Found a study on how important outweighing your opponent is for success in MMA and Boxing

[Legendary]

Spoiler: Study

Rapid Weight Gain and Weight Differential Predict Competitive Success in 2100 Professional Combat-Sport Athletes​

Rapid Weight Gain and Weight Differential Predict Competitive Success in 2100 Professional Combat-Sport Athletes - PubMed

This analysis of combat-sport athletes indicates that RWG and WD influence competitive success. These findings raise fair-play and safety concerns in these popular sports and may help guide risk-mitigating regulation strategies.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

​

Abstract​

Purpose: Combat-sport athletes commonly undergo rapid weight loss prior to prebout weigh-in and subsequently rapid weight gain (RWG) prior to competition. This investigation aimed to evaluate the effect of RWG and weight differential (WD) between opponents on competitive success.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed using data from professional mixed martial arts (MMA) and boxing events held between 2015 and 2019. The primary outcome was RWG (relative and absolute) between weigh-in and competition stratified by bout winners and losers. Binary logistic regression was used to explore the relationships among bout outcome, RWG, and WD between competitors on the day of their bout.

Results: Among 708 MMA athletes included, winners regained more relative body mass (8.7% [3.7%] vs 7.9% [3.8%], P < .01) than losers. In 1392 included male boxers, winners regained significantly more relative body mass (8.0% [3.0%] vs 6.9% [3.2%], P < .01) than losers. Each percentage body mass increase resulted in a 7% increased likelihood of victory in MMA and a 13% increase in boxing. The relationship between RWG and competitive success remained significant in regional and male international MMA athletes, as well as boxers. WD predicted victory in international mixed martial artists and boxers. WD predicted victory by knockout or technical knockout in international MMA athletes and regional boxers.

Conclusion: This analysis of combat-sport athletes indicates that RWG and WD influence competitive success. These findings raise fair-play and safety concerns in these popular sports and may help guide risk-mitigating regulation strategies.
Keywords: boxing; mixed martial arts.

I was doing some research and found a study that basically shows that fighters who usually win fights are usually the fighter with more body mass and weight differential plays a bigger factor than originally thought. Its interesting to see some actual quantifiable numbers, but to directly quote the study:



"Each percentage body mass increase resulted in a 7% increased likelihood of victory in MMA and a 13% increase in boxing. The relationship between RWG(Rapid Weight Gain) and competitive success remained significant in regional and male international MMA athletes, as well as boxers. WD(Weight Differential) predicted victory in international mixed martial artists and boxers. WD predicted victory by knockout or technical knockout in international MMA athletes and regional boxers."

On average, if two guys fight at 135, one rehydrates to 155 and the other 161, the fighter who regained more weight post weigh in would be 28% more likely to win. It goes to show why fighters cut so much weight, it is such a huge advantage even if its just a few pounds. Its even bigger in boxing which kind of blew my mind as I thought grappling would be more effected by weight differential, but apparently its bigger factor in boxing, at least in this study.

 

[Lord Pyjamas]

A blade tend to fix things though.
But we can't have those or elbows nowadays!

 

[joy2day]

Yes, of course. That point has been debated ad nauseum on Sherdog when posters were trying to justify why it is fair for bigger champs to fight smaller champs, but that is pure foolishness and wishful thinking.

 

[HoiceNJuicy]

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

One of the large arguments against steroids is the combination of how dangerous it is for the person doing it and the unfair advantage it gives them, but I've stood by for a long time on the opinion that extreme weight cutting has much potentially worse adverse effects and arguably gives even more of an advantage.

The only problem is, that's at the more maximums, but the minimum line of weight cutting is a lot more grey than the minimum line of taking PED's, so the latter is just easier to draw a line on and enforce.

 

[Luthien]

This why we invented guns...

 

[Mr.Maelstrom]

"A good big man usually beats a great little man"

- old boxing saying

Sure guys like Pacquiao, RJJ, Usyk often dispelled that notion but look at Loma vs. Rigondeaux for a perfect example of this trend.

Rigo was an undefeated Cuban champion that considered a p4p talent at the time, but when he moved up against Loma, he was styled on and pieced up until he quit on the stool

 

[dipstickjimmy]

One of the large arguments against steroids is the combination of how dangerous it is for the person doing it and the unfair advantage it gives them, but I've stood by for a long time on the opinion that extreme weight cutting has much potentially worse adverse effects and arguably gives even more of an advantage.

