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Economy Energy Independence: Gas Crisis in Europe Drives U.S. LNG Exports to Record High

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Arkain2K, May 9, 2018.

  1. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    Why do you think OPEC is finally forced to compete at a reasonable price right now, instead of jacking it up to $150 a barrel like in 2008, before the dawn of U.S shale revolution? Out of the goodness of their hearts perhaps? o_O
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2019
  2. Reactionary Corporatist Banned Banned

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    Fracking is horrifically destructive to the environment and poisons the groundwater of wherever it is practiced.
     
  3. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    Looks like American oil workers' pay is increasing nicely along with the record production:

     
  4. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    Iran’s Oil Minister Warns That OPEC Collapse Is Likely
    By Arsalan Shahla and Grant Smith | May 2, 2019

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    Iran’s oil minister warned that OPEC is in danger of collapse as some nations seek to undermine their fellow members, an apparent reference to Saudi Arabia’s pledge to fill the supply gap created by U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports.

    "Iran is a member of OPEC for its interests and any threat from member states won’t go unanswered," Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said after a meeting with OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo in Tehran on Thursday, according to the oil ministry’s Shana news agency.

    His comments come as U.S. President Donald Trump tries to cut the Islamic Republic’s oil exports to zero, backed by a promise from Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies to increase production to ensure the squeeze doesn’t create a supply shortage.

    Those countries boosted production last year as the first round of American sanctions hit Iran, without splitting the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This year, however, Iran is under even greater pressure, with fewer options to keep its economy afloat.

    Zanganeh had already censured "two neighboring states" for voicing readiness to fill the gap of Iranian barrels in the market. "I told Mr. Barkindo that OPEC is in danger by the unilateralism of some members and the organization faces the risk of collapse," he said on Thursday, stopping short of naming names.

    The lost barrels, along with supply disruptions in Venezuela and elsewhere, have raised the question of whether OPEC’s biggest producers have a big enough supply buffer to keep the market in balance. Zanganeh last month accused Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates of exaggerating their surplus oil capacity.

    Discord between OPEC’s Gulf members has shaken the organization in the past year. Qatar announced its exit in December after more than five decades of membership after its neighbor Saudi Arabia targeted the nation with an economic blockade.

    “Qatar’s departure broke the seal. Iran’s would be much more serious, but no longer unthinkable,” said Derek Brower, an analyst at RS Energy Group. “Iran thinks two members are conspiring with the U.S. against it -- a good enough reason for Tehran to consider it’s position.”

    OPEC negotiations in December initially ran into difficulties because of disagreement between the Saudis and Iran, who are longstanding geopolitical foes, but in the end there was a deal. Yet setting aside Qatar’s departure, the group has held together for almost sixty years despite a range of political quarrels and conflicts, such as the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait the following decade.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...r-zanganeh-warns-that-opec-collapse-is-likely
     
  5. Caudillo Banned Banned

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    Your wife has had bigger than you in her past
    This is good. Hopefully venezuela and iran fail . Good for US and Russia
     
  6. NoDak Banned Banned

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    US OIL OUTPUT HITS 12 MILLION BARREL-A-DAY MILESTONE WAY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
    NoDak Bakken Reserves Hold 30 to 40 Billion Barrels Of Recoverable Oil
    Why The Permian Basin May Become World's Largest Oil Field
    Rystad: U.S. Shale Can Add A Saudi Arabia And (Easily) Pay Investors

    [​IMG]
     
  7. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    Man, I wish it would be "good for U.S and Canada", but them crazy Canucks are busy fucking themselves over when it comes to energy exports.
     
  8. NoDak Banned Banned

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    Alberta would make a good 51st state.
     
  9. Cuauhtemoc Silver Belt

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    Also, in a large enough timeline, oil will be obsolete. You need to make money now while you can.
    Imagine how angry Venezuelans will be when they finally start drilling again 50 years from now and everybody moved to electric.
     
  10. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    The U.S. Accounted For 98% Of Global Oil Production Growth In 2018
    Robert Rapier | Jun 23, 2019

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    Pump jacks extract crude oil from oil wells in Midland, Texas, U.S., on Monday, Dec. 17, 2018.
    Recent reports indicate that the Permian Basin underlying Midland may now be the world's most productive oil-producing region

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapie...l-oil-production-growth-in-2018/#2e23a6a75125
     
  11. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    US Oil Production Hits New All Time High
    by Andreas Exarheas | Tuesday, June 25, 2019

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    U.S. crude oil production reached a new all time high of 12.2 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in May.

    That’s according to the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) latest monthly statistical report, which revealed that Texas crude oil output exceeded 5 MMbpd last month for the first time.

    “These milestones were achieved despite less drilling activity, which is testament to productivity but also pipeline infrastructure expansions that helped enable drilled but uncompleted wells to come to market,” the API report stated.

    Last month also saw record U.S. petroleum exports at 8.1 MMbpd and a U.S. crude oil inventory increase of 10.5 percent over May 2018, the report revealed.

    In its second quarter industry outlook report, released on the same day as the latest monthly statistical report, the API said the United States is poised for a continuation of record oil production. This report also highlighted that while U.S. crude oil export capacity has been “sufficient”, some capacity estimates suggest “some urgency to plan forward”.

    “The historic milestones in U.S. oil production this quarter underscore the necessity of pipeline infrastructure to continued U.S. energy leadership,” API Chief Economist Dean Foreman said in an organization statement.

