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Sergei Spivac vs Jailton Almeida – I'm absolutely convinced Spivac would take this even if he ends up taking Lewis' #7 spot. I can't imagine Spivac being particularly precious about rankings when he likes to be so active. We all know Almeida is a serious threat at heavyweight, but Spivac might just have the game to negate his monstrous ground and pound – and gain a ton of kudos for doing so! I think a win here for Spivac is worth more than the current rankings suggest, and he could soon find himself locking horns with the top 4.
Derrick Lewis vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima – Lewis needs a step down in the worst way, and since Dana White is intent on keeping him on the roster, they could do worse than putting him against Marcos Rogerio. The Brazilian has been picking off some of the weaker prey in the heavyweight division prior to a career-best win over Andrei Arlovski, but there's no getting away from the fact Arlovski is battle-worn by this point. Still, Marcos hits hard and is a solid finisher, without being an elite heavyweight. If Lewis can't win this, what value does he still hold in the UFC? At the same time, I wouldn't exactly say he's getting a 'can', so he needs to earn it here.
Devin Clark vs Ihor Poteiria – Well, well, well, Devin Clark pulls off another upset, and keeps his faint hopes of breaking into the rankings alive. Clark has generally lost to beasts (Blachowicz, Spann, Smith & Murzakanov, for example), and holds a couple of credible wins (Menfield & Jung), but there's still a lot of work to do. Give him the unpopular Poteiria, who raised the ire of MMA fans by posing after his win over the legendary Shogun Rua. Clark likely comes in a heavy favourite, which will please some.
Da Un Jung vs Nicolae Negumereanu – The Romanian Negu had a four fight win streak snapped by Carlos Ulberg, but take nothing away from the tough striker, he's going to be an issue for most of the UFC preliminary-level light heavyweights. That includes Da Un Jung, who himself was 4-0-1 before consecutive defeats to Dustin Jacoby and now Devin Clark. Both have very similar records, and share a win over a common opponent in Kennedy Nzechukwu, making for what I feel would be a difficult fight to call!
Marcin Tybura vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik – This one has fallen through twice before, but it would still likely see #10 face #9, and both raise relevant questions of the other – Tybura has shown a weakness to heavy-handed strikers in the past, while Jairzinho is hardly immune to being stifled. Tybura has quietly racked up an impressive record, but if Jairzinho is aggressive, he might just be able to take him out. Winner looks to move on up the rankings.
Blagoy Ivanov vs Ilir Latifi – Blagoy seems to only fight once a year, making these kinds of predictions particularly difficult, but another guy who fights equally infrequently is Ilir Latifi. These two could theoretically duke it out for the #15 ranking, but I imagine by the time it comes round Blagoy has already lost it. Still, it makes sense – these two are roughly the same level, speed, mileage – might not be the most exciting fight on paper, but these two decision machines are what they are. Believe it or not, it would actually be a rematch of a No Contest fought out on the Bulgarian regional scene.
Doo Ho Choi vs Luis Saldana – Time to move on for Choi after a disappointing comeback in which a deducted point cost him the win. He's still very much in the 'Last Chance Saloon', therefore, and someone like Luis Saldana could await him. Saldana was last seen in a terrible, high altitude draw with Sean Woodson, and needs an improved outing ASAP. Choi can't afford to lose, but if Saldana disappoints again, his head could be on the chopping board as well!
Kyle Nelson vs Dan Argueta – I wouldn't be shocked if Nelson got cut given that many (including Dana) clearly feel Choi won that fight and deserved the 'W'. That in turn means Nelson deserved the 'L', but if he does stay on the roster for one more, give him Dan Argueta, who has faced polar opposites in terms of experience when he fought Damon Jackson followed by debutant Nick Aguirre – time for something in the middle, and that's Kyle Nelson. Should be a fun scrap.
Adam Fugitt vs Orion Cosce – It's difficult to know where to pitch the pair of these fighters, with relatively low experience levels and 1-1 UFC records. Both beat unseasoned opposition (Blood Diamond for Orion) to get on the right path, and I think it makes a lot of sense to pit them against each other and see who comes out with the winning streak.
