Economy GOP back to Inflation worries. "Hyperinflation" (Update: 2022 Inflation Highest in 40 Years)

[Jack V Savage]

what’s your thoughts on this piece from Yellen?

https://apple.news/ARV9Ctn17T_aGU_Hg8a3XMw

Yeah, that's pretty much conventional wisdom but underrated by inflation doomers. If there are signs that inflation is becoming a problem, the Fed will just raise rates and control it. That could slow the economy down, but it would only happen if the economy was seriously booming anyway. In 2021 America, there's just no reason for any short-term concern about inflation (the longer-term concern would be that if people no longer believe that the Fed is reliably committed to controlling it, we could see some problems, but there is no evidence that that's on the horizon).

 

[DavidsGhost]

It's really not, though. I'm not aware of any economists predicting that inflation will cause a recession. If you look at the numbers more carefully, what we're seeing is some supply bottlenecks as the economy comes back faster than expected in some areas, along with really weak YOY comparisons. Two-year core inflation is only 2.6%.

yeah, I agree with that general perspective. The economic rebound was much faster than anticipated.

that’s the main driver. But there are economists worried about recession, it’s in the times report today.


I think it was a hard thing to predict.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Much of it currently is a mix of supplychain and money printing. But the money printing issue will still remain after the supply chain stuff clears up.

Money printing isn't a factor.

Anyway, are you down for the CPI bet?

 

[Rob Battisti]

Money printing isn't a factor.

Anyway, are you down for the CPI bet?

You originally bet the gas prices. I’d bet we’d see inflation reach > 7% during Bidens admin. I’d also bet gas > $4 national average in the next 12 months. Would 6 month AV bet them.

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

As somebody that recently became an independent contractor I'm loving this inflation and these tight labor markets $$$$$$$$

 

[Jack V Savage]

You originally bet the gas prices. I’d bet we’d see inflation reach > 7% during Bidens admin. I’d also bet gas > $4 national average in the next 12 months. Would 6 month AV bet them.

Yeah, just that you raised the issue of 10% inflation, which I think has zero chance of happening so that was a more-attractive bet. I think gas prices are about as likely to be down as up over the next 12 months (or the next X period of time, generally), in part because expectations affect prices. So the bet is really (from my perspective at least) on volatility, and I think that is likely to be somewhat high because of the economic boom. I'd still predict that we won't see prices touch $4/gallon, but I'm not sure if it rises the standard I like to hold here. And I'll admit that my perfect record in the bet thread (11-0) makes me a little more conservative.

Ed: I'll take the 7% CPI bet if you want. I'd rather do a sig than an AV, though.

 

[Ophydian]

Honestly I think when production catches up post-covid, the price of goods will come down a bit.. maybe within the next six month. Cars, lumber, food, etc. The chip shortage is the real cunt in all of this.

The cost of money though, will start getting expensive within the next 12 months. Once inflation hits about 2 percent, that's when the fed will start escalating.

I agree with this from what I am seeing in multiple sectors. The labor issue is one part of it, getting things made, shipped and installed. I also believe that a number of corporations were slow in responding either due to fear of another temporary shutdown or they didn't expect the economy to come back this fast. I've done a bit of traveling lately and it seems that most airlines, hotels and rental car companies are scrambling and very unorganized.

 

[TeTe]

I agree with this from what I am seeing in multiple sectors. The labor issue is one part of it, getting things made, shipped and installed. I also believe that a number of corporations were slow in responding either due to fear of another temporary shutdown or they didn't expect the economy to come back this fast. I've done a bit of traveling lately and it seems that most airlines, hotels and rental car companies are scrambling and very unorganized.

Rental car companies are desperately buying up used cars since they sold off half their fleets during the pandemic. They're part of the reason cars are so damn expensive now. That and the fact auto manufacturers have production on ice because of the chip shortage. I can't buy a damn Xbox Series X because of the chip shortage dammit!

 

[Ophydian]

Rental car companies are desperately buying up used cars since they sold off half their fleets during the pandemic. They're part of the reason cars are so damn expensive now. That and the fact auto manufacturers have production on ice because of the chip shortage. I can't buy a damn Xbox Series X because of the chip shortage dammit!

