Examples of MMAth not working

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by sssleeper, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. sssleeper

    sssleeper Blue Belt

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    Yesterday RDA was convincingly beaten by Chiesa. However, Chiesa has been beaten by Pettis and Kevin Lee; guys who RDA beat.

    I know age, weightclasses, styles, etc play into it but what are some other good examples of MMAth not working? I particularly like instances when the fights aren't even close. Another example is Nate getting destroyed by Benson Henderson, who has been beaten twice by Pettis who was completely outworked by Nate.
     
  2. 20falarVerdades

    20falarVerdades Silver Belt

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    MMA math probably works better in reverse due to the fact that styles make matches
     
  3. billharford

    billharford 181 Likes

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    I'm going to go out on a limb and say guys who beat Matt Hamill can't actually beat Jon Jones
     
  4. Vincentsky

    Vincentsky Green Belt

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    Game plan and studying tape over time helps
     
  5. Sweater of AV

    Sweater of AV Silver Belt

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    Saku > Vitor > Wandy > Saku
     
  6. SeattleFightFan

    SeattleFightFan Steel Belt

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    So many.

    Instead, let's talk macro. Here's one analysis:

    I ran the analysis with all MMA bouts that we have on record (over 68,000). So how often does A beat C? In the end, A prevailed over C at a 71% success rate (2988 of 4210).

    When all three bouts occur within a 3 year window, the success rate improves to 72.3% (2144 of 2967).

    Within a 2 year window, 73% (1590 of 2179).
    • 18 months, 74.2% (1211 of 1633).
    • 12 months, 75.2% (732 of 974).
    • 9 months, 77.5% (488 of 630).
    • 6 months, 80.9% (262 of 324).
    • 3 months, 85.6% (77 of 90).
    Take it for what it's worth. From http://forum.mmajunkie.com/forum/threads/mma-math.9207/.
     
  7. aerius

    aerius Red Belt

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    Wandy > Jardine > Chuck > Wandy

    Joanna > Karolina, Esparza, Andrade, Tecia > Rose > Joanna
     
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  8. RockyLockridge

    RockyLockridge Silver Belt

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    Yeah, joanna is pretty much the goat with 1 bad matchup
     
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  9. Doctor Lenovo

    Doctor Lenovo Purple Belt

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    Too many to count.
     
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  10. Pancake Sprawl

    Pancake Sprawl WAR IGOR!!!11

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    Foreman > Frazier >Ali > Foreman

    Foreman > Norton > Ali > Foreman

    Foreman > Moorer > Holyfield > Foreman
     
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  11. felmmando

    felmmando Black Belt

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    Holm > Rousey > Tate > Holm

    Not such a blatant example, since both lost, but Frankie Edgar did better against Max Holloway than Jose Aldo, who beat Edgar.

    These are just off the top of my head; the cases are legion.
     
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  12. Nandez

    Nandez Yellow Belt

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    Grass is green. Water is wet.
     
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  13. sssleeper

    sssleeper Blue Belt

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    Yeah totally. Awesome contribution to the topic of discussion.
     
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  14. old school 2

    old school 2 Brown Belt

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    MMA math is generally just logic. If a fighter has destroyed every fighter they have ever faced they should beat a fighter that hasn’t if they are fighting similar competition.
     
  15. esdoornblad

    esdoornblad How soon is now?

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    How did you access the database?
     
  16. El Fernas

    El Fernas Silver Belt

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    Mmath doesnt play well with age, RDA that beat Pettis would had beaten Chiesa, might sound like this week's prediction, but its fair to say that was a different RDA.
     
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  17. tekkenfan

    tekkenfan Black Belt

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    cause un trained people dont realize size really does matter when skill levels are somewhat close rda will never be a top 170 he is to small its to easy to grind on a guy like that their is a reason guys cut weight rda always gets wrestle fuked
     
  18. dipstickjimmy

    dipstickjimmy Black Belt

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    MMA is like Rock, Paper, Scissors. The true GREATS can beat all styles while the very good lose to those who are very good at something they are not.

    It is what makes GSP & Fedor Goats. They can blast thru opponents, put extended beat downs on opponents and even come back from adversity against opponents. Jon is GOAT worthy but has a pinch of salt in an Olympic Sized Pool against him IMO.
     
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  19. SeattleFightFan

    SeattleFightFan Steel Belt

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    Wasn't me. I just found the post, years ago. And share it every now and again.

    It could even be an elaborate hoax, for all I know.

    But I doubt it. It has a ring of truth, and 72% is such a perfect number; much higher than a coin flip, but not very high. A perfectly unexceptional number.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2020
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  20. arcadeperfect

    arcadeperfect Blue Belt

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    Barboza > Hooker > Iaquinta > Lee > Barboza
     
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