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Yeah fair points.
If you're reasoning Gaethje to win, you definitely have to say Barboza is susceptible to pressure. Who knows, Justin might also want to dust off his wrestling shoes to give edson more to think about.
If you want to see it for Edson, there are reasons as well. He is susceptible to pressure but Gaethje is less tricky than the guys who have had success against him in the past. There have been guys like Melendez for example who pressured Barboza a lot but didn't threaten enough with the TD to make him uncomfortable. Melendez got lit the fuck up in the close range, despite looking sharp early and pressure hard. Gaethje is really prone to eating big, clean shots. That's basically his M.O, even against less talented strikers.
I think the x-factor is how well can Gaethje take cleans shots from Edson. Unless he pulls out another quick knockout (which is entirely possible), you can almost bet Edson is going to tag him a lot. What worried me about Gaethje against Vick (I was rooting hard for justin) was that Vick kicked him in the first 30 seconds and it seemed to hurt Justin a lot but Vick didn't notice. He addressed after that he was hurt bad to the body from that kick. He is battle worn you know. He's been stopped by strikes in 2 of his last three and rocked and dropped in 5 of his last 6.
Edson took a ton of damage from Khabib and Lee as well but at least against Hooker he showed no signs of residual effect. At least in my opinion. I don't know if you agree.
Melendez doesn't have much punching power and he's far more of a grappler in MMA than Gaethje is. I'm not sure who I favor in this fight as I can see either guy winning. I really think the most important thing is who controls the range, if Barboza can keep Gaethje at kickboxing range for long periods of time he will likely win, if he cannot and Gaethje is constantly in punching range of Barboza then he likely wins. Barboza is really good but his best weapons are his kicks and he needs range for those while Gaethje is much better in the pocket than Barboza is and even throws low kicks from that range as well(Barboza doesn't in that range).
I do agree that Barboza doesn't seem to have been negatively impacted by the Khabib and Lee fights which was a question before his last fight, same can be said for Gaethje though as well since both have taken a lot of damage in 2018.
It seems the poll results are accurate, this is a very close fight and should be a great one, I just hope it lives up to the match up on paper.