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Economy GOP back to Inflation worries. "Hyperinflation"

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Oceanmachine, Apr 4, 2021.

  1. Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    I would think any year (e.g., 2021, 2022). But we could go any 12-month period at all (e.g., July 2022 to June 2023). I don't think it's likely to hit 7% even for a month, but I think that's a weird thing to bet on as there's noise in that kind of small slice of data. Next month's comp is also really low so another 5-ish month is possible, but I don't think we'll see it hit that level again for a bit.
     
  2. Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    I'm also willing to bet with you if you want to make a prediction that you'll stand behind.
     
  3. Proud American Banned Banned

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    Even though I view people like you as the enemy of humanity, as an avatar of people who knowingly led us to disaster, I’ll entertain the thought of a wager. What do you have in mind?
     
  4. Rob Battisti HR for HR

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    If you don’t think we’ll hit 7% in a month — bet on it. Averaging for a year, maybe 2023. But who the heck wants a bet on something 2 years in the future.
     
    uppercutbus likes this.
  5. Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    I feel like Rob's about to back out so if you want to bet that we'll average 7% inflation in any 12-month period, I'll take that. Or propose something else if you want.

    I don't see how anyone could have any confidence betting on the peak month in any four-year period would be, and I don't see a bet like that resolving any real difference of opinion (it's like if I said so and so is a lousy hitter, and you wanted to bet that he'll go 4-for-4 at least once during the baseball season--probably not but not a bet that really means anything). How about we go down to a 5% average for any 12-month period? I think we go much lower than that, and your claim to be worrying about inflation looks pretty odd.
     
  6. Proud American Banned Banned

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    How about we bet If the US is 50 Trillion in 4 years. By 2025.

    and we will use that as a benchmark to the unsustainability of our system and the lies that continue it as we speak.

    That’s basically a doubling of the debt in the time of bidens one term.

    edit: sounds like Rob agrees to your previous bet
     
  7. Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    What does the second sentence mean? If you think debt is going to have a negative impact, what is it? Are we going to see high inflation, in your view? Or slow growth? Or what?
     
  8. Rob Battisti HR for HR

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    I will take a 6 month signature bet that the period between May 2021 and May 2022 we will average >5% on the CPI.

    “I’ve got a feeling Rob will back out.” I was just trying to actually see what you wanted to bet on since you wussed out of my initial bet into a more favorable bet toward yourself.
     
    Jack V Savage likes this.
  9. Proud American Banned Banned

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    We will begin to see the Fed printing huge sums of fake money to Just pay the minimum interest payments.

    if the debt doubles again in another 4 years, our debt would be 100 trillion by 2029. The dollar would be worthless. If it doubles in another 4 years, it’ll be 200 trillion by 2034.

    but I hear you’ve spent your life saying debt doesn’t matter. Spend spend spend. Well your lies, or maybe it’s your mistake, is gonna hit the unmovable mountain and we are all gonna suffer.

    I would say we will see the dollar plummet in value. And it already is.
     
  10. GhostZ06 Steel Belt

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    [email protected] tucker i pooped my pants face man.
     
  11. Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    Our initial talk had some ambiguity, and I said from the start that reasonable expectations were very different depending on how it resolved. "Gas prices are going to soar" is a different claim than "gas prices could fluctuate a lot and possibly briefly hit a high level." Similar with inflation. But OK, I'm down for that. I accept 6-month sig that CPI will be <5% (you win if it's equal) average during that period. @Lead, can you record this one in the bet thread?
     
  12. Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    So you're saying you expect high inflation, yes? How high, and when?
     
  13. Mark Hunts FIST Black Belt Platinum Member

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    I'm sure Democrats love paying more for the same product.

    I know most of you live with your parents and do not to buy the groceries but for the rest of us, it sucks.
     
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  14. Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    That's an odd angle to take. The actual discussion is about whether prices will rise as much as people think, not whether prices rising is good.
     
  15. Rob Battisti HR for HR

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    Whatever you say. Sounds like a deal!
     
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  16. Rob Battisti HR for HR

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    @Jack V Savage its kind of funny. If I win, I really lose. If I lose, I really win!
     
    Jack V Savage likes this.
  17. Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    Well, if we see inflation around that level at that time, that'll mean the economy is booming like we've never seen. So the inflation itself could be annoying, but your income and investments would be doing great.
     
    sickc0d3r likes this.
  18. Mark Hunts FIST Black Belt Platinum Member

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    I made a quick knee jerk reaction to the title of of post.
    "GOP back to inflation worries"..
    Are we not all concerned about inflation and how it impacts our daily lives?
     
  19. Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    Throughout Obama's presidency, Republicans constantly pushed the idea that hyperinflation was just around the corner, while most economists were saying that there was no threat there (excessively low inflation was a bigger threat). Turned out the economists were right, and the analysis underlying the view that inflation was about to soar was just obviously bad. Then while Trump was in office, hacks suddenly stopped caring about inflation, even though all the same dynamics were in play, and he greatly increased long-term debt with an ill-advised regressive tax cut. And now as soon as Biden takes office, all of a sudden (again), we're seeing predictions of hyperinflation again. Seeing a bump in inflation *is* actually more likely now than it was during Obama's presidency (when the country was still plagued by a private debt overhang that was slowing the recovery--which required more gov't spending that wasn't coming) because the situation this time is something that will be easier to recover from, and we're set up for a boom beyond that with major action. But hyperinflation or even levels that are a problem remains pretty much off the table. The worst-case scenario is not actually high inflation but the Fed having to raise rates to tame it and slowing growth, but that would be slowing growth from very strong levels. IMO, we're set for some of the best economic times in anyone's lifetime in the next few years.
     
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  20. PolishHeadlock2 Gold Belt

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