Easy Free Money, Djokovic > Roanic?

[benebox]

So djoko won. Amazing bet lol. In hindsight it wasnt that much of a lock tbh. Djoko could have easily let this match slide, he wouldnt want to get injured right before the US open.

I was a little scared after the first set, my friend told me to bet more on Djok but I didn't listen. He wasn't ever that close to losing the match after he dropped the first so was a good call.

@benebox how much did you bet?

I max bet 5u so £500. Which brings me to my target price to raise my price per unit to £150

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

@benebox

If you want to talk tennis bets, let me know. I was getting into it a lot more (and even started taping matches, heh) before the commie cough struck.

 

[WolfgangKennelz]

I was a little scared after the first set, my friend told me to bet more on Djok but I didn't listen. He wasn't ever that close to losing the match after he dropped the first so was a good call.

I max bet 5u so £500. Which brings me to my target price to raise my price per unit to £150

Did u watch the match lol?? Djokovic got broke in the 3rd set how was he never close to losing match. Be careful. Djokovic was over +300 live in the final set. Thats pretty close to losing but congrats on your win

 

[benebox]

@benebox

If you want to talk tennis bets, let me know. I was getting into it a lot more (and even started taping matches, heh) before the commie cough struck.

For sure, you will know a lot more than me so I appreciate it. I have a parlay my friend sent me which is basically all his the 1st round open locks which I'll post later today!

Did u watch the match lol?? Djokovic got broke in the 3rd set how was he never close to losing match. Be careful. Djokovic was over +300 live in the final set. Thats pretty close to losing but congrats on your win

I was at the bar with a couple of friends so not really paying attention but that would have given me a fright for sure. But that is part of the reason why I was trying to explain why I liked to bet Tennis favourites. In tennis, the clearly better player nearly always wins (unless it's Federer in a final) even when matches are extremely close, because unlike MMA there are no judges and you can afford to make up for your mistakes without it costing you the match. My friend actually made a killing by betting more on Djok when he went down (and messaged me to do the same) at plus money... but that was earlier in the match when he was a set down opposed to having to break serve for the match which I don't think even he would have had the balls to do against a big server like Roanic.

Although maybe we should start considering live betting Djok when he goes down for the future, seems like its quite often he falls behind only to come back and win in a lot of these big matches.

 

[benebox]

@PolarBearPaulVarelans let me know what you think.

Below are 3 parlays for the open:

1. The first is of lock bets. (£200 to win £149.49)
2. The second is with added very likely to win bets. (£50 to win £170.59)
3. The third with bets that should win. (£10 to win £638.14)

 

[benebox]

 

[benebox]

 

[Grow Hogan]

Dammit I got in here late lol. I thought I was early not many posts.

Thanks for the tip anyhow it aint easy to put other peoples balls on the chopping block so you must have know enough to be confident.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

@benebox

I generally dislike parlays in any sport, whether MMA or tennis. I also need to correct one basic assumption you're making.

In tennis, the clearly better player nearly always wins

Not true at all. In fact, tennis is more high-variance than MMA. A player ranked 100th in the world beats the 30th best player all the time. It's a very tricky and somewhat random sport.

Now, there are a FEW players in the entire world, whether on the women's or men's side, who have an amazing degree of consistency. Djokovic, one of the greatest players ever, is one.

Dominic Thiem, who you included in a few parlays, is another.

But even someone like Medvedev, a ridiculously talented player who pushed Nadal to the absolute limit at the US Open Finals last year, ranked number 5in the world, isn't quite consistent enough to put in such a massive parlay, especially at those odds.

He is 3-3 in his last 6 tour matches, with losses to Agut (12th in the world), an ancient Simon (58th in the world), and a fringe player like Pospisil (104th in the world).

To use a MMA example, imagine Dan Hooker or Charles Oliveira losing to Evan Dunham. That's the equivalent of losing to Pospisil, and yet, that's not especially unusual in the tennis world.

 

[benebox]

@benebox

I generally dislike parlays in any sport, whether MMA or tennis. I also need to correct one basic assumption you're making.



Not true at all. In fact, tennis is more high-variance than MMA. A player ranked 100th in the world beats the 30th best player all the time. It's a very tricky and somewhat random sport.

Now, there are a FEW players in the entire world, whether on the women's or men's side, who have an amazing degree of consistency. Djokovic, one of the greatest players ever, is one.

Dominic Thiem, who you included in a few parlays, is another.

But even someone like Medvedev, a ridiculously talented player who pushed Nadal to the absolute limit at the US Open Finals last year, ranked number 5in the world, isn't quite consistent enough to put in such a massive parlay, especially at those odds.

He is 3-3 in his last 6 tour matches, with losses to Agut (12th in the world), an ancient Simon (58th in the world), and a fringe player like Pospisil (104th in the world).

