For me, I'm a big believer in having a primary and fallback gameplan. It sounds simple, but when I was fighting virtually nobody had that mindset. I'd say your primary gameplan should be to use what little boxing you have to setup your takedowns or clinch and then hopefully work from the top position. Your fallback plan would be to secure the clinch however you can and then look for a butt scoot to pull guard.
The point I think you want to switch from the primary to fallback is when you have 2-4 failed takedown attempts (depending on if it failed because you did something stupid or if he legitmately stuffed them). At that point, you can be pretty certain he can outsprawl your takedowns. It's important to feel ok in going back to your primary gameplan in rounds 2 and 3 if you think your conditioning is overtaking his. If he's too tired to defend the takedown then definately go for it.
For your primary gameplan I think you might want to focus on putting as much polish on what boxing skills you have. Specifically, I'd REALLY focus on only 4 combos: double jab, overhand right, jab-cross, jab-cross-uppercut. The more polished you look throwing those the more your opponent will think about your hands (rather than the takedown). The idea w/ the boxing is even if you're just throwing them and only hitting air, he's at least going to be worried about not getting hit which hopefully will open up the clinch or takedown. If you tag him all the better and I GUARANTEE he'll be thinking about your hands. You'll want to get used to throwing your punches like normal, but also while rushing him (to close the distance and setup a shoot or clinch).
For your backup plan, I'm not quite as sure how'd I'd recommend setting that up...the only thing I can think of is stalking him, cutting off the ring, and keep him backed up till his back is against the ropes/cage. From there you can drive in hands/arms high around your head and hopefully secure a clinch. From there drop to guard, pull sacrifice throw, etc. I'm less certain about which tactics to recommend in this situation.
Lastly, I'd definately get the notion that you're going to lose out of your head. For each every fight you should get it in your head that you're better than this guy, but not by much and fully expect a war. Expect to be hit hard and often, expect to get put in bad spots, believe that you're able to get out of any bad spot you're put in (but not easily), expect your will to get tested but not broken, and expect to get VERY VERY tired no matter what kind of conditioning you come in w/ (e.g. expect to outwork your opponent and expect him to be very conditioned).