump suggested any cuts at all, they were met with screaming about Drumpf wanting to take trombones away from black people and old people.

The only good news is that forex trading is pretty easy these days, so after the traditionally strong month of April for the stock market, Summer might be a good time to bet against the USD and make a few bucks.

Trump was doing massive tax cuts and massive spending. Such nonsense.

The budget isn't the president just deciding what he wants to spend. Congress increased Trump's spending proposals.

https://www.thebalance.com/fy-2019-federal-budget-summary-of-revenue-and-spending-4589082

 

[Scheme]

If anyone actually believes that hyperinflation is coming, there are ways to position yourself to profit off it. You can actually make a real killing if you're right. But no one's doing that because it's not a real belief, in the sense of something that people actually think reflects reality.

https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin

 

[cincymma79]

As I said, the question doesn't make any sense. My post was about the prior stimulus and the most effective way to address the excess funds that it created. When they pass a $10 trillion bill, we can talk about it then.

The prior stimulus money will cycle through the economy and eventually end up in Wall Street and corporate balance sheets. The best way to recapture it is to tax the end stage of the cycle. This is more effective than not helping needy Americans. Help the people, recapture it in the tax markets over time.

So to spur and stalled economy you recommend tax increases on business? Not sure I'd she with that

 

[CantCucktheTuck]

Are democrats mad that republicans stole their big spender shtick?

 

[Rob Battisti]

If anyone actually believes that hyperinflation is coming, there are ways to position yourself to profit off it. You can actually make a real killing if you're right. But no one's doing that because it's not a real belief, in the sense of something that people actually think reflects reality.

Correct me if I’m wrong, the total M3 for USD is just under 20T. Adding in another 10T would seem to dilute and devalue money. I say 10T as hyperbole. I think he’s passed trying to pass 4ish already? Around that?

I’ve been reading a lot on money and I’m hard pressed to find a time in history where money dilution didn’t lead to negative results in the long run. This isn’t to say that a stationary currency is ideal or that inflation isn’t valuable. However, there seems to be a limit to how much you an inject into a monetary system without negative ramifications.

 

[Prefect]

As I said, the question doesn't make any sense. My post was about the prior stimulus and the most effective way to address the excess funds that it created. When they pass a $10 trillion bill, we can talk about it then.

The prior stimulus money will cycle through the economy and eventually end up in Wall Street and corporate balance sheets. The best way to recapture it is to tax the end stage of the cycle. This is more effective than not helping needy Americans. Help the people, recapture it in the tax markets over time.

You have to increase interest rates to reduce the amount of money being lent out so that it more is being paid off than lent.

 

[HeffDoesWant]

Seems he is more using the concerns of asset price inflation than normal inflation, certainly his guest was. These are quite different things.

Yup. I was bitching about printing money even at the first covid stimulus. That one cost every man woman and child in the US $26k

$8.3 trillion????

That seems a way high. Source?

You may be including bond buying amounts in your figures which while not free are pretty close too.

 

[Ophydian]

This isn't reality. Trump kept the faucet wide open during his whole term even when we weren't in a crisis. Obama only open it up for the housing crisis and monetary policies under democratic presidents is much more long term in planning. Reagan boosted the economy with massive deficits. Bush Jr gave us a recession two wars, Trump gave use record deficits year after year and even made huge tax cuts during this.

Trump even mentioned that he didn't care about running up the deficit because by the time he was out of office it wouldn't matter to him. What a great leader and very true to Conservative standards

 

[Ophydian]

Are democrats mad that republicans stole their big spender shtick?

No Dems are laughing at the GOP for doing exactly what they predicted 2 years ago. If anything, the GOP is consistent in regard to monetary spending and the deficit.

 

[Ophydian]

It's really unfortunate the president has the authority to pass spending bills all on his own

But he doesn’t. I know what you are getting at here. But these are Trump own words. We are talking about how the GOP now cares about the deficit so your point misses.

 

[Prutfis]

This was actually a pretty good piece.

