Explaining Aldo-Conor betting odds to dummies

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by makavelihhh, Jan 19, 2015.

  1. makavelihhh

    makavelihhh Orange Belt

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    Betting houses know that a lot more people will bet on Conor than on Aldo, so they even the odds.

    It's so basic that is surprising how much people do not get it.
     
  2. Floki

    Floki Blue Belt

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    Tell us how stock prices work too!!
     
  3. spid3yo

    spid3yo Guest

    It's not about how good a fighter is, it's about what will make the house the most money.
     
  4. Degen Gambler

    Degen Gambler Silver Belt

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    Yes of course they have to anticipate how Conor's hype will effect the betting public's behavior but so far it seems the money is actually coming in on Aldo so they may have over done it a bit.
     
  5. warriorscommando

    warriorscommando I will always protect you

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    Betters set the lines.
     
  6. iwhoopedbatman

    iwhoopedbatman Fox Hunter Extraordinaire

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    They still have Aldo as the favorite to open, which means they expect more money on him. If the underdog gets more money laid on them and wins, the house loses money. If more money comes in on Conor, he'll become the favorite.
     
  7. Meathead Jock

    Meathead Jock WAR ASKREN

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    Oh I get it, the general public is the type to put money on McGregor however, Vegas also realizes there are the BIG TIMERS who see something like this and drop 5 to 6 figures on these kind of bets. Its surprising to me that they have faith in the general public being able to generate enough money to counter balance it.
     
  8. dabausplaya

    dabausplaya Brown Belt

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    Conor will most likely lose, so the house would be smart to make Conor as appealing a bet as possible.
     
  9. OldWrestler

    OldWrestler Orange Belt

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    Thank you. The line is set when the fight is announced based on statistical data. Then, it is adjusted based on the volume bet on either fighter. The line moves to offset potential losses. The desired outcome to offset potential loss.
     
  10. Davelh

    Davelh Blue Belt

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    and to hopefully add something to your comments-the goal for the house is to line themselves up so that no matter who wins, they will have to pay out approximately the same amount of money. Doing this ensures that they'll make money/break even (or at least not lose a lot of it) because of the spreads. As you mentioned the line will move as more money comes on a certain fighter...the house doesn't usually lose much but can lose big if they accept a large last minute bet on one side or the other
     
  11. ThePewp

    ThePewp Green Belt

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    Exactly, and I have Aldo by domination. Conor might get a few good strikes in the first, but Aldo wrecks him.

    Vegas doesn't care who wins a given fight, they just want to set the odds in a way that either winner profits the house. A better can likewise do some math and bet on both fighters at different numbers to make a small amount either winner the same way. Most of the time, the better doesn't have enough money to get a lot of profit this way, and this is one of the reasons for limits on how much you can bet.
     
  12. rooku

    rooku Purple Belt

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    They also limit large bets to around $30,000 at most places. They don't want a single huge bet at a certain limit to swing the numbers hard. Imagine if 100 of us bet $1000 each. And then one guy comes in and bets $100,000. He now has bet half of the money they've take in, and the house will have a hard time balancing the books on that one.

    In the end, just understand that when betting on fights, you are betting based on public perception. If you think you know better than the general betting public (including the very-well informed big money), then you place your bets when you see odds that satisfy you. A fighter is at -200 when you believe it should be closer to -350? Make that bet, even if you don't stand to gain very much. It's net positive if you're right about the math.
    Likewise in the other direction. The line shows +600 on an underdog and you think it will be a much closer fight, or the guy has a punchers chance that shouldn't be taken lightly? Maybe you think it's more accurately a +300. You should put your money down, knowing that you are more likely than not to lose it, just because if it does hit, it pays much better than your expected odds.
     
  13. tenniswhiz

    tenniswhiz Steel Belt

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    I know who Conor is, but can you tell me a little more about this Aldo guy?
     
  14. griek1

    griek1 Orange Belt

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    TS fails at understanding odds. Only the starting line is man-manipulated. After that, a computer sets the odds real time based on rather simple algorithms, making sure the house gets profit "x".
     

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