Yusaku Kinoshita vs Blood Diamond – Speaking of Blood Diamond, if he's still intent on making it in the UFC, this is probably his last ever chance. Being a kickboxer simply isn't enough in the UFC, and Kinoshita is unlikely to engage to settle for a striking bout, meaning Blood Diamond displays some improvements, or he goes home with a whimper.
Anshul Jubli vs Nick Fiore – Honestly, I'm not expecting Jubli to work out well in the UFC, but who knows? Sometimes someone comes along and surprises everyone. Fiore is a top level grappler, so if Jubli can maul him with G'n'P, who knows, maybe he actually can go far. That's unlikely, though, and so this could be a useful exhibition for Fiore to showcase his skills after a monstrously tough UFC debut against Mateusz Rebecki.
Jeong Yeong Lee vs Chase Hooper – As the most experienced Road to UFC Finals winner, Lee gets a relatively credible opponent in the talented grappler Chase Hooper – a young man with severe deficiencies on the feet, but who is good enough at what he does to be 3-3 in the UFC. I honestly think it's a fair fight, and could be fun if Lee engages (or is forced to engage) on the ground.
Rinya Nakamura vs Fernie Garcia – Rinya rinsed his opponent in the Road to UFC Finals, and has thus far kept his elite wrestling in his back pocket. I'm reserving opinion on the hell-for-leather, wild man striking offence, which is always a risky strategy – let's see how he does against 0-2 Fernie Garcia, a young man who will be more than willing to stand and bang in my opinion. Another flash KO of a tough kid like Fernie and Rinya's stock will just keep rising.
Hyun Sung Park vs Carlos Candelario – Candelario is 'that guy' who got a UFC contract despite losing on DWCS, and he's duly lost both of his first UFC fights in addition. By no means is he hopeless, but it's a fact of life that he's now the acid test for intriguing prospects who are going to be tough to gauge. Hyun Sung Park looked hesitant in his Road to UFC Finals bout, and Candelario could potentially capitalise on that – unless he finds himself out-grappled again. Let's use this as a range-finder for Park.
Jun Yong Park vs Bruno Silva – Silva has really dropped off after his defeat to now-champion Alex Pereira, as he looked a shadow of his former self against GM3. That said, he's clearly not a bum or anything, and has fight-ending power and brutal striking. 'The Iron Turtle' makes sense as an opponent with a somewhat mediocre 6-2 UFC record. Park is hard to beat, and a very solid opponent, but if he beats Silva it's probably a wrap for the Brazilian. Both benefit from a win here for very different reasons.
Denis Tiuliulin vs Tresean Gore – Denis is, without question, one of the most puzzling pick ups in recent UFC history. No DWCS background, never entered TUF, wasn't on a good run of form, didn't have a particularly good record, and doesn't have any particularly impressive wins even accounting for an old, out of shape Juscelino Ferreira. He's still better than Jamie Pickett, but unfortunately all I see in his future is one more defeat that acts as a stepping stone for another fighter. Give him Tresean Gore. Gore needs cage time and experience, and if he can't beat Tiuliulin it would only be fair to accrue it back on the regionals.
Tatsuro Taira vs Charles Johnson – Time to take the kid gloves off with Taira after another impressive win – but that's 3 fights in a row competing at a similarly low level. Charles Johnson may have been used by a stepping stone by the surging young prospect Muhammad Mokaev, but he's recorded back-to-back wins and thwarted a comeback by Jimmy Flick last time out. Whether he actually deserved to beat Zhumagulov is now a matter of personal opinion (he didn't, IMO), but he's still got some good scalps on his record with Mota accounted for in LFA. Taira will be a decent favourite, but it's a higher level opponent with more UFC experience, and someone who offers Taira a different look than just an 'overmatched grappler'.
