Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by 2bet, Jan 1, 2019.
Aldo at 2,40 against Moicano, I'll take some of that!
FYI Aldo refused the main event because he wanted a 3-round fight only, so said DW.
Sound smart by Aldo and he's always been more of a 3rounder fighter. No clue who to pick.
Aldo at dog odds is a great bet imo. Got 2U at +150. I really don't get the Moicano hype, lacks power in his strikes and gets by on a good fight IQ and being well rounded but he's not something really special or dangerous. Won't be able to get Aldo down and will be way slower. He'll just look like a worse Holloway vs Aldo so worst case Aldo might slow and lose the third. The only guys who could strike with Aldo were heavy hitters like Chad, McGregor etc. or guys that made him gas out. Moicano is no Holloway and even if Aldo does slow a bit he's still very likely going to take the decision. Wouldn't even be surprised if Aldo finishes him, ever since the second Frankie fight he's got back that killer instinct and given punch bag Ortega had Moicano panic wrestling I don't like Moicano's chances in that scenario.
I totally disagree, Moicano is an excellent kickboxer who utilizes his range advantage very well, did you see how he destroyed Calvin Kattar with leg kicks? I think we have seen now that Aldo deals very badly with a range disadvantage, Aldo has almost become solely a boxer and it is hard for him to get in range vs tall strikers which is why he gasses so fast. I have already placed a large bet on Moicano x 1.75, nfortunately his odds dopped significantly, if he gets close to even I will really unload.
All he did vs Kattar was use leg kicks to cut his movement and Kattar had zero answer for it. Aldo did great vs Max for the first 2 rounds of each fight but gassed because Max never let him reset, countered his leg kicks perfectly with long hard shots. Not to mention Max had a granite chin that let him eat bombs off Aldo to make it long enough for Aldo to gas.
Moicano also lost the striking vs Stephens he only won that fight because he could get takedowns and hold him on his back and Moicano was way too competitive striking Ortega dropping the first round and losing the third and Aldo even as just a boxer is far better than Ortega and as we saw destroyed Stephens. Aldo while fresh is easily the best striker in the division and making him gas isn't half as easy as people make out, Max just fought damn near perfectly and Moicano is no Max.
Just went over footage again, might hedge with Moicano R3 but the skill difference is big. One guy is a decent fighter but another is a P4P great. Aldo should win easily. Moicano just has no power and is worse everywhere. Aldo is the better striker, wrestler, grappler. Moicano may have better cardio but equally he slowed down a lot vs Ortega and panic wrestled. All Aldo's UFC losses are KOs yet Moicano has never even won a fight by KO.
How do you see Aldo losing the fight exactly?
ok we shall see I guess
Agreed on moicano, I don’t really see the hype on him either, don’t see how he has the advantage here
Damien Maia -180
I think this is the swan song for Maia to go out with a win: it’s In Brazil if it goes to a decision and it’s remotely close he’ll win
Paul Felder -150 vs James Vick
I think Felder has the IQ/ technical game to handle Vick’s range, which is his only advantage imo
Myles Jury -180 vs Fili
I'm not so sure about fading Vick too soon. I bet Gaethje to beat him but his main weaknesses are big punchers and takedowns. Felder doesn't really offer either and is far too hittable plus the height disadvantage will make it difficult for him to land any of his usual elbows and strikes. I need to do more tape and really hope Vick gets destroyed but I bet on Trinaldo (who wrecked Felder) against him and don't want to make the mistake again. Feel value will probably end up being in Vicks decision line sadly.
Maia is probably going to be a solid pick too.
Interesting opinion, what sways it for me is felder took a bashing from Perry for 3 rounds, 2 of them with a broken arm and still barely lost a split decision, do you think Vick can do that to him too for 3 rounds with how bad Vick’s weight cut is? I don’t think Vick can knock Felder out; if this goes to decision Felder has the upper hand imo.
IMO Vick completely nuts on Felder, who'd be an anonymous ~#30 action fighter if he wasn't pretty with a nice accent and on the commentary team. He's got two notable wins, Cruickshank and Oliveira, which were both major come-from-behind victories where he was losing fairly clearly. Oli just collapsed after fucking up a deep submission, and Cruickshank was up 2-0 coming into R3 where Felder fell back on his grappling (He doesn't want to grapple with Vick.)
Vick's got chin issues, but I feel like he comfortably bops Felder in the kickboxing. Fairly wide 30-27 or a sub if Felder tries to force a Takedown too rashly. Not to MMA-Maths it, but Trinaldo slapped Felder up and lost pretty clearly to Vick.
