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In theory, I do support overthrowing every theocracy in the world (Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Pakistan). But at the same time, the cost of doing so is just such a clusterfuck and it takes so much meticulous planning from every border of the aisle for it to work....I believe that doing this would be even more disasterous than Iraq or Afghanistan. Iraq and Afghanistan have more recent histories of secularism. Iran has been Islamic Republic for 45 yrs, Hussein's invasion which killed 500k Iranians was not enough for a counter revolution to revert it back into a secular society. I don't think Israel shelling it to bits will either. Additionally, this would also require American Troops to get on the ground which would be even more of a disaster given how many mountains and bases are honeycombed inside them in Iran.
Nonetheless, if the centeralized power in Iran goes down. We are looking at the following outcomes:
Nonetheless, if the centeralized power in Iran goes down. We are looking at the following outcomes:
- The Inevitable Immolation of Iran as a state, there would be space for fracturing it into of Balochistan/Kurdistan.
- A more fertile ground for ISIS and the Taliban to recruit from and use as a base to destabilize neighboring states.
a. This would place the region’s small minorities—such as polytheists and Christians—on the brink of extinction, similar to what occurred in Afghanistan during the Taliban resurgence. - Turkey intervening to suppress Kurdish sovereignty.
- Turkey arming Azeri gangs to expand its sphere of influence.
- Pakistan intervening to suppress Balochi separatism.
- A potential future refugee crisis affecting Western countries.
- Backlash from Iran’s allies—Russia, China, and India. Unlike the Baathist regime in Iraq or Gaddafi’s Libya, the Iranian regime is not as isolated; the world is less likely to tolerate its collapse.
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