    “With the surge expected to continue, our focus must now shift toward ensuring the necessary infrastructure and logistics are in place to support growth in providing energy to consumers, as well as exports,” he added.

    “If current predictions by the U.S. Energy Information Administration and others prove correct, the U.S. will likely push up against the lower bound of existing crude oil export capacity by the end of this year, which creates urgency around building new infrastructure to ensure we don’t miss out on this rare opportunity,” Foreman continued.

    https://www.rigzone.com/news/us_oil_production_hits_new_all_time_high-25-jun-2019-159151-article/
     
  12. ElKarlo Titanium Belt

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    Did you see the muerte vaca region in Argentina is now set to be able to produce e both oil and gas? Shale and fracking tech ftw
     
  13. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    The sort of news headlines on oil these days was utterly unfathomable when we had no choice but paying in excess of $100 for each barrel of oil from the OPEC cartel between 2011 and 2013, and every minor reduction (even artificial ones) in their output capacity means instant punch in the guts at the pump for everyone else around the world.

    Then comes the U.S shale revolution, and now we have this:


    Global spare oil capacity in U.S. hands after Saudi outage
    September 14, 2019

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    An attack on Saudi oil facilities on Saturday is believed to have disrupted half the country’s production capacity, making the United States the only real holder of the global supply cushion via its ability to raise own output or to soften sanctions against other major oil producers.

    Saudi Arabia has yet to comment on the extent of damage on its oil production but industry sources have said some 5-6 million barrels per day (bpd) or 5-6% of global supply have been affected.

    Saudi Arabia, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ de-facto leader and largest producer, has been long seen as the custodian of the world’s spare oil capacity.

    Spare capacity is the extra oil a producing country can bring onstream and sustain at short notice, providing global markets with a cushion in the event of natural disaster, conflict or any other cause of an unplanned supply outage.

    Industry sources have said Saudi Arabia will be able to restore supply within days. A prolonged supply outage will have a major bullish impact on oil prices, which in turn will spur further gains in U.S. shale production.

    [​IMG]

    The United States has briefly overtaken Saudi Arabia as the world largest crude exporter this year, only a few years after removing a ban on oil exports because of large needs at home as the world’s largest oil consumer.

    Analysts have repeatedly underestimated U.S. output growth gains with the country now producing around 15% of global supply.

    Besides the United States, the only countries which have significant spare capacity are Iran and Venezuela.

    Both are subject to U.S. sanctions and have seen their exports reduced to a trickle over the past year as U.S. President Donald Trump has tightened sanctions.

    Iran has seen its exports falling by over 2 million bpd since the sanctions have been imposed and Venezuela have seen its exports plummeting too.

    While analysts expect Venezuelan production to more or less stabilize at current levels of around 700,000-800,000 bpd for the rest of the year, Iranian oil production is forecast to fall further.

    Energy Aspects has said it expects OPEC spare capacity to fall to below 1 million bpd in the fourth quarter from two million bpd in the second quarter of 2019.

    [​IMG]

    WILDCARDS

    OPEC member Libya is in the middle of a civil war, which threatens its ability to continue pumping oil. Another big Libyan disruption would add to the shocks and highlight the spare capacity problem.

    Nigerian exports have also suffered big from disruptions.

    Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production is expected to rise to new records.

    However, large U.S. crude output gains and slowing global demand because of a weaker global economy have contributed to a rise in oil stocks worldwide.

    The International Energy Agency, which coordinates energy policies of industrialized nations, said on Saturday the markets were still well supplies despite the Saudi disruptions.

    “We are massively oversupplied,” said Christyan Malek, head of oil and gas research for Europe, Middle East and Africa at J.P. Morgan, adding it would take five months of a 5 million-bpd outage to take global crude supply levels back to a 40-year normal average.

    “Having said that, this attack introduces a new, irreversible risk premium into the market,” he added.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-in-us-hands-after-saudi-outage-idUSKBN1VZ0ND
     
  14. Arkain2K Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    The US shale revolution has reshaped the energy landscape at home and abroad, according to latest IEA policy review
    9/13/2019​

    https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/...-abroad-according-to-latest-iea-policy-review
     
  15. PEB Great turntable of space and time dude

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    The Future dude
    Close to 3 dollars a gallon in many areas it is already well over 3 dollars a gallon. I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY TIMES I HAVE SAID WE NEED TO REDUCE OUR NEED FOR OIL. Yes in all capitals but they will continue to sell us drill baby drill by a population of people who trade in oil stocks and tell us the US is the largest producer of oil oh and if the national average for the price of oil goes above 3.50 to nearly 4 dollars a gallon Trumps reelection chances become far worse.
     
  16. ElKarlo Titanium Belt

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    Well one thing not mentioned, Saudi Arabia and the Aramco IPO. This will definitely ding it's price. Which even if they were planning on offering 100 Billion, could cost ten billion if not more of lost money due to terrorism concerns.
     
  17. JDragon Lawn and Order!

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    I would actually doubt the IPO is gonna happen now.
     
  18. So what oil shares am I buying? A guy here told me he had on a company in east Texas and another in Dakota.
     
  19. Ophydian Gold Belt

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    I don’t understand how a single drone attack on a single refinery has shutdown half of their production??
     
  20. ElKarlo Titanium Belt

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    Don't. Oil producers don't and won't outperform the market. Many franking companies have piles of debt
     

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