Eddie Wineland vs Frankie Saenz - Quick analysis (GIFs included)

I know this is super delayed but every week or two I'm gonna try to post my thoughts on undercard fights that piqued my interest. Feedback is appreciated guys!

After 3 straight wins in the UFC followed by a competitive showing against perennial contender Urijah Faber, Frankie Saenz (11-4) was primed for a showcase performance on Saturday. Meanwhile Eddie Wineland (22-11) was on the other end of the spectrum, enduring a 14 month layoff after a KO loss to Johnny Eduardo followed by a lackluster decision loss to Bryan Caraway.

From the outset Saenz employed an outside fighting approach where half of his output relied on low kicks. They were effective in disrupting the rhythm of Wineland’s movement, often forcing Wineland to reset his stance and limiting his ability to initiate the boxing exchanges.



Despite the impression Wineland’s low guard may give to some, Wineland in fact has the 2nd highest striking defense in the bantamweight division (71%). His variety of feints, slips, level changes and propensity to bounce in and out of range consistently made it difficult for Saenz to get a read on Wineland and tempered the volume of strikes Saenz usually lands in his bouts.

The clash of styles created an interesting dynamic. Unable to get takedowns and constantly on the backfoot, Saenz found himself in a position where he would lunge into his strikes in an attempt to intercept Wineland moving into range.



However, this created ample opportunities for Wineland to counter. In his post fight interview Wineland mentions he worked extensively on the slip-cross/hook. And in the first round he has some real success with it as he slips the left hook from Saenz, touches him with a left hook of his own and lands a flush right hook that hurts Saenz.




While knockout/knockdown blows are always captivating, I also have an appreciation for the moving parts that allow them to happen. The first one is Wineland’s jab. Although he seldom landed it, Wineland’s jab served two purposes in the lead up to the knockdown sequence in the 3rd round:

1. Defensive tool. Used to frame away from Saenz’s strikes when backing out of range.
2. Measuring tool. Used to gauge the distance for the right cross.

The next thing he did to secure the knockdown was get in the right position. Instead retreating straight backwards, he stepped off line on a slightly diagonal angle. This also has a couple advantages:

1. Defensive tool. Used to shift your body away from the line of attack.
2. Provides a better angle to strike the “soft” points of the head (side of the jaw, temple & behind the ear).



The synergy between measuring the distance and taking the angle were key steps to getting the finish for Wineland. The full time fire fighter had continually considered retirement prior to the bout, so hopefully he sticks around now that he's got a little momentum behind him.

The depth of contenders at 135 is deeper than it's ever been, who do you think Wineland should fight next?

 

If you mean Wineland I'm not sure but he's going to face a tough fighter regardless. He's one of those fighters that get no tune up fights since he's well established. Either way I had a good feeling that Wineland was going to win under pressure. He still fights like an idiot though and his main losses were taking shots because he wasn't on the defense. I mean I understand the whole takedown defense advantage but he's a decent wrestler just put your hands up man!

 

Completely missing the point, Wineland's hand position is well thought and intergrated into his striking style and his offensive output would also be affected by a hands up approach.

 

Great breakdown TS. I was very impressed with Wineland as well as I favored Saenz. What really impressed me was his power -- Saenz's chin is otherworldly and has great recovery ability. I don't know why he didn't use his wrestling more, but I give all the credit in the world to Wineland for his performance. I think Rogan does a great job usually but I find his constant critiquing of Wineland to be off point and not so anomalous as Rogan makes it seem. In retrospect, he definitely deserved the bout against Saenz, but I felt it was a rough fight for him coming off layoffs and losses. With this win, it's not too hard to come up with an exciting match up given the momentum of the divisions recent surge of talent. Personally, I think I'd like to see him fight John Lineker or possibly Joe Soto.

 

And Eddie has had two broken jaws because of that style.

 

Yeah he still has a tendency to square up in the exchanges so I can see where you're coming from. However I think overall his head movement and distance management in this fight indicate that he's becoming more cognizant of taking damage. A higher guard is only one alternative to improving defense whereas if he continues to slip, pivot and bounce between ranges (like Cruz who has the highest striking defense in the UFC) then he should be able to keep his hand position low.

 

Saenz got Wonderboy'd

 

Thanks man. Yeah I don't think Rogan mentions it with the intent to throw shade at Wineland but it does feel like it detracts from what Wineland does well.

Also, I think Saenz found it hard to initiate takedowns because he was fighting on the outside a lot. Saenz does his best work when he's the one pressuring because he's in a better position cut you off against the cage and work in the clinch. And with Wineland's erratic movement between ranges it would have been difficult for Saenz to time his TD attempts although he did hit a nice knee tap in the 1st round.

 

what johnny eduardo did to wineland can be done only by really high level strikers, other than that what i have seen of wineland is awesome boxing
keeping hands high is only one facet of boxing defence, head movement, range and slipping punches are equally important

 

Think there's a reason why they say hands up chin down. Even if he doesn't get KO'd a lot of the time he takes damage he is trying to get his hand up to block and isn't quick enough and gets hit you can even see it in the gif. The benefit of hands down isn't worth the damage he takes anymore. Cruz might be similar but his movement is far better then Eddie's plus he uses angles where Eddie just plots.

 

Wineland is good, but neither of these blokes are beating the elite.

 

That makes sense -- and although Saenz is good on the ground, I don't think he'd of had much to offer against Wineland who's difficult to keep down and has a solid bottom game. I just feel it would have opened up more opportunity but I feel Wineland would've won regardless. Who do you want to see Wineland face next?

 

I think the winner of Rivera vs Perez this weekend makes sense to me. Although at this stage of his career he's probably going to be a gatekeeper of that division so I have a feeling he might get someone like Almeida or McDonald instead.