International Geopolitics and technology threaten America’s financial dominance

[Oceanmachine]

Maybe if you stop fear mongering and actually look at the demographic data of China, then you'll realize US is going to come out on top in the long game. I guess you're too busy calling people idiotic names to actually read these days.

All your posts are all the same now that I see. You are the "America is the greatest" nothing wrong or to fear guy.

Okay tell yourself that. Mcconnell cares for most Americans and is a long term planner. So doea Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. Or Maxine watters and Schumer.

 

[Lead]

Yeah Germany and most of western europe wont ever have future separtisim or ethno religjous conflicts or clash of cultures. All new immigrants are atheists capitalist shills who only see themselves as costs of goods sold and all wish to identify and direct germany in a united manner in addition to unity against science that is not PC.

That's quite a strawman there if you are proposing that's what I'm saying. I never said immigration is an absolute good and even said it was "a nice option to have". Obviously if your country sucks at assimilation or vetting, it's going to have growing issues that could outweigh the positives.

 

[ElKarlo]

Do you think there are key things that would prompt the world to find a different reserve currency? Or is the US just far and above the safest bet in the near term future?

Think the US is by far the safest and most embedded.
Also the US has handled the banking crisis. While the EU didn't. China also hasn't had a real baking crisis, and I'd question the yuan during that. I feel that China would have arbitrary rules and regulations and would make holding their currency much like investing in Islamic bonds. Subject to unknown and random events and laws

 

[San Marino]

Do you think there are key things that would prompt the world to find a different reserve currency? Or is the US just far and above the safest bet in the near term future?

Fiat money (currency)?
...but the U.S., and the dollar, still holds the number one spot with over 8,000 tones of gold in its vaults – nearly as much as the next three countries combined.

 

[Sauron]

Think of this as the middle of a marathon. China suddenly sprinted for the past few miles and looks like it's catching up with the frontrunner Murica. It may even surpass Murica for a while, but it can't sustain that speed forever and they will tire themselves out before the last few miles.

The thing with China is that they're not even close to maturity yet. Once the Chinese become major consumers, and their economy transitions towards high technology [on a large scale] and services, we'll then them become a lot more powerful.

They'll definitely surpass the US and stay ahead simply because of their market size. A race is a poor analogy because where exactly is the start and end. China used to be the most powerful country on earth. That's why it's called the sleeping dragon. This idea that China will implode due to demographic trends is just wishful thinking.

 

[Sauron]

The problem that the US is making is that they've increasingly weaponised their financial system and economy. While short-term this allows them to wield enormous power it incentives those angered by it to pursue alternative measures.

Just like the semiconductor debacle. Short-term it looks good for the US to stick it to Huawei, but they'll survive, and the Chinese will push like made to create their own alternatives; and that's exactly what they are doing. The more dangerous side of this for the US is that it will also strip US products out of Chinese supply chains. So it's a double hit. Already companies are marketing their products as EAR (Export Administration Regulation) free to China. Given that China is one of the largest growing market, and responsible for a decent percentage of many semiconductor company sales, this will just hurt US companies, and advantage their rivals. The result is that US companies lose billions in sales, and then get hit when Chinese semiconductor companies reach parity in a few years time (probably quicker than expected).

Now this is just the thin end of the wedge. Similar stuff is probably happening in banking, insurance and other areas where reliance is placed on the US. I imagine the Chinese are looking at any area where there are 'US points of failure'.

If US dollar dominance comes to an end then the US loses a lot of flexibility. They won't just be able to print money without suffering the consequences.

 

[Orgasmo]

All your posts are all the same now that I see. You are the "America is the greatest" nothing wrong or to fear guy.

Okay tell yourself that. Mcconnell cares for most Americans and is a long term planner. So doea Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. Or Maxine watters and Schumer.

Your doom and gloom prediction for US is simply off the mark. US is and will remain the greatest power on earth for the foreseeable future. It's not surrounded by hostile neighbors like China. It does not have an aging population. It is flanked by two oceans that provides natural barriers to foreign invasion. The continent is abundant with resources. It literally could sit back and watch the world burn, and it did before WWI.

You actually believes half the shit that comes out of American politicians mouths? You believe there is a boogeyman in your closet too?

 

[Sauron]

Your doom and gloom prediction for US is simply off the mark. US is and will remain the greatest power on earth for the foreseeable future...

The US will always be a powerful country. However, China will overtake the US sometime in the next decade. I don't know why that is seen as a doom and gloom scenario. What it will mean is that the US will actually have to compete, and won't have it easy as they've had it before.

For a long time the US has benefited from its relative power i.e. it's rivals were just incredibly weak. That's now coming to an end. A new era of competition has started. There's lots of areas where China isn't overtly challenging the US, but I think they will come. Just like the US transitioned from an isolationist power to an interventionist one, so will China. But China will only do it when it's ready to compete. Until then it will bide it's time and develop the infrastructure necessary. Economic and technology decoupling is just one part of the process.

There will come a time when companies, even countries, may choose China over the US for their trade. At that point the US will have to decide whether it wants to continue with its feckless, self-destructive weaponisation of its economy.