Some people will call me crazy, but they have to stop acting like Junior's boxing is amazing. It really isn't.
Gustafsson takes a pretty convincing decision over Junior IMO.
I don't think he'd knock him out, but you never know. Gustafsson is really sneaky with the right hand, whether it be the straight or the uppercut, he gets you from weird angles sometimes.
Junior may have a great chin, but you can only take so many shots. If Gus hurt him, he isn't going to swarm and throw punches into the wind, he's going to pick his shots very intelligently. No matter how great your chin is, if somebody hurts you and keeps landing clean, it can still put you down.
Maybe he could get the TKO if Junior does a poor job defending himself. Gus is one of the most dangerous fighters in the world when he has you hurt because he doesn't overcommit and just go crazy, he picks his shots intelligently, making him more accurate.
That said, I really do think Gus would take the decision for sure over Junior. I think Gustafsson's boxing is better than his. His overall movement is better and I think he dances circles around Junior and picks him apart and hurts him a few times at least.
Junior's boxing isn't nearly as good as some people think it is. It's not bad, but it's not great either. I think Gustafsson's got much better boxing than him. His defense is better, his counters are better, his footwork/overall movement is better, etc.
I think Gus would push a high pace, keep Junior on his heels and push him towards the fence with combinations. Junior seems to get very uncomfortable when his opponent is the aggressor and they force him to move backwards and rely on countering. Junior's counters aren't bad, but they aren't that great. Junior often drops his hands when his back is near the fence as well and I believe that is because he thinks his opponent is going to shoot for a TD.
If Gus can play it right, he can probably make Junior drop his hands and he can tag him with some shots. Gus is able to control the range very well, even when he's pushing forward with punches.
I don't see how Junior 'wrecks' him like so many people are saying. Gus would give Junior hell and Gus takes home a pretty convincing decision IMO.
This isn't to say Junior can't win. As I said - his boxing is good, but not as good as some people think it is. He relies on a lot of the same set ups and he throws almost nothing more than 1-3 punches at a time, which is, in my opinion, one of the big reasons that Stipe was so successful. Stipe knew that Junior wasn't going to throw many big combinations at him and that's why you see Stipe literally just drop his hands when he's standing right in front of Junior sometimes. Not because he was tired, because he knew Junior wasn't going to throw more than 1-3 punches.
The only time we really see Junior throw a longer combination is when he hurts somebody, that's really is. And he ends his combinations off the same almost every single time. He'll end it with the overhand, the uppercut or the left hook.
Gustafsson sets his punches up much better with angles and has a variety of different attacks/set ups to land his best strikes. He has that very, very sneaky right hand that comes in at weird angles sometimes and he's also pretty accurate. Unlike Junior, Gus doesn't throw everything at 100% and that makes him more accurate. Junior throws almost everything at 100% and will punch air a lot because of it.
Gustafsson will throw straight punches but not at 100%, but he's still landing. He's got some accurate hands and the placement is very good. He's able to move his feet and close the distance very well with his jab and then come with that right hand.
Junior rolls with shots pretty well, but he does keep his head on center a lot and he's extremely hittable because of it. I think Gustafsson takes advantage of this because he's very good with distance control and again, doesn't throw at 100%, making him more accurate. He confuses guys with it because it's not always the most powerful strike, but they're still getting tagged from it.
All in all, I really do believe that Gustafsson would take a convincing decision over Junior. Junior has the power to beat anybody but I believe Gustafsson is the better boxing from a technical standpoint, he's got better hands, better overall movement, better defense, etc, etc.
This is not an easy fight for Junior like so many believe and Junior's boxing is not as good as so many believe.
Heavyweight or not, Gustafsson is the better boxer than him and would give him serious fits on the feet and mash his face.