Yeah. 3 rounder Aldo's a great spot. I have a weird feeling it goes to a split decision where ALdo comfortably wins R1, edges R2 despite being down a bit in volume and then doesn't do much R3... but he shouldn't be a wide dog here. Even Swanson was landing on Moic.
No I don't think Vick KOs him Felder has a great chin. My views pretty much what Gugabe said. Vick could snatch a sub but it probably goes to a decision more often than not and Vick has good volume and decision winning ability. All 3 of his defeats are by KO and I don't think Felder is the guy to land a big shot like Gaethje or Dariush managed nor does the have the wrestling to exploit Vicks TDD.
Perhaps my hatred of Vick is clouding me here...
Cain is 1.62 v Ngannou. I won't be tying money up for so long on a guy who rarely makes it to the cage but if he makes it he hurts Frankie worse than Stipe did
I can understand your enthusiasm to play Aldo @+money, but this is a trap fight IMO. Aldo is losing his legs fast. He is just not nearly as mobile as he was before, it's obvious. And he tires from 2-3 bursts of energy. He just doesn't have it anymore. Jeremy Stephens was dangerously close to knock him out. If he survived the round who knows if Aldo would've have the power in the next to do anything dangerous, or even to defend himself. Moicano is young and determined to prove himself at 145 as the next big thing. I saw him totally different v Ortega than he was v Stephens, he thought to himself that he will show this bjj kid how to strike and totally underestimated him IMO. There is no other explanation. I bet a ton of money on him to beat Ortega and the first 10 seconds I was shitting bricks - he wasn't fighting anything like he did v Stephens, and I was counting on that safety first approach, Ortega is hitting too hard and is too big of an opportunist to get in a firefight with him, no matter how better your technique you think you got. I think his next fights proved he learned his lesson and I expect him to show his best cards in this fight.
As far as a bet - it's straight up pass to me. Moicano is likely gonna retire Aldo, but bookies have him as the favourite, I don't bet on favourites unless I am 110% sure they gonna win. Aldo has the experience edge, the faster hands and better boxing, he can still win it. Thus I won't have action on this fight. End.
UFC Fight Night 144: Assuncao vs Moraes 2
I like Assuncao in a 5-rounder. He is the better fighter and more rounds should help him win more convincingly and not sweat over the decision. They both are virtually the same as the first fight, nobody made big improvements. Moraes is good with the placement of his big shots. If he can trick you and hit you with one of those it's either a knockout, or you can lose the whole round that you won up until that shot, because it looked that impressive. But other than his nasty kicks and knees, his game is not very tailored on round winning, so I favour Raphael.
Aldo and Moicano we talked about it.
UFC 234: Whittaker vs Gastelum
We all know Whittaker is gonna remain champ. I like Gastelum, but he is not athletic enough to challenge the champ. He is kinda fat (likes to take long vacations, famous for not training hard and sucks at dieting) and he tires if he has to put extra work. And this is 5 rounds vs the best middleweight, you're gonna have to work extra hard to beat him. There is no other way, you can't knock him out, he is too tough - you are not a knock out artist, and your 1-2 with quick in and out movements is not gonna surprise him. You have to have the full vocabulary of strikes and smart use of range and deception to do make something happen. Whittaker is that good. What he is not good is defending the low kick, tho. Still remember Natal of all people making Whittaker limp. The Reaper leans heavy on his front foot, that is why Romero was able to damage his knee in their 1st fight.
Adesanya is gonna school Anderson. I don't know about a knockout. Anderson have bag of tricks to limit the damage he is taking, he is a vet in the game, and he is not that shopworn. And Adesanya is not exactly a heavy hitter. He is precise, tho. Adesanya backers, keep in mind Anderson knows a win here gives him titleshot, so he is going to try to win. Which on other side makes me think he opens himself to being knocked out if he do this... But something tells me Anderson is too old and experienced to go all out to win, he'll try to win, but if he sees that he can't he won't risk to be knocked out and will ride out a decision loss.
I like Montana De La Rosa a lot v Nadia Kassem. I have vague memories of Kassem, but from what I remember she is barely a UFC level fighter. Montana is bigger and more technical then her in all aspects of the fight IMO. Still I think I have to refresh my Kassem memories, though.
UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs Velasques
The money that will pour down Velasques' line will be insane. I think. Yeah, Ngannou dispatched the promising prospect Blaydes in their rematch, but public still remembers Stipe whooping that ass with ease. I think Velasques will go down here like in the first Fox event v JDS. The styles of these fighters match in such ways that favoures Francis. Velasques is workman type fighter, he is in yo face from the oppening bell. This is exactly what Francis wants. His whole style is counter puching. Velasqes didn't faced many counter-punchers. The only comparison to Francis is Kongo. Kongo retreated but was active off his back foot with heavy counters which stunned Cain on more than one occasion. The difference is that Ngannou probably will look to separate with Cain after his stuns him, Congo's instincts to wresle were too strong to overcome and he went back to wrestling mode after every time he had any success with his counters which of course gave the Cain exactly the fight that he wanted.
Vick is better grappler and a striker. His wrestling not so much. My biggest fear is Felder choosing to wrestle Vick, like he went to this option when Cruickshank was beating his ass and managed to get a sub. But even that is a long shot I think because Vick is a lot more dangerous on the ground than Cruickshank, bigger with longer limbs and nasty submission game... On the feet Felder is not throwing in combination and doesn't have quick footwork to reach and hurt Vick. Single punches and angry faces won't do it. If he try to chase Vick and overextend himself he can be meet with a hard counter like Duffy.
Vick is bigger even than Chiesa, he is true welterweight making 155 limit on pure magic. He is tough, tough fight for everyone that can't take him out fast. And Felder's core style tells me he won't be able to.
UFC 235: Woodley vs Usman
I have a sneaking suspicion Tyron is going to be underdog as a champion again. The public loves to lose money on his fights. I have no doubts in my mind Woodley is going to beat Usman. I researched that potential fight in advance, being ready if Usman get to the titlefight. I watched a lot of tape, considered many angles and the only conclusion I came up with is Woodley is gonna beat him, and is pretty likely to be by submission. In UFC he (Tyron) fought guys he either knocked out fast, or who are far better grapplers than him or because of some other thing he could not use his finishing abilities on the ground. I watched Usman's fights from the moment he stepped into the octagon, he has some deficiencies on the ground, he is good wrestler but not so good of a grappler. I can see club and sub situation like with Till. Worst case scenario for Woodley backers will be if this goes the distance. Woodley typically is shaky on the scorecards, too much backing up and doing shit. He won 10 fights by decision and ONLY 3 were non controversial. He had many split decisions, also majority wins and draws. You have to be very inexpirienced or be utter shit in one area of the fight for T.Wood to take a clean decision from you. That's why I am sure a lot of people will argue Usman bet, because they be sure he is not getting finished and if it goes to scorecards Woodley's inactivity is gonna cost him. I don't think this goes to the scorecards at all. Woodley turned a corner in his gameplaning, he knows himself well enough and he researches and even I think he spies on his opponents to gain an advantage (I'm kidding but I'm not). Whatever it takes, baby! Club and sub just like Till, first or second round submission for T.Wood.
Mickey Gall is better everywhere, except his wrestling, but he is more than fine fighting off his back. He won't use his BJJ to hunt for subs that he won't get, tho, he is a lot smarter than that bum White and will use his BJJ to stand up and just finish Sanchez on the feet. Easy work.
Holly Holm has a taylor made opponent for her style for the first time since Ronda Rousey. Aspen Ladd is better than Rousey in the striking department, but she is still very sloppy and relies on toughness and aggression. She doesn't have good technical wrestling game, but she is big and strong for the weightclass and she is aggressive which in women divisions can cover a lot of holes in your game. I don't think Holly is gonna win effortlessly or in an elegant fashion - she had one clean fight (maybe two - with the Marion fight?) and that was her most glorious win vs Ronda. Even Bethe made her look bad, and if Holly didn't land that kick, she really could've lose that abomination of a fight, the rounds were close and uneventful.
I won't be surprised if Holly founds out early that her "world class boxing" isn't cutting it even vs so low quality of striker like Ladd and opting to wrestle yet again, it's gonna be funny it that really happens
Just got him at 2,47. Damn...
he is 2,55 on pinnacle now, I'll take 2u more.
Maybe his price will keep improving but that's good enough for me already, I have 4u on him now
Anyone have a convincing argument for Gastelum beating Whittaker. He gassed vs Jacare has one dimensional boxing on the feet and won't be able to get takedowns. He's got a great chin so I don't see him getting KO'd but thats it. I doubt he KOs Whittaker after he just survived all he did with Romero and it's not like he hits that hard anyway. I'd expect Whittaker to dominate to a decision more often than not.
I think Bobby Knuckles wins but to make a case. Gast has pretty decent boxing + is improving in that area & Rob has had a gluttony of injuries + took a chuck of damage v Romero. I think Rob is better everywhere but yeah, injuries has to be a concern imo
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