Fluke victories = No such thing.

[IIIIIIII]

That's like saying a full-court shot isn't a fluke because someone "aimed"

Fluke has nothing to do with intent as someone else pointed out. It's the rate at which an action will occur. You will miss far more full court shots than you make. Even if you made on your first try. It's still a fluke.

People can't seem to grasp the concept of low probability in this thread.

post #79.

 

[GroundNPouter]

post #79.

False equivalency.

 

[Rhood]

Dong Hyun Kim vs Demian Maia = Obvious fluke victory

 

[mraa1]

what about silva okami 1?

Wasn't a fluke, Silva knew the rules but he disregarded them like a badass to make a statement about stupid rules in MMA.

 

[rl4090526]

I believe there is such thing though.... KZ vs Roop head kick ko is never gonna happen again if they fight. those are luck

 

[FedorandBjpenn]

I mean this fight is the definition of a "fluke"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd8Cbco63XE

fast forward to 3:05 for KO

 

[mawashi geri**]

Dong Hyun Kim vs Demian Maia = Obvious fluke victory

NOPE. TD's are meant to do damage and when done correctly they can end a fight. Happens all the time.

I believe there is such thing though.... KZ vs Roop head kick ko is never gonna happen again if they fight. those are luck

This is a matter of opinion based off on nothing. How many times does the exact thing happen in rematches? Most arent stupid enough to make the same mistake twice.

I mean this fight is the definition of a "fluke"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd8Cbco63XE

fast forward to 3:05 for KO

nope this is the result of standing and trading with a guy who has power.

 

[MCS]

Flukes are something that no one expects to happen ever again - f.e. that TK would beat Fedor in a rematch, that Takase would beat Anderson again. In instances that don't fit that part, they're often based on a "feeling", not on reality. They have little to do with reason, but a lot to do with emotion - flukes are rare upsets that have little to do with status or match-ups. They just "happen" on one night.

JDS' win wasn't a fluke. He stops people constantly and quickly, Cain gets hit a lot. Duffee/Russow is different, because the KO happened after a long domination and Russow isn't known for stopping people like JDS is.

All signs point to a Duffee victory in a rematch, where it's not clear to me who would win between Cain and JDS in a rubber match. Cain could've finished JDS in the first round, JDS was badly hurt and didn't get his wits back. Cain didn't recover in their first fight. If JDS wouldn't have, would you see the fight any different?

 

[Soul Slasher**]

Serra vs. GSP 1 was a fluke. GSP wins that fight 9 out of 10 times. We just saw the 1 out of 10 fight.

It was a fluke to an untrained idiot.

Serra won because he had the perfect gameplan. Plain and simple.

The 9 out of ten times BS is pathetic excuse making that just deals with a hypothetical. Not saying it , not isn't true but the only thing matters is what happened in the fight what may happened in your imaginary world.

 

[Shaungotti]

Flukes happen in all walks of life and in all sports.

 

[bubkusjones]

It was a fluke to an untrained idiot.

Serra won because he had the perfect gameplan. Plain and simple.

It was the perfect gameplan for a guy with 0 wins via strikes to knock out a guy who's never lost via strikes? Next you're going to tell me that Liz Carmouche's gameplan is to arm-bar Ronda, right? She'll never see it coming! HAHAHA!

Right, so every time that the absolute least likely scenario happens, it's the "perfect gameplan"??

Yeah, I'm going to go out and call bullshit on that.

 

[DylanQ]

If someone throws a punch with bad intentions and connects, the person goes down, what's so flukey about that?

 

[DylanQ]

JJ versus Hamill is a fluke that will never happen again.

How was that a fluke? JJ did something illegal he should of known about as a professional fighter in the UFC. Nothing flukey about it considering the amount of times he threw those elbows.

 

[Toxxus]

Fluke's absolutely do occur. I KO'd my kickboxing instructor exactly once out of 4+ years of training. I hadn't landed that right hook in the previous 4 years and never landed it again. It was the very definition of a lucky shot.

GSP vs. Serra is similar. If they fought 100 times I'd predict Serra losing at least 95 of those. He got lucky and his stellar career after losing to GSP all but proves it.

JDS is a great striker but crushing your opponent in the first 60 seconds of the match causes a problem. There hasn't been enough fight time (sampling) to tell if that was a statistical anomaly or tremendous skill.

If I win a lottery it's pretty ridiculous to claim I'm just amazing at buying tickets and it wasn't a fluke.

I couldn't say whether JDS' win over Cain in the first match was a fluke or not. He had gone through numerous opponents and had several KOs which would indicate it was a skill shot, but Cain had never lost so, in my mind, it was inconclusive.

In the rematch it was clear that Cain's wrestling and cardio were superior as we got to see a very large number of wrestling attempts. We also got to see that JDS has very good TDD (thwarted 67% of the takedown attempts) and tremendous ability to soak damage.

Can't wait to see the rematch and see how it plays out.

 

[MCS]

Flukes happen in all walks of life and in all sports.

True, but they seem to happen on pretty much every card according to this forum. If it's convenient. Fight history has little to do with it, it's more about favoritism.

 

[bubkusjones]

If someone throws a punch with bad intentions and connects, the person goes down, what's so flukey about that?

Who's throwing the punch and who are they punching?

If it's Floyd Mayweather fighting me, it's not a fluke, because he's one of the worlds greatest boxers and I'm a noob.


If I'm the one knocking out Floyd, it's a fluke, because Floyd's gone through 43 professional boxers, the last dozen or so being world champions who have proven knock out power without coming close to being knocked out and I'm a practically untrained, inexperienced noob who has no business being in the same gym as Mayweather, let alone stepping in the ring with him.

True, but they seem to happen on pretty much every card according to this forum. If it's convenient. Fight history has little to do with it, it's more about favoritism.

Yeah, some people get a little too overzealous with use of the term

 

[Aaron Perls]

There's a difference between a "fluke" and a low probability outcome.

If something is 95% likey (say Cain beating JDS), JDS winning is not a fluke, it's an illustration of a low probability outcome. If we saw 20 fights, we'd expect him to win one of them, but if he won more, it would simply mean we live in a world where the low probability outcome was still the outcome.

 

[MMApick**]

ok, but there are victories that are very unlikely to be repeated

Which is the definition of a fluke...

Cain's mobility was obviously affected, as well as his mental state knowing this.

It's unlikely to be repeated because Cain probably won't fight injured again.

Many fights we don't know if they are fluke. But Cain proved this one. He also walked straight through JDS' bombs this time around.

 

[Saskatoonmike**]

If someone throws a punch with bad intentions and connects, the person goes down, what's so flukey about that?

PROBABILITY. learn what the word means.

 

[van1ty]

According to the OP if I hit five hole in one's in a row it's not a fluke because I intended to hit hole in one's.