Of the six key swing states that will most likely determine the election, the general expectation is that Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona are in a good place to count most of their votes on election night or soon afterward. Of course, the closer the margin in any of these states is, the longer it will take to settle who won, and unexpected problems may arise. But these states have at least done the bare minimum to prepare for the unprecedented number of mailed ballots pouring in this year.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — the trio of states that clinched Trump’s victory in 2016 — are a different story. Republican legislatures in each have almost totally refused to update antiquated policies on how mailed ballots will be processed and counted. So these states could take days to finish their counts.