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Fox News Poll: Harris tops Trump by two points
Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, as more voters see Harris as the candidate who will help the middle class.
www.foxnews.com
Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, as more voters see Harris as the candidate who will help the middle class, and Hispanics and independents swing in her direction.
The new Fox News national survey finds a 3 percentage-point shift among registered voters in the 2024 presidential contest since mid-August. Trump had a 1-point advantage last month, while Harris is ahead by 2 points today: 50%-48%. For reference, in July, Trump was ahead by 1 point over President Biden. Each of those differences falls within the margin of error.
This marks the first time Harris has hit 50% support, and the trial ballot result is identical among both registered and likely voters. That’s unsurprising given most Americans who are willing to spend time answering a political survey are also probably going to vote.
Lots of info in the article. A few particularly interesting things:
The biggest change since last month is that independents and Hispanics have swung Harris’ way. Hispanics favored Trump by 6 points in August, but they go for Harris by 12 points today. Independents went for Trump by 8 points last month, but now prefer Harris by 12. It is important to remember that estimates among small subgroups are more volatile and tend to swing more than others, and that applies here.
"Our best estimates are that if Trump is within 2 points of Harris nationally then he will likely win in the Electoral College," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. "These data showing a Trump edge in the key counties and battleground states suggest that’s probably right."
