Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Aug 5, 2018.
Buying tickets to this event. Hopefully we'll get lines on most of the fights.
glad we get some fighting this weekend.
Opening odds at BetDSI:
Glory Kickboxing 56: Denver
August 10, 2018
1stBank Center - Broomfield, Colorado
Glory 56 - (Live on ESPN 12AM ET)
Light Heavyweight Title (95 kg)
Danyo Ilunga +475
Artem Vakhitov -825
Over 3.5 -150
Under 3.5 +110
Women's Super Bantamweight Title (55 kg)
Jady Menezes +1000
Anissa Meksen -2000
Over 4.5 -555
Under 4.5 +365
Featherweight (65 kg)
Anvar Boynazarov +260
Serhiy Adamchuk -380
Over 2.5 -245
Under 2.5 +175
Glory 56 Superfight Series - (UFC Fight Pass 9:30PM ET)
Middleweight (85 kg)
Jason Wilnis -120
Simon Marcus -120
Over 2.5 -270
Under 2.5 +190
Light Heavyweight (95 kg)
John King +180
Chris Camozzi -260
Over 2.5 -150
Under 2.5 +110
We got Rizin also!"
Anyone knows if Pinnacle have odds for Glory?
No, I’ve never noticed them listed there.
Glory 56 weigh-in notables and handicapping notes:
Former UFC & Glory middleweight Chris Camozzi is still bigger than his more experienced opponent John King even up at his new weight class of light heavyweight for their tournament bout. Camozzi ran over his undersized opponent in his Glory debut but looked outmatched against a more experienced kickboxer Mike Lemaire in his sophomore effort, dropping a decision for his trouble. I like the over 2½ rounds at -150 in a fight that probably goes the distance and a small half-unit stab on John King at +210. King has nice kicks that he can score with and win rounds if he doesn't allow Camozzi to land as many punches to his head as he did with another UFC veteran Thiago Silva in King's Glory debut.
I guess there's no maximum weight limit in Glory since heavyweight D'Angelo Marshall's opponent Antonio Dvorak weighed in at a whopping 289 pounds while still looking pretty fit. Too bad no odds on this bout or I'd take the under here in this battle of the big boys.
In the Superfight Series featured fight, former middleweight champions Jason Wilnis and Simon Marcus had some real heat and got into a pushing match during the face-off in advance of this fourth meeting between the pair. The bookies opened it as a pick 'em, and I couldn't fault anyone for taking a position on either fighter at +money. But for me, based on how the previous fights went, I lean Wilnis to win. Simon won the first bout by split decision to capture a contender tournament trophy and get his shot at Artem Levin and win the belt. Wilnis then got revenge by stopping a reckless Marcus by highlight reel KO at their second meeting to take the belt for himself, and then finally losing it in what I thought was a controversial split decision in their third meeting in 2017. Despite Wilnis coming off a TKO by cut against Yousri Belgaroui and Marcus coming off a fast KO against a lesser opponent like Zack Wells, I like the better kickboxer Wilnis in my opinion to take this bout. So I bet Wilnis a slight favorite to win a couple units, especially after watching Wilnis hitting the bag in his Inside Glory footage while Marcus was doing charity work for underprivileged children in his native country of Jamaica.
In a featherweight main card bout, I really like former champion Serhiy Adamchuk from Ukraine to defeat Uzbek striker Anvar Boynazarov as a significant -350 to -420 favorite. Adamchuk has only lost in Glory to the elite of the division like Robin van Roosmalen and Petch while Anvar, despite being heavy handed, has lost more fights in Glory than he has won and is at a height disadvantage here as well. This is a big bet for me despite the chalk. Adamchuk is a decision machine so I also really like the over 2½ rounds at -245 too.
