Saskatoonmike**
Brown Belt
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I don't think luck exists in a fight, at least not the way people use it. Its not like they're rolling dice, and if someone rolls a natural 20 they get a critical hit. Basically, someone who gets a one hit KO got that KO because of physical attributes, training, timing, skill and the ability to recognize an opportunity in the split second it occurs. Its why I could get into the ring with Klitchko, or cage with Cain, and throw hundreds of punches (assuming they were content to just let me throw punches because I'd paid them a lot of money not to hit me back) and still never KO them - I lack the ability.
What a one punch (or kick) KO tells you is that the person who threw it has the power, timing, and skill to finish with one punch. Same thing with a guy who gets a submission - the finish is a reflection of skill. It also gives you information on the loser - they lack the chin to take the shot, or make mistakes that lead to the punch or submission.
What a dominating performance like what Cain did to JDS, or what GSP has down several times, tells is that a person has great general skills, but lacks finishing ability. And it tells you loser (if they've finished before) has weaknesses in general skills to off set their finishing ability.
So you learn a lot from both cases. Its like comparing high batting average singles hitters to low batting average home run hitters - the high batting average guys are going to get on base more consistently, the home run hitters are going to hit it further when they do hit.
Of course, ideally you're both dominating and good at finishing - Anderson Silva for the most part is an example of this.
From the first two JDS-Cain fights, we learned something from both fights. From the first we learned that JDS has finishing power, and that Cain can be finished. From the second we learned that Cain has better general skills, but doesn't have finishing ability (or that JDS's ability to defend against finishes is greater than Cain's ability to finish).
They're different kinds of skills, and they're independent to a large extent. Personally, as I've said, I find finishes more impressive than dominanting decisions, because the person is still in the fight at the end of the decision, bloodied as he might be. If they let the finisher go on without the referee stepping in, they could win a very dominating decision by beating up on their unconscious opponent. In the case of the decision, there's always a chance that the guy who was losing can turn it around (like Anderson did in his first fight against Sonnen). That's not the case with a finish.
I agree that 'luck' is not the right term.
We should speak of probability.
Serra was not lucky when he caught GSP. He intended the punch and it landed. that said the probability of hhim landing that punch is low. He could fight GSP and 10 other top guy many times and never land that punch despite throwing it but eventually it will land. It happened to land in the one fight with GSP and the probability was low but his skill made it land.
That is the challenge with a quick finish. Was Serra the better fighter? If he knocked GSP out the next time we would likely say yes. But I think ost of us bet he loses 9 of 10 times if not more.
remove Serra and GSP specifically and just put in Fighter X and Fighter Y and the same scenario and you never really know with the quick finish if Fighter X is actually better in that specific matchup. Even JDS with a history of KO's still had the huge lingering question pre fight hanging over him as to whether the punch and win was repeatable and the probability of it. Who was in fact better? that question looming pissed off a lot of JDS fans and people who like to think any finish tells us a lot but we all saw that you simply cannot assume a high probability of repeat with a flash finish. You actually need to see them fight again to really know.
