but as I explained in the OP, that's not the main reason. The main reason is simply how good he seems to be. (see: the part of the OP about Hype/Potential/Momentum) it's the same reason Glover is a big favorite over Rampage Jackson despite never having fought anyone close to Rampage's level.
Oddmakers and fans somehow knew that Overeem was almost certainly going to beat Werdum.
In a "possible future fight" oddsmakers even had Overeem favored to beat Fedor BEFORE Fedor lost to Werdum.
Why is that? Because despite not completely proving it yet with a bunch of top wins, people can just tell how good he is. (Of course the grand prix and demolishing brett rogers after he nearly beat fedor helped a lot too)
I know people will say this isn't K1 and people will discredit Brett Rogers (despite how close he came to beating Fedor and how easily he demolished Arlovski) but I can see how great Alistair is. No one ever ragdolled Crocop the way he did before the lowblows. Not even in all his past his prime losses has Crocop looked as bad as he did against Overeem.
Alistair Overeem is the best striker Heavyweight has ever seen; plus very well rounded. He's got a great ability to take people down with throws/tosses, he has amazing GNP, he has fantastic submissions.
He's proven his takedown defense against the #1 guy he needed to prove it against.
What more is there? Oh that's right, people think the MMA boxer JDS can crack his "glass jaw"
The whole idea of him having a glass jaw btw, is 90% based on LHW fights in which he was drained and fatigued, and a fight against Sergei Kharitonov, one of the hardest punchers in MMA, back when Alistair was still fighting with the body of a LHW (that fight literally happened 7 months after his 2nd loss to shogun at lhw)
since the Sergei fight... where's his "glass jaw" been? He went to K1 for gods sake. The only person in k1 to finish him was the man considered to be the best in all of K1 and he only did it via two technical knockdowns (in which alistair was stumbling more than anything)
that's not a glass jaw...
glass jaw is someone like gabe gonzaga or arlovski who suddenly turns off like a light when the power goes out as soon as someone touches the chin.
People's idea of a glass jaw when it comes to Alistair is Tyrone Spong LIGHTLY stunning him enough to make him cover up (he wasn't even stumbling) and that's Tyrone f'n Spong, a way better striker than Junior.
but if your minds made up i guess there's nothing I can say. Your'e just going to have to see it for yourself.
Because some fluke or injury aside, I expect Alistair to walk through Bigfoot effortlessly and then dominate JDS.
Cain is the only real threat because he can throw strikes while alistair is worried about the takedown (like werdum did---but something reem won't worry about with JDS)