The only problem is, that's at the more maximums, but the minimum line of weight cutting is a lot more grey than the minimum line of taking PED's, so the latter is just easier to draw a line on and enforce.

They should eliminate the dehydrating altogether. Its a simple thing to do IMO.

Six weight checks. Fighters must weigh within the range of their weight class. Make each class a 10 lb range. Until the top 3 LHW, HW & SWH.

Fly 136-145
BW 146-155
FW 156-165
LW 166-175
WW 176-185
SWW 186-195
MW 195-205
SMW 206-215
LHW 216-230
HW 230-265
SHW 266 +

Six weight checks, 3 scheduled and 3 random. 6 weeks out, 3 week out and fight night. Plus 3 random checks. Miss weight means 10% fine. Miss all 6 fight is cancelled and you can not fight in this weight class.

Fighters will not fight in a class they can't maintain their weight within because they can't afford to do so.
Fighters will also be able to fight more without having to "Recover" from a weight cut. Even fighters who win with zero damage need time from the weight cuts. Eliminating this will let guys fight 6 times a year if they want.

 

[Bowel-forged Stool]

View attachment 1098016

View attachment 1098017

Poor fellow didn’t realize how pounds per square inch worked, and spent his whole life trying to make his entire body into the head of a hammer..

 

[FlowchartRog]

"A good big man usually beats a great little man"

- old boxing saying

Sure guys like Pacquiao, RJJ, Usyk often dispelled that notion but look at Loma vs. Rigondeaux for a perfect example of this trend.

Rigo was an undefeated Cuban champion that considered a p4p talent at the time, but when he moved up against Loma, he was styled on and pieced up until he quit on the stool

Yep and that old boxing saying is often true. You're right the Usyks and Pacquiaos of the world are very much the exception, not the rule. They are exceptional fighters, ie some of the best ever.

However your Lomachenko - Rigondeaux example isn't the best. Lomachenko was a big favourite to win, and he's also tiny. It was basically a 122 pounder Vs 126 pounder.

Better examples would be Oscar and Tito at middleweight. Or Morales and Barrera at the higher weights. Or tbh, even Lomachenko himself at 135.

 

[muaythaibeast]

They should eliminate the dehydrating altogether. Its a simple thing to do IMO.

Six weight checks. Fighters must weigh within the range of their weight class. Make each class a 10 lb range. Until the top 3 LHW, HW & SWH.

Fly 136-145
BW 146-155
FW 156-165
LW 166-175
WW 176-185
SWW 186-195
MW 195-205
SMW 206-215
LHW 216-230
HW 230-265
SHW 266 +

Six weight checks, 3 scheduled and 3 random. 6 weeks out, 3 week out and fight night. Plus 3 random checks. Miss weight means 10% fine. Miss all 6 fight is cancelled and you can not fight in this weight class.

Fighters will not fight in a class they can't maintain their weight within because they can't afford to do so.
Fighters will also be able to fight more without having to "Recover" from a weight cut. Even fighters who win with zero damage need time from the weight cuts. Eliminating this will let guys fight 6 times a year if they want.

I like it. The idea that the sport is set up for guys to compete at their absolute worst is insane to me.

 

[nonoob]

Iron Mike, a real man - unlike Jon Jones, laughed and said "Hold My Beer."

jk - remember when Jones said he would fight Anybody? ​

No, because coward Jon Jones retired without balls to ever step up to fight a heavyweight.

 

[Mr.Maelstrom]

Yep and that old boxing saying is often true. You're right the Usyks and Pacquiaos of the world are very much the exception, not the rule. They are exceptional fighters, ie some of the best ever.

However your Lomachenko - Rigondeaux example isn't the best. Lomachenko was a big favourite to win, and he's also tiny. It was basically a 122 pounder Vs 126 pounder.

Better examples would be Oscar and Tito at middleweight. Or Morales and Barrera at the higher weights. Or tbh, even Lomachenko himself at 135.

I can agree with that bc yeah they weren't that far apart in weight, and we knew Loma was great already, but Loma made Rigo look smaller and slower as he began to start styling on him
He had rigo ducking for cover to the point that he just started doing matador moves on him, I didn't expect that type of one sided beat down.

Bivol Canelo could also apply, but Bivol is pretty great in his own right

 

[GolovKing]

Yep and that old boxing saying is often true. You're right the Usyks and Pacquiaos of the world are very much the exception, not the rule. They are exceptional fighters, ie some of the best ever.

However your Lomachenko - Rigondeaux example isn't the best. Lomachenko was a big favourite to win, and he's also tiny. It was basically a 122 pounder Vs 126 pounder.

