Examples of MMAth not working

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by sssleeper, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. sssleeper Blue Belt

    Joined:
    May 6, 2008
    Messages:
    941
    Likes Received:
    221
    Location:
    Sydney!
    Yesterday RDA was convincingly beaten by Chiesa. However, Chiesa has been beaten by Pettis and Kevin Lee; guys who RDA beat.

    I know age, weightclasses, styles, etc play into it but what are some other good examples of MMAth not working? I particularly like instances when the fights aren't even close. Another example is Nate getting destroyed by Benson Henderson, who has been beaten twice by Pettis who was completely outworked by Nate.
     
  2. 20falarVerdades Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    12,045
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    MMA math probably works better in reverse due to the fact that styles make matches
     
  3. billharford 181 Likes

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2013
    Messages:
    6,933
    Likes Received:
    2
    I'm going to go out on a limb and say guys who beat Matt Hamill can't actually beat Jon Jones
     
  4. Vincentsky Green Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2018
    Messages:
    1,491
    Likes Received:
    7
    Game plan and studying tape over time helps
     
  5. Sweater of AV Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2018
    Messages:
    15,998
    Likes Received:
    12,092
    Saku > Vitor > Wandy > Saku
     
  6. SeattleFightFan Steel Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2004
    Messages:
    30,840
    Likes Received:
    1,744
    So many.

    Instead, let's talk macro. Here's one analysis:

    I ran the analysis with all MMA bouts that we have on record (over 68,000). So how often does A beat C? In the end, A prevailed over C at a 71% success rate (2988 of 4210).

    When all three bouts occur within a 3 year window, the success rate improves to 72.3% (2144 of 2967).

    Within a 2 year window, 73% (1590 of 2179).
    • 18 months, 74.2% (1211 of 1633).
    • 12 months, 75.2% (732 of 974).
    • 9 months, 77.5% (488 of 630).
    • 6 months, 80.9% (262 of 324).
    • 3 months, 85.6% (77 of 90).
    Take it for what it's worth. From http://forum.mmajunkie.com/forum/threads/mma-math.9207/.
     
  7. aerius Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2006
    Messages:
    10,095
    Likes Received:
    1,899
    Location:
    YYZ
    Wandy > Jardine > Chuck > Wandy

    Joanna > Karolina, Esparza, Andrade, Tecia > Rose > Joanna
     
  8. RockyLockridge Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2013
    Messages:
    12,867
    Likes Received:
    2,001
    Yeah, joanna is pretty much the goat with 1 bad matchup
     
  9. Doctor Lenovo Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2019
    Messages:
    4,186
    Likes Received:
    1,371
    Too many to count.
     
  10. Pancake Sprawl WAR IGOR!!!11

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2003
    Messages:
    13,611
    Likes Received:
    2,364
    Location:
    Mutating ...
    Foreman > Frazier >Ali > Foreman

    Foreman > Norton > Ali > Foreman

    Foreman > Moorer > Holyfield > Foreman
     
  11. felmmando Red Belt

    Joined:
    May 9, 2010
    Messages:
    8,461
    Likes Received:
    468
    Holm > Rousey > Tate > Holm

    Not such a blatant example, since both lost, but Frankie Edgar did better against Max Holloway than Jose Aldo, who beat Edgar.

    These are just off the top of my head; the cases are legion.
     
  12. Nandez Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2019
    Messages:
    831
    Likes Received:
    1,042
    Grass is green. Water is wet.
     
  13. sssleeper Blue Belt

    Joined:
    May 6, 2008
    Messages:
    941
    Likes Received:
    221
    Location:
    Sydney!
    Yeah totally. Awesome contribution to the topic of discussion.
     
  14. old school 2 Black Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2009
    Messages:
    5,885
    Likes Received:
    75
    Location:
    Beverly Hills, Cali
    MMA math is generally just logic. If a fighter has destroyed every fighter they have ever faced they should beat a fighter that hasn’t if they are fighting similar competition.
     
  15. esdoornblad How soon is now?

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2005
    Messages:
    2,796
    Likes Received:
    8
    Location:
    San Diego
    How did you access the database?
     
  16. El Fernas Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2014
    Messages:
    13,088
    Likes Received:
    1,420
    Location:
    Guadalajara, Mexico
    Mmath doesnt play well with age, RDA that beat Pettis would had beaten Chiesa, might sound like this week's prediction, but its fair to say that was a different RDA.
     
  17. tekkenfan Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2017
    Messages:
    6,801
    Likes Received:
    219
    cause un trained people dont realize size really does matter when skill levels are somewhat close rda will never be a top 170 he is to small its to easy to grind on a guy like that their is a reason guys cut weight rda always gets wrestle fuked
     
  18. dipstickjimmy Red Belt

    Joined:
    May 17, 2009
    Messages:
    7,559
    Likes Received:
    920
    MMA is like Rock, Paper, Scissors. The true GREATS can beat all styles while the very good lose to those who are very good at something they are not.

    It is what makes GSP & Fedor Goats. They can blast thru opponents, put extended beat downs on opponents and even come back from adversity against opponents. Jon is GOAT worthy but has a pinch of salt in an Olympic Sized Pool against him IMO.
     
  19. SeattleFightFan Steel Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2004
    Messages:
    30,840
    Likes Received:
    1,744
    Wasn't me. I just found the post, years ago. And share it every now and again.

    It could even be an elaborate hoax, for all I know.

    But I doubt it. It has a ring of truth, and 72% is such a perfect number; much higher than a coin flip, but not very high. A perfectly unexceptional number.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2020
  20. arcadeperfect Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2019
    Messages:
    2,722
    Likes Received:
    788
    Barboza > Hooker > Iaquinta > Lee > Barboza
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.