Jesus Aguilar vs JP Buys – JP still appears to be on the UFC roster as far as I can tell, and that opens him up to fights like this against rookies looking for their first main roster win. Aguilar had a tough task against Taira, but his DWCS win over Erisson Ferreira saw him show some potential. Can he out-grapple the struggling South African wrestler?
Derrick Lewis vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima – Lewis needs a step down in the worst way, and since Dana White is intent on keeping him on the roster, they could do worse than putting him against Marcos Rogerio. The Brazilian has been picking off some of the weaker prey in the heavyweight division prior to a career-best win over Andrei Arlovski, but there's no getting away from the fact Arlovski is battle-worn by this point. Still, Marcos hits hard and is a solid finisher, without being an elite heavyweight. If Lewis can't win this, what value does he still hold in the UFC? At the same time, I wouldn't exactly say he's getting a 'can', so he needs to earn it here.
Devin Clark vs Ihor Poteiria – Well, well, well, Devin Clark pulls off another upset, and keeps his faint hopes of breaking into the rankings alive. Clark has generally lost to beasts (Blachowicz, Spann, Smith & Murzakanov, for example), and holds a couple of credible wins (Menfield & Jung), but there's still a lot of work to do. Give him the unpopular Poteiria, who raised the ire of MMA fans by posing after his win over the legendary Shogun Rua. Clark likely comes in a heavy favourite, which will please some.
Da Un Jung vs Nicolae Negumereanu – The Romanian Negu had a four fight win streak snapped by Carlos Ulberg, but take nothing away from the tough striker, he's going to be an issue for most of the UFC preliminary-level light heavyweights. That includes Da Un Jung, who himself was 4-0-1 before consecutive defeats to Dustin Jacoby and now Devin Clark. Both have very similar records, and share a win over a common opponent in Kennedy Nzechukwu, making for what I feel would be a difficult fight to call!
Marcin Tybura vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik – This one has fallen through twice before, but it would still likely see #10 face #9, and both raise relevant questions of the other – Tybura has shown a weakness to heavy-handed strikers in the past, while Jairzinho is hardly immune to being stifled. Tybura has quietly racked up an impressive record, but if Jairzinho is aggressive, he might just be able to take him out. Winner looks to move on up the rankings.
Blagoy Ivanov vs Ilir Latifi – Blagoy seems to only fight once a year, making these kinds of predictions particularly difficult, but another guy who fights equally infrequently is Ilir Latifi. These two could theoretically duke it out for the #15 ranking, but I imagine by the time it comes round Blagoy has already lost it. Still, it makes sense – these two are roughly the same level, speed, mileage – might not be the most exciting fight on paper, but these two decision machines are what they are. Believe it or not, it would actually be a rematch of a No Contest fought out on the Bulgarian regional scene.
Doo Ho Choi vs Luis Saldana – Time to move on for Choi after a disappointing comeback in which a deducted point cost him the win. He's still very much in the 'Last Chance Saloon', therefore, and someone like Luis Saldana could await him. Saldana was last seen in a terrible, high altitude draw with Sean Woodson, and needs an improved outing ASAP. Choi can't afford to lose, but if Saldana disappoints again, his head could be on the chopping board as well!
Kyle Nelson vs Dan Argueta – I wouldn't be shocked if Nelson got cut given that many (including Dana) clearly feel Choi won that fight and deserved the 'W'. That in turn means Nelson deserved the 'L', but if he does stay on the roster for one more, give him Dan Argueta, who has faced polar opposites in terms of experience when he fought Damon Jackson followed by debutant Nick Aguirre – time for something in the middle, and that's Kyle Nelson. Should be a fun scrap.
Adam Fugitt vs Orion Cosce – It's difficult to know where to pitch the pair of these fighters, with relatively low experience levels and 1-1 UFC records. Both beat unseasoned opposition (Blood Diamond for Orion) to get on the right path, and I think it makes a lot of sense to pit them against each other and see who comes out with the winning streak.
