I didn't realize how poor Smith would look standing. I knew he wasn't a good striker, but I didn't realize Flick would look that much more comfortable. He'd get him biting on every fake as well, even with takedowns. I don't think you can have a better matchup for Flick honestly. It will be interesting seeing where lines go on Flick and for Smith in their next fights. I do agree - Flick can have trouble with a lot of guys who can implement sprawl and brawl. Smith also is probably a threat to guys who are mediocre on the ground.
My initial read was flick is on a different level of grappling. He’s going to catch smith in an arm triangle.
I watched flick get mounted and dominated in an old fight against a lesser wrestler. But I think something was wrong with flick. He was almost puking between rounds and you could just tell he didn’t have much in the tank
smith had some great grappling exchanges in his last few fights. Good explosions and scrambles. I thought he might be able to replicate that to some extent with flick, and didn’t think the +135 was worth the risk. I also thought his standup would improve with the gyms he’s been at (factory x and elevation) and he’s be able to get the better of flick. Boy was I wrong
flicks sub transitions completely overwhelmed smith, and there may have been a bit of adrenaline cardio dump from the first grappling exchange.
I also didn’t want to overrate flicks grappling, because he isn’t nearly as effective from bottom and the guy he beat to win the lfa title was another shogun fights guy who hadn’t faced anyone nearly as good as flick in jiu jitsu.
I’m second guessing myself way too much. I did the same thing last week with Flores and alves and alves itd line was +240. I should’ve been all over that and his ml when it was at plus odds.
I watched smith first and then flicks tape. I even went back to 2012 and watched his no gi match with Bedford. Flick was competing in tourneys before smith was even an amateur
The ptv was obvious and the best play on the card. It was a terrible matchup for smith.
I was super pissed last night at my performance. I didn’t go back far enough in tape for Lawrence. I liked him too but liked the experience and stand up of Johnson better. Didn’t think Lawrence was capable of a pace like that and a wrestling heavy gameplan