 

[Cfpcommitteemember]

Our banking system needs decentralized and we need to base our currency off SOMETHING. At the very least we need to go back to Bretton Woods.
Any conservative who doesn't advocate for the end of fiat currency is just bringing up inflation to win points.

 

[Rational Poster]

"No one's doing that"

Wtf? Literally everyone is. No one is holding cash right now. The stock market had a record year in the middle of a pandemic last year. Bonds are up. Real estates is up. Bitcoin is up. There isn't anybody with any wealth at all that is leaving in the form of USD right now.

You realize none of that shit is worth anything if the USD is worth nothing?

They're not buying these things because of the inflation boogeyman, they're buying these things because they think they're going to be worth more USD in the future.

 

[AndroidRage]

Everyone is surprised that the cost of mcdonald's seems high and lumber and houses and rent and sports cards and... And... Maybe it's the buying power of the dollar that's changed?

Maybe Trump shouldn't have cut taxes and then spent 7 trillion huh?

 

[AndroidRage]

When you are talking about spending $10 trillion in one go, it's a bit different than running a high deficit.

The plan was 10 trillion over 10 years. But no one can expect you dumb fucks to read up on anything.

 

[Rational Poster]

Everyone is surprised that the cost of mcdonald's seems high and lumber and houses and rent and sports cards and... And... Maybe it's the buying power of the dollar that's changed?

What are any of those things worth if the USD is worth nothing?

Are you going to trade your basketball cards for handfuls of cockroaches?

 

[Jack V Savage]

"No one's doing that"

Wtf? Literally everyone is. No one is holding cash right now. The stock market had a record year in the middle of a pandemic last year. Bonds are up. Real estates is up. Bitcoin is up. There isn't anybody with any wealth at all that is leaving in the form of USD right now.

Anyone want to bet on whether this guy did any research at all before making this post? Like even looking up cash holdings by people with "any wealth at all" (needs a definition for that) over time? Pushing past that, you're talking about investments that people expect to make more money than nothing. Even if people are expecting deflation, they're still going to invest in different assets. You're not seeing anyone talking about hyperinflation actually positioning themselves to benefit from it. You can just go to FRED and look up inflation expectations from the market. I'll do it for you, since the idea of looking stuff up rather than just appealing to hackery is alien to you guys:

We actually do see a rise in inflation expectations! All the way up to 2.36%! Scary. Is it possible that the collective expectation set by bond investors is wrong? Sure. Probably is, in one direction or the other. But is it a much better guess than one made by an anonymous message-board poster with no relevant knowledge, no significant skin in the game, poor thinking skills, and who regularly makes bold claims without bothering to do any research? Definitely.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Correct me if I’m wrong, the total M3 for USD is just under 20T. Adding in another 10T would seem to dilute and devalue money. I say 10T as hyperbole. I think he’s passed trying to pass 4ish already? Around that?

I’ve been reading a lot on money and I’m hard pressed to find a time in history where money dilution didn’t lead to negative results in the long run. This isn’t to say that a stationary currency is ideal or that inflation isn’t valuable. However, there seems to be a limit to how much you an inject into a monetary system without negative ramifications.

If someone is saying that there's no downside or risk, that's wrong, but I don't think anyone with influence thinks that. If the question is whether the relief package and infrastructure improvements provide benefits that exceed the downside and risk, I think it's very clear that they do. We're going to see stronger real growth this year than we've seen in a very long time, and we'll start to see some inflationary pressure as a result. Since we've been below target, we'll probably have some catch-up before the Fed moves. Overall, we're entering a really good time for the American economy, IMO, and that probably means that inflation will creep up. See the chart I posted ITT.

How would one profit off it?

Depends how extreme your expectations are. If it's just, like, well-above target inflation but not hyperinflation, you might want to make leveraged bets on high-yield debt (if inflation rises a lot, high-yield debt will be less risky, and lenders are giving away free money). If you really think that we'll have hyperinflation, you might want to again leverage out your ass and buy real estate or something. TIPS don't give you extreme upside, but they protect against any level of inflation (and, again, if you're really highly leveraged, you can get that upside). Lots more you can do. I'm not recommending anything, especially since I believe that the breakeven rate is the best guess.