Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by BigSteve, Nov 15, 2020.
Tape study should be easy, 3 returning guys
My three most solid picks are hatchett, lutz and buys. I got Pauline and maximov as low confident picks purely due to wrestling. I will be putting my most confident picks in parlays tho and might bet on their lines if the odds are decent.
Chelsea Hackett -245
JP Buys -300
Nick Maximov -350
Buys around -300 feels like an awful price. He's an okay wrestler from South Africa who tends to fade after rd 1. He's still young and now training at Fortis, but it feels like he's gonna eventually get cracked if Silva can put up any tdd and get out of the 1st.
Silva has shit TDD which is a problem, but he has the cardio to get up and crack for 3
Thoughts on the main event? It seems like Maximov is a potential future star in the UFC. Very strong wrestler, experienced BJJ competitor, training with Diaz bros. But if it weren't for the mild hype behind him, I'm seeing every red flag I wouldn't want to see.
He's faced complete garbage MMA competition so far. Literally his best opponent is 1-2. He's taking this fight at HW with a 55 lb weight disparity and a wrestling gameplan. Cota is pretty experienced and has at least enough wrestling/bjj competence that he could smash on the attempts. Cota's also pretty agile for his size too with some decent cardio. It seems like Maximov mostly trains with smaller guys and now he has to try to wrestle an experienced max-weight HW.
No tape watch but why is 4-0 macias +160 against 4-2 de Paula?
Why Lutz? I'm pretty big on Black
300 on JP Buys for 1.31
340 to win 200 blackledge -170
I just threw a bunch on Cota too. He has a 50lb advantage, and started his MMA career 9 years earlier.
If he can shrug off the takedowns or explode up, he wins.
Big task, but at +375 I'll roll the dice. 100 to win 375
Yup I'm basically just small on Cota + Silva here. Both have very realistic paths to victory at +350/+375. Can't pass that up.
I hate wiki capping, but Maximov's 5-0 record consists of:
Johnny James Jr, 1-2 record, Welterweight
Robert Allensworth, 1-11 record, Middleweight
William Hope, 0-1 record(weight class not listed
Brun Casillas, 0-3 record, LHW
Nick Piechuh, 0-3 record, LHW.
Like ...what? I don't know if this has been discussed, but his opponents have a combined record of fucking 2-20.
Cota is no world beater, but he's better than that competition by far...
I went into taping wanting to dog bet Leonardo, but I think the line is justified. She's really not very good. Decent ground game, striking is mediocre at best, doesn't really wrestle offensively. Hackett has surprisingly solid wrestling for being new to MMA and isn't afraid to use it herself. She hasn't fought any elite competition yet but I think she handles Leonardo here.
Gonna tail you guys on Cota.. JP+hacket in 1.6 parlay.
Also putting every fight over rounds in a x20 parlay
Both Hackett and Leonardo can get that work.
Gave Hackett rd 1 and live bet her
i guess 1-0 leonardo but hard to know what the judges score. she did nothing with the takedown and that's worked against fighters like that recently.
lol Amateur. Keep turning back and forth but cant just push the knee simply
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