Better examples would be Oscar and Tito at middleweight. Or Morales and Barrera at the higher weights. Or tbh, even Lomachenko himself at 135.

Rigo was a natural 118 pounder he was already small for 122 and loma was decent sized guy at 126 and 130, he just started looking really small when he got to 135. So yes loma was favored to win but it was because he had a big size as advantage. People weren't really looking at him and thinking he was just a much greater boxer than rigo. Remember each pound is more substantial at the lower weights than it is the higher weights because it's a bigger percentage of their overall mass

 

[FlowchartRog]

Rigo was a natural 118 pounder he was already small for 122 and loma was decent sized guy at 126 and 130, he just started looking really small when he got to 135. So yes loma was favored to win but it was because he had a big size as advantage. People weren't really looking at him and thinking he was just a much greater boxer than rigo. Remember each pound is more substantial at the lower weights than it is the higher weights because it's a bigger percentage of their overall mass

Gondo turned pro at 122. He looked tiny, but he was a fairly muscled 122 pounder, not a scrawny little runt.

Lomachenko has the frame/build of a 126 pounder at best. Not a "decent sized guy" at all. He's very small, he looked undersized at 130, not just 135. He moved up for the sake of it, not because he couldn't make 126.

The consensus at the time was that Lomachenko was bigger AND better.

 

[FlowchartRog]

I can agree with that bc yeah they weren't that far apart in weight, and we knew Loma was great already, but Loma made Rigo look smaller and slower as he began to start styling on him
He had rigo ducking for cover to the point that he just started doing matador moves on him, I didn't expect that type of one sided beat down.

Bivol Canelo could also apply, but Bivol is pretty great in his own right

To be fair, me neither. I expected Chenko to win for sure, but I thought Gondo was plenty good enough that even if a bit undersized, it would be competitive. But yeah you're right, it was a 1 sided beatdown.

Good catch on Bivol too. You're right at a glance it looked like a classic example of an elite fighter moving up 1 division too far. 100% that is how it seemed. But there may be more than meets the eye, for starters Canelo seems to have slowed down, hasn't really looked the same since. Plus Bivol is absolutely elite, and I knew it before that fight. Was shocked Canelo even took the Bivol fight tbh, he was feeling himself a bit too much imo. Put it this way, even if they were the same natural size, it's likely Bivol wins

Having said that, it's a good example and definitely counts. It kind of looked like Canelo couldn't do anything, as Bivol was just too big.

 

[Mr.Maelstrom]

To be fair, me neither. I expected Chenko to win for sure, but I thought Gondo was plenty good enough that even if a bit undersized, it would be competitive. But yeah you're right, it was a 1 sided beatdown.

Good catch on Bivol too. You're right at a glance it looked like a classic example of an elite fighter moving up 1 division too far. 100% that is how it seemed. But there may be more than meets the eye, for starters Canelo seems to have slowed down, hasn't really looked the same since that fight. Plus Bivol is absolutely elite, and I knew it before that fight. Was shocked Canelo even took that fight tbh, he was feeling himself a bit too much imo. Put it this way, even if they were the same natural size, it's likely Bivol wins

Having said that, it's a good example and definitely counts. It kind of looked like Canelo couldn't do anything, as Bivol was just too big.

Yeah in hindsight, BJS was the last time we saw Canelo be Canelo, imo. Every fight since, he's just been Saúl Alvarez at best. Hope the Bud fight delivers at least

 

[FlowchartRog]

Yeah in hindsight, BJS was the last time we saw Canelo be Canelo, imo. Every fight since, he's just been Saúl Alvarez at best. Hope the Bud fight delivers at least

Exactly right. He seemed to peak in 2021, he was on fire then. Sharp and fast and accurate, with good defence.

Since then he's looked kind of slow and laboured, missing more than usual, with worse defence. Hasn't looked particularly impressive in any fight since tbh.

That is the wildcard yeah, for the Crawford fight, how much Canelo has left. Ironically he's younger than Crawford, but Crawford is definitely the fresher fighter.

Against the 2021 Canelo, Crawford would have no realistic chance. Against this one? He has a chance, as long as he can take the odd whallop

 

[Dr Fong]

And yet if you spend time on Shitdog, you will learn that Makhachev is ducking a former 135 pounder in order to fight a former 185 pounder.

 

[Prazeres]

Kinda surprised it has a bigger incident on boxing, I would have though that a weight adventage would be more usefull in MMA due to grappling.