At Boston Logan they had cars but they weren't cleaned. At BWI they had clean cars but for some reason, I am not sure about, they wouldn't let Gold members pick out their own. You had to wait 15 or so minutes for someone to come and gather people as a group and then give you a specific car in a specific spot.

My guess is that in places that don't have a worker shortage the issue is that the workers are not yet fully trained.

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

https://www.reuters.com/business/fu...tent&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

U.S. stocks rose on Thursday and the S&P 500 hit a record intraday high as investors juggled signs of a swift economic recovery with concerns over the Federal Reserve tapering its massive monetary stimulus.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index increased by a more-than-expected 0.6% last month. In the 12 months through May, CPI accelerated at its biggest year-on-year increase since August 2008. read more

The jump partly reflected the dropping of last spring's weak readings from the calculation. These so-called base effects are expected to level off in June.

"The numbers were slightly more than expected, but not way outside of the range ... I don't think this going to change the Fed's view of keeping rates very low," said Mark Grant, chief global strategist, B. Riley Financial.


The S&P 500 (.SPX) hit a record high of 4,249.74. But heavyweight technology stocks were among the top performers, indicating that investors were still sticking to sectors that had proven reliable through the COVID-19 pandemic.

Focus will now be on the Fed's monetary policy meeting next week for more clues about the central bank's stance on tapering its massive stimulus.

A separate report on Thursday from the Labor Department also showed the number of Americans filing for jobless claims fell less than expected last week.

At 11:39 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) was up 123.39 points, or 0.36%, at 34,570.53 and the S&P 500 (.SPX) was up 18.18 points, or 0.43%, at 4,237.73. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) was up 65.48 points, or 0.47%, at 13,977.23.


Upbeat comments from European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde on transitory euro zone inflation and improving economic trends also helped support sentiment.

The S&P industrials sector (.SPLRCI) lagged its peers, falling 0.2% as investors appeared to be pricing in a smaller than hoped for infrastructure spending package. Talks over the bill had hit a deadlock in the Senate. read more

So-called "meme" stocks, which have dominated trading volumes in recent weeks,were again volatile, with several recent retail darlings including Clover Health (CLOV.O) and AMC (AMC.N) flitting between losses and gains. read more

GameStop Corp (GME.N), the stock most closely associated with the retail buying frenzy this year, fell 14.7% after the company said it may sell new shares, and that the SEC had asked for certain documents as part of its investigation into the stock's rally this year. read more


Boeing (BA.N) rose 0.8% after sources told Reuters United Airlines (UAL.O) was in talks to place a multi-billion-dollar order for single-aisle jets potentially split between Boeing and Europe's Airbus (AIR.PA). read more

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.55-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.17-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P index recorded 48 new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 72 new highs and nine new lows.

 

[MMA Time Soldier]

We're seeing individual prices rise for reasons that are unconnected with inflation (supply-chain issues + weak annual comps), properly understood, related to the strong recovery. I don't think there will be deflation. And the Fed has indicated that they plan to start treating the target as a target rather than as a ceiling, meaning that they can allow a little above-target inflation to counteract periods of below-target inflation. I'd bet that we'll see 2%-plus for a bit, but over 3% for any sustained period is pretty unlikely, and people predicting double digits or whatever are completely nuts.

It's likely to blow up in the face of White Privilege Joe Biden.

Inflation is what doomed Jimmy Carter who came in after unlikeable cheater Richard Nixon.
And Jimmy Carter was actually a very good guy unlike White Privilege Joe Biden.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Yeah, just that you raised the issue of 10% inflation, which I think has zero chance of happening so that was a more-attractive bet. I think gas prices are about as likely to be down as up over the next 12 months (or the next X period of time, generally), in part because expectations affect prices. So the bet is really (from my perspective at least) on volatility, and I think that is likely to be somewhat high because of the economic boom. I'd still predict that we won't see prices touch $4/gallon, but I'm not sure if it rises the standard I like to hold here. And I'll admit that my perfect record in the bet thread (11-0) makes me a little more conservative.

Ed: I'll take the 7% CPI bet if you want. I'd rather do a sig than an AV, though.

7% over what period of time? Reaches 7% during any point in the 12 months?


