General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - January, 2019

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by 2bet, Jan 1, 2019.

  1. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Green Belt

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    I hate betting on 41 year-old fighters, but Reneau is one of the top 3-4 strikers in all of WMMA with a dangerous guard game who is betrayed by having arguably the worst TDD in the entirety of the UFC.

    Kunitskaya just plain sucks. Her stand-up is horrendous and Reneau should land at will. Kunitskaya's wrestling is very average, although likely enough to get Reneau down a few times. Still, her only "offense" from the top is a can-opener.

    I can see passing on the fight, but I definitely wouldn't bet Kunitskaya on favorite odds.
     
  2. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    I think your overrating Reneau's striking a lot. She's good but top 3-4 is a huge stretch. Cyborg, Nunes, Shevchenko, Holm, Joanna, Rose, Ansaroff, GDR etc. are all far better. Reneau is just way too happy off her back but not actually anywhere near effective enough against a semi-competent fighter and everyone of her opponents knows to just expect the same triangle she always goes for. Her fight IQ is just awful as well pulling guard on an ADCC gold medalist like Zingano.

    Don't get me wrong, I really like Reneau, a 40 something full time teacher still going out and beating up girls like Sara McMann is awesome but a girl like Yana who while not exceptional is easily well rounded enough to win a decision comfortably. I was also a bit concerned with stuff like Yana's loss in 2016 but after watching it I'm really not, the fight should of been stopped way before with Yana winning by TKO from mount twice and then she hit an armbar too all in 3 minutes. She then just got so wild trying to get the finish (the ref just didn't want to stop it) and she left her arm out and got caught.

    The striking should be competitive but then Yana's takedowns and top time should allow her to cruise to a decision, all she has to do is play it safe on top and its an easy win. It's not like anyone's ever had a problem taking down Reneau or that her guard is that dangerous, she just actually has a BJJ black belt which against most of the trash she faced for a big deal. As only a slight fav I think Yana is a pretty solid bet all though as I said Reneau NSC or sub could be an easy hedge.
     
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  3. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Green Belt

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    Reneau is a better striker than Ansaroff, Joanna, and Holm on every level. She is technically better than Cyborg, but lacks her power. Shevchenko and Rose are roughly on her level. (There are things Reneau does better, things she does worse) Nunes and GDR are better than her on every level.

    I'm not going off old fights. I'm basing this on Kunitskaya's last two fights, against Cyborg and Lansberg.

    You're gambling that a fighter with very average wrestling and no GnP or top game will lay-and-pray her way to a decision while avoiding subs from the bottom and not getting hurt standing, where she is so horrendous that 10 seconds worth of exchanges are dangerous to her. At favorite odds.
     
  4. Xuh

    Xuh Black Belt

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    Kunitskaya could win straightforwardly by wall n' stalling Renau IMO, but I don't think I'd bet her as a favourite to do that.

    Striking at range Reneau will certainly win, & on the mat I'd be extremely worried about Kunitskaya getting subbed. OK she's been training in America lately and sub defense might be the easiest/quickest area to improve in, but she was getting subbed by cans before that and Reneau can be tricky on the mat.
    So that presents quite a few problems for Kunitskaya to negotiate during the fight IMO.
     
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  5. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    Once again, what are you thinking when you write this?

    Reneau lost every round of a fight that was almost entirely striking to Holly Holm... Yet she's is a worse striker on every level lmfao.

    The fact you are even comparing her to someone like Shevchenko is honestly in the politest way possible absolutely mental. Shevchenko is several levels above Reneau and it's not close nor debatable.

    Forgetting the rest of what you said, I have to clarify, are you trolling?

    I mean you just claimed a girl that was losing rounds striking to Ashlee Evans Smith and Bethe Correia is better than multiple world champions in Muay Thai, Kickboxing and Boxing. Please try and read that out to yourself and see if you still agree with it.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2019
  6. Kyle Stephens

    Kyle Stephens Blue Belt

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    I'm gonna take a break from betting for the next event. That Baby Albini bet was embarassing to say the least. :( I have a lot of money already on Vick for the ESPN card. I'm feeling very good about this bet. I had my doubts about Albini regardless of the units that I put on him, the more the fight was closing in, the more I realised this was a degen bet... But here betting a fighter with number of UFC fights in the double digits and smart as him is making my mind at ease.

    (I think Kunitzkaya is gonna win, but @ fav odds, it's not the best bet IMO)
     
  7. usernamee

    usernamee Brown Belt

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    Don't take a break bro! Back on the horse! I feel like contemplating whether I should even continue to bet after last nights disaster but gotta get back in it. Gotta get my confidence back.
     
