Elon Musk Agrees to $44b Deal for Twitter

Free speech absolutist wielding the ban hammer? I guess elon doesn’t like free speech after all!
 
I think bankruptcy is highly highly unlikely

The easiest way to think about it is to focus on the $13B senior secured debt. The bank have been trying to unload that debt at 50-60 cents.

In a worst case scenario, Musk could buy up the debt for, say, $7B. The $1.3B of annual interest payments disappear & Twitter would have time to turn around its operations.

This is not some genius business move. Musk would have to sell assets to raise the cash. His main liquid asset is Tesla shares. Musk triggers tax gains with those sales. Let’s say that $7B costs him $12B overall by the time he pays his taxes. Furthermore, the sale of shares likely cuts the valuation of Tesla thereby further reducing Musk’s net worth.

This is a fancy way of saying that Musk has the financial resources to buy himself out of any immediate trouble at Twitter. It may or may not be throwing good money after bad money but he can definitely do it

EDIT: I have read 2 different "genius Musk" scenarios that are worthy of mention (actually they are prob not worthy but I will do it anyway)

1. Musk puts Twitter into bankruptcy and then buys Twitter back at a fraction of the cost. This is not how corporate bankruptcy works.

2. Twitter defaults on interest payments but Musk wins a game of brinkmanship with the banks. The banks are somehow so beholden to Musk's genius or so thirsty to underwrite a future SpaceX IPO that they stand down rather than face the wrath of Musk. I guess nothing is impossible but in 99% of scenarios they take the company or sell the debt to vulture funds who will definitely take the company (that is what they do). Musk and his equity partners are out.
This man knows finance
 
Is it though? I don't get n twitter often, but I haven't noticed any hate speech popping up.

I also heard on the news that they banned Ye for posting a swastika.
I’m just speaking in reference to their ads. None are hateful but you can see the desperation of advertising essentially any and everything they can.

Looking in replies to tweets is where you’ll see the influx of right wing ideals and borderline hate speech.
 
I know a couple got banned for creating new accounts while temporarily suspened

Chad Loder and a few other independent journalists got banned after getting targeted by Ngo because they had put up posts that were critical of Musk, Tesla or Ngo himself.

Ngo is also continuing to smear the guy that he accused of assaulting and robbing him during the protest where he was supposedly attacked with the "cement filled milkshake" after the guy was acquitted at trial.
 
I think bankruptcy is highly highly unlikely

The easiest way to think about it is to focus on the $13B senior secured debt. The bank have been trying to unload that debt at 50-60 cents.

In a worst case scenario, Musk could buy up the debt for, say, $7B. The $1.3B of annual interest payments disappear & Twitter would have time to turn around its operations.

This is not some genius business move. Musk would have to sell assets to raise the cash. His main liquid asset is Tesla shares. Musk triggers tax gains with those sales. Let’s say that $7B costs him $12B overall by the time he pays his taxes. Furthermore, the sale of shares likely cuts the valuation of Tesla thereby further reducing Musk’s net worth.

This is a fancy way of saying that Musk has the financial resources to buy himself out of any immediate trouble at Twitter. It may or may not be throwing good money after bad money but he can definitely do it

EDIT: I have read 2 different "genius Musk" scenarios that are worthy of mention (actually they are prob not worthy but I will do it anyway)

1. Musk puts Twitter into bankruptcy and then buys Twitter back at a fraction of the cost. This is not how corporate bankruptcy works.

2. Twitter defaults on interest payments but Musk wins a game of brinkmanship with the banks. The banks are somehow so beholden to Musk's genius or so thirsty to underwrite a future SpaceX IPO that they stand down rather than face the wrath of Musk. I guess nothing is impossible but in 99% of scenarios they take the company or sell the debt to vulture funds who will definitely take the company (that is what they do). Musk and his equity partners are out.

This may be one of the most insightful posts I've ever read in the Warroom.

Among the general population, finance is probably the #1 subject we're the least educated on.

By design.
 
The easiest way to think about it is to focus on the $13B senior secured debt. The bank have been trying to unload that debt at 50-60 cents.

Where are you pulling these numbers from?


This is a fancy way of saying that Musk has the financial resources to buy himself out of any immediate trouble at Twitter. It may or may not be throwing good money after bad money but he can definitely do it.

But in this scenario, Musk has purchased $13 billion in debt for $12 billion. So he's saved 1 billion in exchange for cashing out $7 more billion in his Tesla stock. That's not smart. At this point, Musk could genuinely lose his position at Tesla, just to clear debt for Twitter. I mean, I guess it sounds better to wash the money around like this rather than just admit Musk actually paid $56 billion for Twitter rather than the initial tag of $44. Still, I'm not seeing this as smart.

EDIT: I have read 2 different "genius Musk" scenarios that are worthy of mention (actually they are prob not worthy but I will do it anyway)

Oh god.

1. Musk puts Twitter into bankruptcy and then buys Twitter back at a fraction of the cost. This is not how corporate bankruptcy works.

This one either results in Elon in jail, or the courts deny him bankruptcy protection.

2. Twitter defaults on interest payments but Musk wins a game of brinkmanship with the banks. The banks are somehow so beholden to Musk's genius or so thirsty to underwrite a future SpaceX IPO that they stand down rather than face the wrath of Musk. I guess nothing is impossible but in 99% of scenarios they take the company or sell the debt to vulture funds who will definitely take the company (that is what they do). Musk and his equity partners are out.

At this point do you really think any major bank is just gonna eat a $13 billion dollar loss (not to mention the reputational loss of your institution just straight being punked by a rich douche), all in the hope that his next play will be just amazing?

Dude if this Musk's best "genius" move, then the man is proper fucked.
 
Just want to leave this here:



It's all smoke and mirrors as usual with this guy.

Who has time to watch a 30 minute video of some small time YouTuber criticizing Musk? Summarize if you think it adds something to the discussion.
 
Free speech absolutist wielding the ban hammer? I guess elon doesn’t like free speech after all!

Elon has been consistent about his view of free speech on twitter and it's never been absolute--that's just a strawman people have built to attack him as his actual position isn't really attackable. He has called for fairness and transparency, that is all.

Also, Ye wasn't banned he was suspended... more strawman building.
 
Who has time to watch a 30 minute video of some small time YouTuber criticizing Musk? Summarize if you think it adds something to the discussion.
Yet, you have time to watch a "show and tell" PR stunt for more than 2½ hours? Holy irony, Batman.

1. Musk isn't an expert on the subject and doesn't know anything about neuroscience
2. Almost all co-founders of the company has quit
3. Neurolink copied the technology shown in the monkey promo videos from research done a decade before
4. A vast majority of the monkeys died grusome deaths (vomiting to death, self mutilation, brain hemmoraging)
5. Musk has claimed human trials will be coming this year for several years in a row
6. Musk is claiming the surgery procedure will be local anesthetics, in and out on the same day and will be able to cure mental disorders and obesity (all not possible with the technological concept)
7. Musk is making outrageously unrealistic science fiction claims about cyborgs, AI and transferring human consciousness into golems
8. Musk is making outragous demands on staff creating a toxic work environment
9. Nobody left at Neurolink seems to know wtf they are doing

All that in a 23 minute video.
 
Who has time to watch a 30 minute video of some small time YouTuber criticizing Musk? Summarize if you think it adds something to the discussion.

It's a rather solid video of a guy going point-by-point through all the various claims Elon has made regarding Neurolink's capabilities, destroying them one-by-one, and citing some of the top guys in the fields of neuroscience and neurosurgery, as well as many of the founding members of Neurolink.

Honestly, I thought it would be right up your alley.
 
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