To use a MMA example, imagine Dan Hooker or Charles Oliveira losing to Evan Dunham. That's the equivalent of losing to Pospisil, and yet, that's not especially unusual in the tennis world.

You're right, sorry I was definitely hyperbolizing a point rather poorly... It's rather hard to compare the 2 sports in a ranking perspective but you're right in that regard. I just wanted to point out that for a -250 favorite Djok could make a number of errors without it costing him the match (even though I said something completely different I sort of meant it in regards to HF open parlay betting) and still win because he is that much better of a player. Also, something to consider is the likeness for upsets in an open is less due to the 5 round matches which is why its the only event I will parlay. It has been a real money maker for me over the last few years.

 

[Roads55]

@benebox

I generally dislike parlays in any sport, whether MMA or tennis. I also need to correct one basic assumption you're making.



Not true at all. In fact, tennis is more high-variance than MMA. A player ranked 100th in the world beats the 30th best player all the time. It's a very tricky and somewhat random sport.

Now, there are a FEW players in the entire world, whether on the women's or men's side, who have an amazing degree of consistency. Djokovic, one of the greatest players ever, is one.

Dominic Thiem, who you included in a few parlays, is another.

But even someone like Medvedev, a ridiculously talented player who pushed Nadal to the absolute limit at the US Open Finals last year, ranked number 5in the world, isn't quite consistent enough to put in such a massive parlay, especially at those odds.

He is 3-3 in his last 6 tour matches, with losses to Agut (12th in the world), an ancient Simon (58th in the world), and a fringe player like Pospisil (104th in the world).

To use a MMA example, imagine Dan Hooker or Charles Oliveira losing to Evan Dunham. That's the equivalent of losing to Pospisil, and yet, that's not especially unusual in the tennis world.

agreed, but you need to keep in mind oftentimes players aren't giving 100% opposed to fighting, whether because of injuries, looking at the next tournament, playing on a weaker surface etc. this is amplified by the return from covid with all the layers being in various degrees of physical shape having different training oppurtunities depending on where they stayed etc. gonna be interesting to see how all this plays out in the US open this year. and then ofc we got RG so soon after.

 

[Roads55]

also, players like raonic? you can never trust him even if he's a set and a break up it doesn't matter, he is a career underachiever. on paper it may of looked like djoko was close to losing but mentally that is rarely the case with his level of mental fortitude. rarely do you see djoko choke he has too much experience, unlike raonic who chokes on the regular and has had chunks of his career hampered by injuries.

 

[benebox]

Below are 3 parlays for the open:

1. The first is of lock bets. (£200 to win £149.49)
2. The second is with added very likely to win bets. (£50 to win £170.59)
3. The third with bets that should win. (£10 to win £638.14)

..............................
Net Profit: £310.08

Annoyingly both Americans let me down in the big parlay.... rd 2 parlays incoming

 

[benebox]

agreed, but you need to keep in mind oftentimes players aren't giving 100% opposed to fighting, whether because of injuries, looking at the next tournament, playing on a weaker surface etc. this is amplified by the return from covid with all the layers being in various degrees of physical shape having different training oppurtunities depending on where they stayed etc. gonna be interesting to see how all this plays out in the US open this year. and then ofc we got RG so soon after.

Also, it will be interesting to see how not having a crowd will affect players... It's actually a pity Federer is injured because I think he would perform better without the extra crowd pressure.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Also, it will be interesting to see how not having a crowd will affect players... It's actually a pity Federer is injured because I think he would perform better without the extra crowd pressure.

I feel like a crowd has zero impact on a tennis match. Why do you feel otherwise?

 

[Roads55]

Also, it will be interesting to see how not having a crowd will affect players... It's actually a pity Federer is injured because I think he would perform better without the extra crowd pressure.

yeah, It'll be different for different players but there are numerous players who feed of the crowd at times. djoko, serena are obvious ones. nadal also when RG comes around. idk if they have fans there or not though, I'd guess not though with spains corona problems.

 

[benebox]

I feel like a crowd has zero impact on a tennis match. Why do you feel otherwise?

My personal feeling is that doing anything in front of a crowd will affect certain people differently no matter how experienced they are. I always felt that in tennis, cheering can feed a player but also add unwanted pressure, especially on those big points. I remember watching Tim Henman at Wimbledon and the crowd getting so involved with their cheering that the intensity became unnerving. To what degree (if at all) it affects pro players, I have no idea.

 

[benebox]

Parlay for the second round, again like with the first rd:

1. The first is of lock bets. (£200 to win £147.80)
2. The second is with added very likely to win bets. (£50 to win £164.12)
3. The third with bets that should win (£15 + £5 free bet to win £208.08)

 

[benebox]

 

[benebox]