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I think your overrating Reneau's striking a lot. She's good but top 3-4 is a huge stretch. Cyborg, Nunes, Shevchenko, Holm, Joanna, Rose, Ansaroff, GDR etc. are all far better.
Reneau is a better striker than Ansaroff, Joanna, and Holm on every level. She is technically better than Cyborg, but lacks her power. Shevchenko and Rose are roughly on her level. (There are things Reneau does better, things she does worse) Nunes and GDR are better than her on every level.
Jordan3399 said:Don't get me wrong, I really like Reneau, a 40 something full time teacher still going out and beating up girls like Sara McMann is awesome but a girl like Yana who while not exceptional is easily well rounded enough to win a decision comfortably. I was also a bit concerned with stuff like Yana's loss in 2016 but after watching it I'm really not, the fight should of been stopped way before with Yana winning by TKO from mount twice and then she hit an armbar too all in 3 minutes. She then just got so wild trying to get the finish (the ref just didn't want to stop it) and she left her arm out and got caught.
The striking should be competitive but then Yana's takedowns and top time should allow her to cruise to a decision, all she has to do is play it safe on top and its an easy win. It's not like anyone's ever had a problem taking down Reneau or that her guard is that dangerous, she just actually has a BJJ black belt which against most of the trash she faced for a big deal. As only a slight fav I think Yana is a pretty solid bet all though as I said Reneau NSC or sub could be an easy hedge.
I'm not going off old fights. I'm basing this on Kunitskaya's last two fights, against Cyborg and Lansberg.
You're gambling that a fighter with very average wrestling and no GnP or top game will lay-and-pray her way to a decision while avoiding subs from the bottom and not getting hurt standing, where she is so horrendous that 10 seconds worth of exchanges are dangerous to her. At favorite odds.