Yusaku Kinoshita vs Blood Diamond – Speaking of Blood Diamond, if he's still intent on making it in the UFC, this is probably his last ever chance. Being a kickboxer simply isn't enough in the UFC, and Kinoshita is unlikely to engage to settle for a striking bout, meaning Blood Diamond displays some improvements, or he goes home with a whimper.
Anshul Jubli vs Nick Fiore – Honestly, I'm not expecting Jubli to work out well in the UFC, but who knows? Sometimes someone comes along and surprises everyone. Fiore is a top level grappler, so if Jubli can maul him with G'n'P, who knows, maybe he actually can go far. That's unlikely, though, and so this could be a useful exhibition for Fiore to showcase his skills after a monstrously tough UFC debut against Mateusz Rebecki.
Jeong Yeong Lee vs Chase Hooper – As the most experienced Road to UFC Finals winner, Lee gets a relatively credible opponent in the talented grappler Chase Hooper – a young man with severe deficiencies on the feet, but who is good enough at what he does to be 3-3 in the UFC. I honestly think it's a fair fight, and could be fun if Lee engages (or is forced to engage) on the ground.
Rinya Nakamura vs Fernie Garcia – Rinya rinsed his opponent in the Road to UFC Finals, and has thus far kept his elite wrestling in his back pocket. I'm reserving opinion on the hell-for-leather, wild man striking offence, which is always a risky strategy – let's see how he does against 0-2 Fernie Garcia, a young man who will be more than willing to stand and bang in my opinion. Another flash KO of a tough kid like Fernie and Rinya's stock will just keep rising.
Hyun Sung Park vs Carlos Candelario – Candelario is 'that guy' who got a UFC contract despite losing on DWCS, and he's duly lost both of his first UFC fights in addition. By no means is he hopeless, but it's a fact of life that he's now the acid test for intriguing prospects who are going to be tough to gauge. Hyun Sung Park looked hesitant in his Road to UFC Finals bout, and Candelario could potentially capitalise on that – unless he finds himself out-grappled again. Let's use this as a range-finder for Park.
Jun Yong Park vs Bruno Silva – Silva has really dropped off after his defeat to now-champion Alex Pereira, as he looked a shadow of his former self against GM3. That said, he's clearly not a bum or anything, and has fight-ending power and brutal striking. 'The Iron Turtle' makes sense as an opponent with a somewhat mediocre 6-2 UFC record. Park is hard to beat, and a very solid opponent, but if he beats Silva it's probably a wrap for the Brazilian. Both benefit from a win here for very different reasons.
Denis Tiuliulin vs Tresean Gore – Denis is, without question, one of the most puzzling pick ups in recent UFC history. No DWCS background, never entered TUF, wasn't on a good run of form, didn't have a particularly good record, and doesn't have any particularly impressive wins even accounting for an old, out of shape Juscelino Ferreira. He's still better than Jamie Pickett, but unfortunately all I see in his future is one more defeat that acts as a stepping stone for another fighter. Give him Tresean Gore. Gore needs cage time and experience, and if he can't beat Tiuliulin it would only be fair to accrue it back on the regionals.
Tatsuro Taira vs Charles Johnson – Time to take the kid gloves off with Taira after another impressive win – but that's 3 fights in a row competing at a similarly low level. Charles Johnson may have been used by a stepping stone by the surging young prospect Muhammad Mokaev, but he's recorded back-to-back wins and thwarted a comeback by Jimmy Flick last time out. Whether he actually deserved to beat Zhumagulov is now a matter of personal opinion (he didn't, IMO), but he's still got some good scalps on his record with Mota accounted for in LFA. Taira will be a decent favourite, but it's a higher level opponent with more UFC experience, and someone who offers Taira a different look than just an 'overmatched grappler'.
Jesus Aguilar vs JP Buys – JP still appears to be on the UFC roster as far as I can tell, and that opens him up to fights like this against rookies looking for their first main roster win. Aguilar had a tough task against Taira, but his DWCS win over Erisson Ferreira saw him show some potential. Can he out-grapple the struggling South African wrestler?