  8. Kyle Stephens

    Kyle Stephens Blue Belt

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    @usernamee thanks for the encouragement, but I gotta reset and evaluate where I did wrong and also avoid chasing losses. If I bet immediately after big loss it's more likely to bet emotionally. I'm going to watch the event and take notes, but won't put money on it...
     
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  9. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    I think you need to just spread your bets more and not commit so heavily to so few outcomes. It wasn't that Albini was a bad bet, but going 5u on a guy like that is a poor strategy overall. Each events either going to be a massive win or loss and you miss a lot of potential value elsewhere. A couple units on 3-4 fights will probably be way better long term and it won't be a case of one punch ruining your whole night.
     
  10. Kyle Stephens

    Kyle Stephens Blue Belt

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    Guess you are right, Jordan.
     
  11. Foghorn Leghorn

    Foghorn Leghorn Blue Belt

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    Don't bet big on a fighter wearing a diaper. Sound advice that we should all agree on. I'm trying to get back into this gambling game again, I haven't had as much time in awhile.

    Appreciate the analysis you guys bring. Love the heated debates as well, because it's what the normal UFC board should be but obviously isn't.

    Should have dumped everything on Aldo last night (but did some and won, so that's got me back in the game).
     
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  12. ClipYourDirtyWings

    ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    I try not to blast people for personal opinions here, but you say some odd stuff, man.
     
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  13. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Green Belt

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    Yeah, people told me the same thing when I claimed Nunes had much better stand-up than Cyborg or (last event) that Rozenstruik had way better striking than Albini. Seems like a few people on here could improve their results by listening to my "odd" views on striking, which I've been training and studying in some form since I was a child.

    But for some, talking trash takes precendence over knowledge.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2019
  14. ClipYourDirtyWings

    ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    Based on how that fight played out, I would definitely say Albini was the sharp bet, especially if you hit the early line like most of us did. Albini hurt the “76-6” kickboxer on the feet and nearly subbed him also. I think your problem is budgeting your plays inappropriately, like Albini was a good bet, but max-betting him wasn’t. You typically offer good insight, you’re one of the handful I specifically look for in each thread. You will bounce back.
     
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  15. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Green Belt

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    I must have missed where Albini ever "hurt" Rozenstruik. Albini did land a good punch near the end of the first round against Rozenstruik, but it barely even fazed him. Which was to be expected, since Rozenstruik has an absolutely steel chin, as both his MMA and kickboxing tape attest to.

    "Nearly subbed" is also a bit of wishful thinking. Albini had dominant position on the ground and some chances of pulling off a kimura, an at-best medium-percentage submission which is heavily, heavily dependent on raw physical strength. (Notice how many times Bader got a clean kimura in much better position against Mitrione, yet couldn't pull it off, since Mitrione, like Rozenstruik, is a strong son-of-a-bitch)

    When I think of "nearly subbed", I think of Taila Santos very nearly finishing Borella with a rear-naked choke, a high-percentage submission she had fully locked in. (Which would have been devastating to my results for the night as I had it FGD, but also devastating for the many people betting on Borella)
     
  16. ClipYourDirtyWings

    ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    Didn’t I see you say you lost money on this card?
     
  17. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Green Belt

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    I wasn't referring to you with that quote, but someone else.

    That being said, no, I didn't lose money on UFN 144. I made several posts stating how I did overall. You seem to mix up fighters, matches, and even forum members a lot, though.
     
  18. ClipYourDirtyWings

    ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    So you essentially accomplished nothing on the card, my bad. You come across as really condescending and arrogant for a guy who isn’t bringing much to the table in the way of profitable input, which, if I had to guess, is why you seem to get shit on a lot. Wish you the best of luck in the future
     
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  19. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Green Belt

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    If you want me to ignore your posts from here on out, all you have to do is ask. No douchebaggery necessary.

    Although for the record, as regards to "profitable input", I've more than tripled my bankroll since the middle of last October when I started betting again. A lot of people called me crazy, stupid, or laughed at my bets since the very first one, a 25u bet on Mandel Nallo to beat Carrington Banks at +105. To their credit, most of those ridiculing me congratulated me and admitted I wasn't so insane when my plays and analysis worked out.

    You, meanwhile, spew garbage on fighters you later admit not having even watched.

    People are free to decide what is the more "profitable input".

    Also, pro tip: for a guy whose big bets have crashed and burn many times here in spectacular fashion, and who cried like a bitch when he lost big on the first UFC card this year, it's hilarious you're mocking me breaking even when my biggest bet (Griffin) got robbed. I'll remember that when you lose big again.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2019
  20. Monster Meat

    Monster Meat Green Belt

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    For anyone in nj bet stars has jon jones at -700. Nice parlay material considering he’s -1200 everywhere else.
     

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