In the co-main event women's super bantamweight champion Anissa Meksen defends her belt for the third time against Brazilian kickboxer Jady Menezes who she decisioned in her Glory debut. Jady has a good work rate and it would not shock me to see her win a round or even two in this five round bout, despite the vast gulf in experience for Anissa. Meksen is a huge favorite- as high as -2000 at some books and rightly so- with the comeback on Menezes at +1000 or better. It's hard to bet against perhaps the best female kickboxer in the world, but at these lopsided odds, I can't resist putting a half unit flyer on a confident sounding Menezes in case she learned something from the first bout and she presses the action enough to make rounds close. The obvious over 2½ at -555 is way too juiced though.
In the main event, light heavyweight champion Artem Vakhitov is defending his belt against dangerous Congolese-German kickboxer Danyo Ilunga who himself has dozens of knockouts while interim light heavyweight champion Pavel Zhuralev is taking time off with an injury. Ilunga turned around a long seven fight losing skid from 2015-2017 with two victories in the most recent nine months to earn this title shot, in a rematch against Vakhitov. The champion is a huge favorite in the -900 range, so pretty difficult to back against a hard hitting opponent like Ilunga. Even though their first bout went the three round distance in 2015, I'm making a small play on the under 3½ rounds at +110 since that gives Artem a bit more time to finish the challenger and cashes if Ilunga gets the big upset in the most likely way to win that he has, by knockout.
I'm on Marcus. If this was a 5 rounder this would be a different story, but I think a 3 rounder favors Marcus and I see him getting the decision victory here. Wilnis is often a slow starter and I think on volume alone Marcus will win at least 2 of the 3 rounds. If Wilnis doesn't get the KO or at least a KD, which might give him an extra round, I really don't see him winning a decision here.
From a fans perspective I wish this would be a 5 rounder, because this is one hell of a fight and I would like to see the Dutch man win, but under these circumstances I'm pretty big on Marcus between -114 & +115.
I missed out on Adamchuk who's at -500 now, hopefully BetOnline releases over/unders, so I can make some more bets for this event.
Tempted to play King over Camozzi @ +200. I don’t necessarily feel like I have a great read on the matchup, but it definitely feels like Camozzi is priced too high.
I played King small at +210. Camozzi is bigger and maybe has better punches, but King has more kickboxing experience and far better kicks. I'm heavy on the over 2½ in this bout too.
That’s kinda how I feel too. I don’t have odds on the O/U but it feels like it’ll be a close decision either way so I’m ok with taking +200 on the dog. Camozzi is far from a well-seasoned kickboxer.
Next to my bet on Marcus, I'm also big on the over 2.5 in the Adamchuk-Boynazarov fight @1,40. Their first fight went to a decision and Adamchuk went to decision in all of his Glory fights, so 1,40 is a great price. Might also throw a little bit on Ilunga at crazy odds if I'm feeling like it later tonight.
Glory 56 Risk $2,240.15
Artem Vakhitov/Danyo Ilunga Under 3½ (+120) $50.00 for $60.00
Artem Vakhitov/Danyo Ilunga Under 3½ (+110) $40.15 for $44.17
Jady Menezes (+1075) vs Anissa Meksen $50.00 for $537.50
Serhiy Adamchuk (-350) vs Anvar Boynazarov $700.00 for $200.00
Serhiy Adamchuk (-410) vs Anvar Boynazarov $205.00 for $50.00
Serhiy Adamchuk/Anvar Boynazarov Over 2½ (-245) $245.00 for $100.00
Serhiy Adamchuk/Anvar Boynazarov Over 2½ (-250) $250.00 for $100.00
Jason Wilnis (-115) vs Simon Marcus $57.50 for $50.00
Jason Wilnis (-120) vs Simon Marcus $60.00 for $50.00
Jason Wilnis (-120) vs Simon Marcus $60.00 for $50.00
Jason Wilnis (-125) vs Simon Marcus $62.50 for $50.00
John King (+210) vs Chris Camozzi $50.00 for $105.00
John King/Chris Camozzi Over 2½ (-150) $150.00 for $100.00
John King/Chris Camozzi Over 2½ (-170) $85.00 for $50.00
John King/Chris Camozzi Over 2½ (-175) $175.00 for $100.00
Separate names with a comma.