6 month AV bet (or sig if you’re yella)
CPI will reach 7% at some point between now and 7/1/22.

 

[Jack V Savage]

7% over what period of time? Reaches 7% during any point in the 12 months?

6 month AV bet (or sig if you’re yella)
CPI will reach 7% at some point between now and 7/1/22.

YOY average for a year would be the right way to look at this IMO.

 

[Rob Battisti]

YOY average for a year would be the right way to look at this IMO.

So you want to average >7% for a year? Starting when? If you think it will hit 7 what number do you think it won’t hit?

 

[Jack V Savage]

So you want to average >7% for a year? Starting when? If you think it will hit 7 what number do you think it won’t hit?

I would think any year (e.g., 2021, 2022). But we could go any 12-month period at all (e.g., July 2022 to June 2023). I don't think it's likely to hit 7% even for a month, but I think that's a weird thing to bet on as there's noise in that kind of small slice of data. Next month's comp is also really low so another 5-ish month is possible, but I don't think we'll see it hit that level again for a bit.

 

[Jack V Savage]

What do you think about national debt and our future printing a ton of money to pay just the interest payments? How will that not cause even worse inflation? Case in point...the us debt clock.

right now, when Biden just came into office it’s at 28.39 Trillion.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html

Using this tool By 2025, at the end of bidens term, the us debt will be 50.2 Trillion. With a T! That’s almost doubling in 4 years.

don’t listen to jack about how debt doesn’t matter. He’s an idiot of the worst kind IMO when it comes to things like this

I'm also willing to bet with you if you want to make a prediction that you'll stand behind.

 

[Rob Battisti]

I would think any year (e.g., 2021, 2022). But we could go any 12-month period at all (e.g., July 2022 to June 2023). I don't think it's likely to hit 7% even for a month, but I think that's a weird thing to bet on as there's noise in that kind of small slice of data. Next month's comp is also really low so another 5-ish month is possible, but I don't think we'll see it hit that level again for a bit.

If you don’t think we’ll hit 7% in a month — bet on it. Averaging for a year, maybe 2023. But who the heck wants a bet on something 2 years in the future.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Even though I view people like you as the enemy of humanity, as an avatar of people who knowingly led us to disaster, I’ll entertain the thought of a wager. What do you have in mind?

I feel like Rob's about to back out so if you want to bet that we'll average 7% inflation in any 12-month period, I'll take that. Or propose something else if you want.

If you don’t think we’ll hit 7% in a month — bet on it. Averaging for a year, maybe 2023. But who the heck wants a bet on something 2 years in the future.

I don't see how anyone could have any confidence betting on the peak month in any four-year period would be, and I don't see a bet like that resolving any real difference of opinion (it's like if I said so and so is a lousy hitter, and you wanted to bet that he'll go 4-for-4 at least once during the baseball season--probably not but not a bet that really means anything). How about we go down to a 5% average for any 12-month period? I think we go much lower than that, and your claim to be worrying about inflation looks pretty odd.

 

[Jack V Savage]

How about we bet If the US is 50 Trillion in 4 years. By 2025.

and we will use that as a benchmark to the unsustainability of our system and the lies that continue it as we speak.

That’s basically a doubling of the debt in the time of bidens one term.

edit: sounds like Rob agrees to your previous bet

What does the second sentence mean? If you think debt is going to have a negative impact, what is it? Are we going to see high inflation, in your view? Or slow growth? Or what?

 

[Rob Battisti]

I feel like Rob's about to back out so if you want to bet that we'll average 7% inflation in any 12-month period, I'll take that. Or propose something else if you want.



I don't see how anyone could have any confidence betting on the peak month in any four-year period would be, and I don't see a bet like that resolving any real difference of opinion (it's like if I said so and so is a lousy hitter, and you wanted to bet that he'll go 4-for-4 at least once during the baseball season--probably not but not a bet that really means anything). How about we go down to a 5% average for any 12-month period? I think we go much lower than that, and your claim to be worrying about inflation looks pretty odd.

I will take a 6 month signature bet that the period between May 2021 and May 2022 we will average >5% on the CPI.

“I’ve got a feeling Rob will back out.” I was just trying to actually see what you wanted to bet on since you wussed out of my initial bet into a more favorable bet toward yourself.